Nick Pivetta Will Enjoy Expansive Petco Park And San Diego

[Brett Schlageter]

The Green Monster and Fenway Park weren't doing Nick Pivetta any favors. He should find San Diego more fitting for his pitching profile.

Nick Pivetta made quite the Padres debut on Sunday, pitching seven innings of one-hit shutout baseball. Pivetta turned down the Boston Red Sox's Qualifying Offer in the offseason and opted for the free agency market. The San Diego Padres signed him to a 4-year deal for $55 million with an opt-out in 2026 and 2027.

I must admit, I was unfamiliar with Pivetta’s game when AJ Preller signed him; I can only recall an outing in the 2021 postseason. It was game three of the divisional series against the Rays, and he came into the game in the 10th inning. Pivetta had seven strikeouts in four innings and picked up the win. Looking back at that outing, he was electric. He hits the top of the zone with his fastball and spins his curve or sweeper low for strikeouts. Watching the Sunday night game against the Braves looked very similar in approach. The fastball was sitting at 94mph, and Pivetta had excellent command of it. When he threw his fastball up in the zone, hitters swung right underneath it, signaling that I needed more research about his stuff.

Diving into his Baseball Savant page, I found some interesting numbers. Pivetta’s fastball has an elite spin rate, averaging 2300 revolutions per minute (RPM). That type of spin rate gives batters the deception of the pitch rising, especially when used in the upper part of the strike zone; the ball looks like it is rising because it isn’t dropping as much as expected. On all pitches thrown from the mound, gravity plays a part in the movement; however, if you can spin the ball at an elite level, batters will swing directly under it because they expect gravity to do more work. ESPN broadcast highlighted this point during the broadcast and did the math. Nick Pivetta’s fastball drops three fewer inches than the MLB average.

It’s not only Pivetta’s fastball that has an above-average spin rate; his sweeper and curveball also have some great spin. Baseball Savant registers Pivetta throwing a slider and a sweeper, but the sweeper is his second most-used pitch at 25.6% usage. The slider usage is only 3.5% so that I will stick to the sweeper's pitch profile. The sweeper is mostly thrown to right-handed batters with an average velocity of 82.4 mph. The shape of the sweeper doesn’t have the elite bite to it, and by that, I mean vertical and horizontal drop to it. More specifically, the sweeper has three inches' less drop than the MLB average. Think of it as moving from right to left at league average, but it won’t move vertically in the zone compared to some elite sweepers. Pivetta often uses this pitch to get batters away from sitting fastball and then inducing weak contact. The whiff rate on this pitch is 35.1%, which is good and speaks to pitch sequencing being a big part of Pivetta’s game.

Nick Pivetta’s secondary pitch to left-handed batters is a traditional curveball. Think of the traditional 12 to 6 movement and locate it at the bottom of the zone. He is not afraid to throw his curveball as a first pitch and also lands his curveball for a strike very well. The spin rate on this particular pitch is averaging slightly above 2800 rpm (the MLB average spin rate on curveballs sits around 2500 rpm). For reference, some elite curveballs can spin above 3000 rpm. The key to having a good curveball is not only a good spin rate but also location and sequencing. Throwing the curveball as the first pitch in an at-bat, it needs to land for a strike, but it can’t be a hanging curveball. Using the curveball as an out pitch usually works best by locating it at the bottom or just outside the bottom of the zone. Pitch sequencing is a major factor, especially since Pivetta has great command of his fastball.

Taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture of Nick Pivetta, his earned run average (ERA) over his career is 4.76. At first glance, this number is alarming, but he pitched in Fenway Park his entire career and the AL East is a tough division to pitch in. It seems like Pivetta did not like the Green Monster in Boston. Pitching half his games in Petco (where fly balls go to die), Pivetta could easily post a career-low ERA. The Padres' pitching coach, Rueben Niebla, has a history of tweaking some minor things in a pitcher’s profile and finding great success.

Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha were examples of Rueben Niebla’s coaching ability; Wacha and Lugo had great seasons with the Padres and later scored big in the free-agent market. I don’t think this is a knee-jerk/overreaction take; Nick Pivetta will have his best season pitching for the Padres in 2025. Pivetta has a fiery presence on the mound, which goes along with an above-average spin on pitches with some great pitch sequencing. Pivetta’s biggest problem was the home run ball, which will settle down as he makes most of his starts in Petco Park.

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