Luis Arraez's Already-Slow Swing Has Slowed Down More, And It's A Problem

[Ethan Penrod]

Luis Arraez has a reputation as one of the best contact hitters in all of Major League Baseball. He is a three-time batting title champion and has built his career on his ability to put the ball in play. With that said, there has always been talk of how long he could sustain his success. 

The idea that Arraez is slowing down has largely been attributed to his inability to make hard contact. He has never had an average exit velocity over 90 mph and consistently sits at the bottom of the league in hard-hit rate. Metrics like these scream regression, and that he has been one of the luckiest hitters since entering the league. Arraez’s expected batting average, or xBA, currently sits at .274, the lowest mark of his career. This is surprising, considering the player ranked in the 100th percentile in xBA in 2023 and 2024. 

The thought that his luck is finally running out would be the initial thought, and could be correct. But once you dive into the numbers, there is a lot more at play than just luck. Arraez is literally slowing down in front of our eyes. 

The start of Arraez’s struggles dates back to June of last season, when he sustained a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his left thumb. This severely affected him, sapping strength and speed from his top hand. It didn’t take long for the metrics to pick up on the injury. In 2023, he had a hard-hit rate of 25.7%, and by September 2024, it had dropped to a career-worst 23.1%. 

This trend in metrics taking a dive has followed Arraez into the 2025 season. He is experiencing career lows in several categories; not surprisingly, his hard-hit rate has suffered the most. It has dropped from 23.7% in 2024 to 16.2% this season. Even though he has never relied on power, any player who drops 7.5% in hard-hit rate will have a down year. 

Average exit velocity is currently at a career worst for him. Since 2023, it has dropped 3.5 mph and currently sits at 84.8 mph. 

These drops in both hard-hit rate and exit velocity are large concerns. His entire identity has been surrounded by his ability to make quality contact. Now that the contact has weakened, the batted balls are less likely to turn into hits. 

What may be the biggest blow to Arraez is the issue with his bat speed. Although it is barely one mile per hour slower, the change in results is significant. He historically has crushed the inside fastball, but that is no longer the case. In 2023, he batted .464 on fastballs up and in, .421 on fastballs middle and in, and .476 on fastballs down and in. In 2024, the numbers were nearly identical, except for the fastball up and in. He batted .240 on fastballs up and in, and this season is batting .167 on that same pitch. In total, he has two hits on fastballs on the inner part of the zone.

It goes further than just the fastball on the inner half of the plate; he flat-out can’t hit fastballs. Arraez’s Run Value against all fastball types is below league average this season. He has a -1 Run Value against four-seamers, a -2 Run Value against sinkers, and a -2 Run Value against cutters. 

It is no secret to other teams across the league that Arraez can’t catch up to the fastball. It could be a preview of what is to come for the rest of the season. If he can’t show that he can beat the inside heater, pitchers may take that approach when facing him. 

If these numbers do not swing upward, he will fall out of the elite hitter category and can easily become a below league-average hitter. 

The injury could be easily attributed to the drops in numbers, but it could also be a result of a change in approach. 

Just like his metrics, his plate discipline has dropped. He has become more aggressive at the plate and is not walking often. This year, he is seeing fewer pitches outside of the zone, yet has a career-high chase rate of 36.3%. His OBP has suffered due to his tendency to chase pitches outside the zone, with a career low of .315. 

On the flip side, he is hitting for more power this season. He is currently on pace to hit 19 home runs, which would shatter his career best of 10. While that is great, that is not what is needed from him. The lineup is filled with thump at the top of the order where he resides. 

Whether it’s the injury or a change in game plan, it has steered Arraez away from the player that we have all grown accustomed to watching. His ability to manipulate the barrel seems compromised at the moment, and the soft liners are turning into weak flares. 

It is safe to say that Arraez’s xBA does not lie. It is telling the truth about what is happening with Arraez right now. That is a hard truth for both Arraez and the Friar Faithful. 

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