Fernando Tatis Jr. The Leadoff Hitter Is The Best Version Of Padres' Superstar

[Randy Holt]

On Thursday, Fernando Tatis Jr. became the first member of the San Diego Padres with 2+ hits and 2+ steals on Opening Day. If his new role starts to become permanent, that may be the type of thing we can expect to see a little more of moving forward.

Despite rumblings that the team could try to move pending free agent Luis Arráez during the past offseason, the three-time batting champion is still on the roster. His expected role in the lineup, however, has already started to shift. During each of the Padres' first two games, Mike Shildt elected to go with Fernando Tatis Jr. out of the leadoff spot rather than Arráez. 

The results have been stellar. Tatis has four hits in his first eight plate appearances, with the pair of steals on Thursday and a leadoff home run on Friday that came on the first pitch of the bottom of the first inning. He's scored three of the four times he's reached base, with the Padres grabbing the first two of four against Atlanta. On the other side of the coin, Arráez doesn't have a hit yet in his own eight PAs. But he does have a walk and a sacrifice fly. 

While two games isn't going to tell us a whole lot about defined roles, it does at least give us some insight into what Shildt may be trying to accomplish out of that top spot in the order. 

Arráez is obviously an exceptional hitter. He's hit .316, .354, and .314 in each of the last three seasons, respectively. But he's also become more of a one-note presence atop the order in that same set of years. He's never hit for any notable power, but his walk rate has declined, to the point where he maintained a BB% of just 3.6 last year. That's not as much of a concern when you're hitting that much, but his nine steals were also more than twice his previous career high. You're looking at a high volume of balls in play, but not as much in other areas with Arráez as your leadoff hitter. 

Which is probably part of what Mike Shildt's thinking is regarding Fernando Tatis Jr in such a role. 

For his career (749 PA), Tatis has a wRC+ of 159 with a .311/.376/.603/.973 slash in that top spot. He also has a .292 ISO and 8.8 BB%. Given the impact, it makes sense that he'd spend most of his time as the no. 2 hitter in the order. At the same time, the emergence of Jackson Merrill and health of a few key contributors down the lineup makes a swap here a bit more logical. 

With Tatis, you're obviously getting the possibility of electricity right out of the gate, as we saw on Friday night. But the leadoff profile has shifted from a balls-in-play-plus-baserunning guy to someone with a little extra something. Tatis happens to have a little bit of extra everything. Now that he's fully healthy, though, we're also likely to start seeing the baserunning side of it more frequently. He stole 25 bags in 2022 and 29 in 2023. Last year, he was down to 11 given the stress reaction in his femur. 

So you've got the extra pop and a potential demon on the base paths out of your top spot. That allows Arráez to slide down a spot with his contact skills. If Tatis is running in front of him, that puts the Padres in a position to add some runs early. From there, you get into Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and an assortment of quality bats beyond those two. It's an entirely logical construction atop the lineup, especially given how frequently the Padres had to come from behind in 2024. They came back 38 times last year, including five times in the ninth inning. 

Getting Tatis atop your lineup has the potential to change the dynamic of some of these games. Playing with a lead can take the pressure off of a lineup and a pitching staff, while saving some juice for the end of the season. If the Padres are hoping to stave off the type of disappointment they experienced last October, that juice will come in handy. 

View full article

[Brandon Glick]

Nice write up, Randy. Totally agree he adds a new dynamic atop the lineup. Love what the Phillies do with Schwarber, and I think this will be the same for San Diego.