Searching for Manny Machado's Lost Power Stroke

[Randy Holt]

In a number of respects, Manny Machado is the best he's been in years. But the power side isn't one of them. 

The total body of work indicates an essential component of the San Diego Padres' lineup. Machado's line includes a .295 average, .360 on-base percentage, 16.9% strikeout rate, and a 9.6% walk rate. It all culminates in a 131 wRC+. The K% is his best since 2021, and everything else represents his best work since '22. But despite combining for 91 home runs over the three years prior to 2025, that element of his game has been almost entirely absent thus far. 

Machado has just three home runs to his credit this season and a .164 ISO. The latter figure represents a decline in each year since the aforementioned '22 campaign, but it also stands as his lowest since 2014, when he appeared in only 82 games and posted a .153 mark. What's weird, though, is that it doesn't entirely jive with what his outcomes should be, given batted ball data. 

As of this writing, Machado's hard hit rate sits in the 96th percentile (57.0 percent). His 12.0 Barrel% is in the 70th percentile and is a percentage point higher than last season. And it's not as if he's making different swing decisions. His swing rates and contact rates are within a point of last year's output. 

Pitch types haven't changed in any meaningful way as far as the power discussion goes, either. There's a notable change, but not one that we'd expect to impact him: 

That's a steep drop in the swing rate vs. off-speed pitches (41.1 percent). It's roughly a 10 percent drop off of what was roughly a six percent drop between '23 and '24. At no point has off-speed represented a source of launch angle. In only one season was it the pitch responsible for his highest fly ball rate. That was in 2014. So while it's the only notable change, it's also not responsible for the waning power output from Machado. 

His presence within the zone might give us some sense of where the power has gone, though. Here's Machado's fly ball distribution within the zone thus far in 2025: 

And here's his career: 

You could make an argument that there's some meat being left on the bone on the inner part of the plate. Especially up and in. It's a case. But much of his career ISO has come from middle-middle and middle-up. So while he might be able to derive more power from attacking that portion of the zone a bit more frequently, it's difficult to say with any certainty what such an increase would look like.

If we're still looking for a case, could we blame bat speed? Machado's is on its third consecutive season of decline. He was at a 76.7 MPH average in 2023 and sits at 74.5 MPH this year. His rate of fast swings (over 75 MPH) is also significantly lower over that stretch, dropping from 66.3 percent two years ago to 43.5 percent now. Is it possible that even with solid plate discipline metrics and a steady rate of barrel contact that Machado's bat just doesn't have the same strength that it used to? 

That feels like an oversimplification. At the same time, it might not be too far off. He's only 32, but that body has been through plenty (including a surgery within the last two years). 

We'll keep an eye on both dynamics moving forward. Perhaps it's simply the portion of the zone where Machado is operating. Maybe it is age. Either way, it's a concerning development. While the team will get Jackson Merrill & Jake Cronenworth back in the coming days, additional pop from Machado would go a long way toward stabilizing the team's top-heavy offense.

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