Where Did The Padres' Power Go?

[Artur Ivanov]

If you asked most Padres fans which recent Padres team was the most fun to watch throughout the season, chances are a lot of them will say the 2024 team. 

What’s not to love about that team? They made it to the NLDS, they got career years out of players like Jurickson Profar and Kyle Higashioka, and their bullpen was lights out at the end of the season. One key aspect of that team that stood out was the offensive numbers the team put up; the 2024 Padres were top 10 in almost all offensive categories and led the league in batting average.

Despite losing several of the key offensive contributors from that team, the Padres remain more or less in a similar position offensively. The Padres remain in the top half of the league in several key offensive categories, including batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+.

Through 45 games this season, the Padres have hit a total of 41 home runs, which ranks them 23rd in that category behind teams like the Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, and Washington Nationals. This puts them at 0.91 home runs per game, their lowest total since the 2015 Padres, who hit them at the same rate. 

To put this into perspective, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have played just three more games than the Padres this season, lead the league with 80 home runs on the year and average 1.67 home runs per game. Even a team like the Orioles, which has struggled offensively throughout the season, has run into 14 more home runs than the Padres in just one extra game.

Another alarming layer to the home run numbers is that almost 30% of the home runs hit by the team have come from one player: Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis’s 12 home runs on the season rank him first by a wide margin, with the next closest player being Gavin Sheets with six. Players like Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill, who contributed to a lot of the Padres' home runs last season, have combined for only seven home runs.  

Now, despite this home run drought, the team still boasts one of the top records in the MLB and ranks 13th in the league in runs scored per game. So what’s the big deal if the team doesn’t hit many home runs? 

First off, the Padres' offensive numbers can be seen as a bit overinflated. If you remove the two games against the Rockies, where the team scored a combined 34 runs in two games, the Padres would rank 25th with just under 3.84 runs per game. While it is unfair and unrealistic to remove this offensive outburst, it was an outlier against a really poor Rockies pitching staff.

A problem with having an offense that doesn’t hit many home runs and relies on several hits being strung together means that when players are in a drought or your best offensive players aren’t in the lineup, it is tough to score. 

During the seven-game stretch where the Padres were without Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth, and Merrill for the entire game, the Padres went 2-5. The team scored just 12 runs over that stretch, and the only two games they won were those in which they hit a home run. Even this past weekend, the team got swept by the Mariners, scoring just three combined runs, two of which came from solo home runs. This came in a weekend where Machado, Merrill, and Tatis had four combined hits. 

It’s simple: if the Padres' top sluggers aren’t stringing together hits, the team will not score runs.

But what changed? What happened between last year and this year that has caused such a sharp decline in the home run totals?

A couple of reasons can be to blame. The Padres' offseason moves are a good starting point. Between last year and this year, the Padres lost key lineup contributors who helped the team offensively last season, specifically in left field and at catcher. Profar and Kyle Higashioka combined to hit 41 home runs, a number not many people expected coming into the year. 

To make up for this loss, AJ Preller brought in Connor Joe, Jason Heyward, Elias Diaz, and Martin Maldonado. Certainly not the flashiest bunch, but neither was last year’s offseason haul. However, this group of players has combined to hit just seven home runs, and one of them is no longer with the team. 

The production the team was getting from the catcher and left field position was crucial to the team’s offensive numbers, and this year’s team just isn't getting the same production. When the star players weren't hitting, Profar and Higashioka could still run into a couple of home runs while also getting on base. This year’s replacements have mostly been automatic outs.

Another issue has been health and slow starts. Jackson Merrill hasn’t been able to contribute much to the home run totals, playing in just 20 games this season. Machado has hit just three home runs in 45 games this season, tying Luis Arraez, who has hit the same amount. Xander Bogaerts, who still hasn’t shown San Diego his Boston self, also has just three home runs. The only player who the power outage hasn’t hurt is Tatis.

So, what’s the solution?

For many of the star players, it’ll be about just staying healthy and continuing to swing the bat. Merrill needs to stay healthy because when he’s on the field, he’s hitting .367 with a .995 OPS. While Machado has not hit the ball over the wall, he has hit the ball all over the field. He’s had a .317 average and a .847 OPS to start his year, a vast improvement from his start last season. Despite only having five home runs through the same number of games as this year,  Machado still finished with 29 home runs last season. As long as Machado plays, he seemingly posts his typical numbers. With Bogaerts, it’s more complicated. His power numbers have slowly declined over the last few years, but we’ve seen him contribute more to the power numbers as of late, with three homers in his last 16 games. If he can keep this up, it’ll be a vast improvement over last season. 

As for left field and catcher, it may be time to explore other options in the form of trades. While the catcher position is thin throughout all of the majors, left field is certainly doable. Taylor Ward, who just hit two home runs against the Padres last week, is undoubtedly a viable option. He’s hit 13 home runs for a subpar Angels team that may look to move him at the deadline. The Orioles, who have had a disappointing year thus far, may look to move some of their players, including Cedric Mullins, who has 10 home runs and can certainly play left field. 

If Padres fans know one thing about AJ Preller, it’s that he will stop at nothing to fill the holes in his team’s roster if he thinks the team has a shot at contending, even if that means moving prospects. So while the Padres have lacked in the home run department, it may be just a matter of time before players revert to their usual power-hitting selves and Preller helps get a bat or two to help fill the team’s voids.

View full article