Gavin Sheets Is Mashing, But Is He Trustworthy?

[Randy Holt]

Somewhat predictably, the San Diego Padres' approach to constructing the roster has come through as something of a mixed bag. Such is the case when you supplement your upper-tier offensive talent with a host of non-roster invitees and past-their-prime-but-recognizable names. In some cases, the team did both.

On one hand, you've got those like Yuli Gurriel and Jason Heyward. One has already found his way into free agency given an underwhelming performance, while the other could soon follow. On the other, you've got Gavin Sheets, who, in certain respects, looks like the ideal change-of-scenery guy. But, there's a fine line between being a reliable addition and being an early-season flash. We're still not entirely sure which Sheets is. 

While Sheets was never a top-tier prospect for the Chicago White Sox, he did earn a 54-game sample with the team back in 2021. He posted a 123 wRC+ across 179 plate appearances, providing steady value in the power (.256 ISO) and on-base (.324 OBP) departments. He was unable to replicate those numbers in any of the three subsequent seasons, however. As the Sox began their plight, so too did Sheets. Combined with the lack of a defensive home (or a proper defensive skill set), it's not difficult to see why a former mid-level prospect with big power had to settle for a minor league deal this past offseason. And as far as the NRI-type signings go, Sheets has landed among the top in providing value for his new squad... mostly. 

In a number of different respects, Sheets has been better than he was during that rookie year on the South Side of Chicago. His wRC+ sits at 126, he's reaching base at a .333 clip, and his average is nearly 30 points higher than it was in '21 (.281). His percentile rankings (via Baseball Savant) indicate that there's clearly some impact in that bat. His Hard-Hit% (55.7) sits in the 95th, while his average exit velocity (89.7 MPH) is in the 89th. When Sheets makes contact, he's making it count. 

It's the making contact portion of that concept, though, which is proving to be a bit of a struggle. 

Sheets' overall Contact% is down about six percent from last season (73.2 percent). His whiff rate is up about three percent (12.3). It's all led to a strikeout rate that is the highest of his career (26.5 percent). Interestingly, though, it's not as if Sheets is expanding the zone at some otherworldly clip or struggling against breaking pitches. Instead, he's just... missing, particularly when he expands the zone.

When Sheets has swung outside the strike zone in his career, he's made contact at a 67.1 percent rate. This year, that number sits at just 53.5 percent. It's the lowest rate of his career by a fairly wide margin. And there's no discernible pitch type against which those whiffs are coming. In fact, the most concerning element of the chase-and-miss trend is that fastballs represent the heaviest increase: 

Sheets is missing fastballs he chases 39.0 percent of the time. That's nearly twice what it was last year. What doesn't make particular sense is that Sheets' bat speed is actually up. What was a problem early in his career has evolved into a much faster swing. He's at a 74.0 MPH average and a 44.5 percent rate of fast swings this year. Both are career-high marks, with the latter checking in vastly higher than any rate he's posted in any of the last three seasons.

So, why such substantial whiffs against the hard stuff? The easy explanation is that he's trying to attack the fastball. He's at a 53.6 percent swing rate against the hard stuff, which is a four percent increase from last year and 12 percent higher than any other pitch type. By attempting to zero in on the fastball, he's losing a sense of the zone, and that's resulting in more whiffs. It's also why the contact looks so good when it happens, but it's pinning down his ability to put the ball in play to begin with.

Which spells questions for Gavin Sheets' longer-term fit with the Padres. With roughly four reliable bats in the order, this is a team in need of contact above all. They need balls in play to supplement the on-base skills that are more exclusively reserved for the reliable ones atop the order. While Sheets can provide impact on occasion (still valuable!), his feast-or-famine outcomes wrought by inconsistent contact are a contributing factor in a weekend like we just saw out of San Diego, when they scored three runs total across three games. 

Does that mean his role should be reduced? Probably not. There just isn't impact to be found elsewhere, even on an inconsistent basis. But it's not like his presence is going to preclude them from making an addition. Not unless he can reign in the approach to make him viable in a role more than his current Occasional DH, Pinch-Hit Guy™.

View full article