Xander Bogaerts Is Getting Faster At The Plate (And Worse)

[Randy Holt]

At present, the San Diego Padres are a team starved for offense. Even with the return of Luis Arráez, there's a level of impact that will remain absent from the lineup for the foreseeable future, given that they are still without Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth indefinitely. 

That's left the team struggling to drum up any level of run production outside of what Fernando Tatis Jr. provides. Manny Machado isn't hitting for a lot of power; Gavin Sheets is striking out too much to be a consistent threat (despite his overall improvement). There simply aren't a lot of avenues for supplementary offense when you're missing key starters, especially when Xander Bogaerts is playing the way he is. 

Bogaerts' line includes an average of just .243 and a strikeout rate at its highest point since 2014. There are some positives mixed in (he's working a career-best 11.0 percent walk rate), but it's all culminated in a wRC+ of just 90. Coming off a season in which he produced a mark of 95, the last two seasons have seen below average production from a player with another eight years on his contract.

The most concerning factor regarding Bogaerts' underwhelming production, though, lies in the lack of any real impact (read: power). While only occasionally a 20+ home run guy, Bogaerts has yet to get one ball over the fence as the calendar turns to May. [Note: This piece was written ahead of Bogaerts' first home run on Tuesday night. The homer came vs. a slider, which is notable considering the points made from here.]

His isolated slugging checks in at a mere .084. So, while he's been able to get on base and swipe the occasional bag (four steals as of this writing), there isn't a lot of contribution to the run production game from a player who spends a good deal of time in the middle of the order. 

It's somewhat paradoxical, too. 

Bogaerts' bat speed is actually up. His average speed sits at 71.9 MPH and in the 53rd percentile. Last year, he was more than a mile per hour slower (and in the 28th percentile). When you combine a guy who's swinging a faster bat with a guy that has one of the better approaches in matters of chase and whiff, it would seem like a logical formula for success. Especially in the "driving the ball" department. That's not the case with Bogaerts, however. 

While he's maintaining a keen approach in not expanding the zone and not striking out a bunch with that faster bat, he's also making less overall contact — his overall Contact% is down three percent, at 80.3 for the year. It's become especially egregious outside the strike zone. Despite being more choose-y on such pitches, his contact rate on pitches outside of the zone has plummeted by more than 10 percent (50.0). 

The trend itself exists as a paradox. He's a patient hitter with quicker bat somehow can't generate quality contact. It then becomes much more real when looking at the type of pitch for which Bogaerts is most likely to expand the zone: 

That's a steep jump in the chase rate against off-speed pitches, in particular. At 53.3 percent, it also stands as the pitch type he's whiffing at the most on those out-of-zone swings. Unsurprisingly, the off-speed pitch is responsible for his lowest average exit velocity in six of his last seven seasons. There just aren't a lot of ways to win for Bogaerts when he's pursuing the off-speed pitch, especially when it's not within the strike zone. 

Which leaves us looking at these swing speed figures and making easy sense out of them. Yes, the swing is faster. But his squared-up rate on percentage of contact is down almost five percent (32.3). It presents a frustrating trend given the strides made in the speed itself and in the approach. There's clearly a re-evaluation of said approach needed here in matters of pitch type. 

Even last year's iteration of Bogaerts didn't include much power. But he was able to derive some out of the fact that he put some separation between fastballs and off-speed pitches in the way he attacked each pitch type. Fastballs were the priority. And while he didn't entirely avoid the off-speed stuff, he was able to swing at a higher frequency against the hard stuff, out of which he was able to salvage some of the power that hasn't been super present since, like, 2021. That's not happening this year, and this is the result you find. 

Should Bogaerts find some discipline in matters of pitch types, the newfound bat speed should help him to generate a bit more impact for a Padres team that desperately needs it. In the interim, though, the Padres are getting a guy that they have no shortage of on this roster: someone who can get on base, but can't drive in the players already there.

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