The Padres Have A Bit Of A Power Outage. Does It Even Matter?

[Randy Holt]

Whether it's a bug or a feature, we're about to test how far a lack of power to supplement an offense can take an otherwise formidable club. 

The San Diego Padres do a lot of things well at the plate. As of this writing, they lead the league in batting average (.276) and on-base percentage (.346), and sit third in wRC+ (119). They walk at the league's ninth-highest clip (9.4 percent) and strike out at the league's lowest (17.2 percent). Their 25 steals are ninth in the league. Again, they do a lot of things well. 

There are also things they do... less well. And those things happen to be just as crucial to an offense as the above indicators. Their 6.5 Barrel% is 28th, and their 38.4 Hard-Hit% ranks 25th. Their .147 ISO comes in at 14th. It's these factors that have the Padres with only the 14th-most runs (97) in the league through roughly a month, despite a record that has them as one of the best handful of clubs. 

In fact, the Padres' power output is doing less for them than most other clubs. 

During Saturday's broadcast, there was a graphic regarding the lowest percentage of runs scored via home run. The Padres' 22 homers sit 18th in the league, with the volume accounting for only 27 runs. That means that home runs are responsible for only 28 percent of the team's run total this season. 

For some additional context, this doesn't even look like the teams around them in the run production game. Baltimore (98 runs) has had 46 percent of their production generated by home runs. Seattle (98) has had 45 percent of their runs come via the longball. The Athletics (95 runs) have had home runs coming in at 44 percent responsible, the Rays (94) have had 35 percent, and the Marlins (also 94) have had 31 percent. Even teams with less overall power, like Tampa Bay or Miami, have derived more meaning out of it. 

There's a certain degree of objectivity in noting that a team needs power in the long-term. Ten of the 12 playoff teams from last year ranked in the top half of the league in runs scored; six of those teams sat in the top 10 in the league in ISO. Three of the top seven reached the Championship Series stage of the postseason, with two of the top three reaching the World Series. You can survive, to an extent, without it, but it sure does make your life a whole lot easier. 

Which brings us to two questions are far as the San Diego Padres are concerned: 

• Is this absence of impactful home run power something temporary or a permanent fixture of their offense? 
• Can they survive without a high volume of home runs contributing to the larger context of their offense?

In terms of the first one, it does appear to be something at least mildly temporary. Of the team's top ISO hitters, each of Jackson Merrill (.297) and Jake Cronenworth (.229) remain out. They combined for five homers and 15 runs knocked in prior to their respective injuries. Their imminent returns should help drive up the rate of runs wrought by the longball at least a little bit. One also imagines there's a bit more power in Manny Machado's bat than we've seen to this point. He started off slow in the ISO game last year too before heating up in the summer. 

But, at the same time, we knew this Padres offense would be top heavy. Luis Arráez is a key component of the lineup. Xander Bogaerts hasn't hit for power since, like, 2019. It's a group supplemented by the likes of Jose Iglesias, Jason Heyward (when healthy), and a combination of Martín Maldonado & Elías Díaz behind the plate. There just isn't a lot of power to speak of. 

What doesn't help is that because of that dearth of offensive impact in the bottom half of the lineup, the team's most powerful hitter isn't able to generate run production as part of his power displays. Fernando Tatis Jr has a .333 ISO and eight home runs already, but only 16 runs knocked in. He's led off an inning (whether to begin a game or otherwise) with a home run in four of those eight instances. That's the downside to having him in the leadoff spot. But with how effective the Padres are protecting leads, getting Tatis an extra opportunity to create one rather than wishing for baserunners in front of him seems like the more practical strategy at this point. 

Ultimately, though, it's not as if this is anything to express an active concern about. The Padres are not a healthy team. It's going to hurt their ability to produce runs. But even a fully healthy San Diego squad needs to be present and efficient on the basepaths in order to generate runs, more so than on the power side. While power makes your life easier, it's not the only way to generate offense. The Padres should remain a fairly solid case study of that.

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