Padres Roster Construction Exposed As Slide Continues

[Randy Holt]

If you hadn't watched the San Diego Padres prior to the last five days, you'd assume their contemporaries in the run production game were, like, the Pittsburgh Pirates or Chicago White Sox. And while they do technically remain a middle-tier offensive team in most regards, with the exception of walk rate and on-base percentage, where they're closer to the top, the last four games have made it difficult to draw any other conclusions. 

These are facts: the Padres have lost four games in a row. They've scored a total of three runs across those four games. And while they've run into some quality pitching out of Seattle and, more recently, Toronto, it appears to be a byproduct of their top-heavy lineup.

Over these last four games (not including Wednesday night's "action"), only three teams have been worse in terms of wRC+. The Friars have posted a figure of 56, indicating that they are collectively 44 percent worse than the league average. Their run total (again, three) and OBP (.246) are at the very bottom, while only the White Sox have been worse in walk rate (3.6 percent). Only three teams have a lower power output than their .091 ISO. They're not getting on base. They're not finding any impact. It's a brutal offensive stretch. 

Among regulars, only Luis Arráez has provided anything of value over this stretch; he's hitting .400 and has thrown in a walk for good measure. Fernando Tatis Jr has a wRC+ that just scrapes above the average threshold, at 106. That's pretty much only courtesy of a leadoff homer he hit over the weekend. Xander Bogaerts has been better since Friday, but still checks in with a wRC+ of 99.

Outside of Arráez & Tatis, Gavin Sheets' .273 ISO is the only power the team has to speak of. Speaking of Sheets, he's hitting just .214 over this stretch, while striking out at a 26.7 percent clip and lacking even one. And he's one of the better ones. 

Jake Cronenworth is posting a wRC+ of only 60 and hasn't walked. Jackson Merrill has a wRC+ of -5 and has struck out over 40 percent of the time. Elías Díaz, who has played in all four, is at -9. Manny Machado? He's at -80 without a hit to speak of. Those four have combined for an OBP of .155. There's just nothing happening for this group. Such is the danger of assembling this type of lineup. 

You have a couple of guys who are providing at least something of value. Arráez has been legitimately good, Bogaerts is reaching base regularly, and Tatis has at least jumped in the mix with a little bit of power. However, only one of those individuals has a tangible impact. The remainder are all slumping simultaneously. When your offensive impact is concentrated this much in such a select group, you have nothing to offset the struggles. You just have to bear it until the natural ebb & flow of baseball manifests and the offense returns. It's quite a powerless construction in that regard. 

There is, at the very least, some positive news for the Padres moving forward. In getting Chris Bassitt out of the way, they're clear of the only stable Toronto starter. And while a weekend series against Atlanta won't make things any easier in finding their offensive footing, they'll at least get six games of reprieve in the form of Miami and Pittsburgh next week. The offense must figure it out, though, as the June schedule is packed with contenders.

Ultimately, however, this stretch has revealed a great deal about the team's lineup, just not in the way that you'd like to see.

View full article