What’s Going On With Randy Vásquez’s Sinker?

[Alex Carl]

In baseball, run value is supposed to tell the truth. It’s a stat that attempts to boil every pitch down to its bottom-line effect on run expectancy. When a pitch gains nine runs in value over just 140 throws, it screams dominance. When that pitch posted a minus-eight run value over nearly twice as many throws as the year before, it screams confusion.

Welcome to the mystery of Randy Vasquez’s 2025 sinker.

Vasquez’s sinker has transformed from one of the worst pitches in the league in 2024 to one of the most valuable in 2025, despite virtually no change in how he throws it. The usage is about the same, the movement is about the same, and the average location is about the same. Even his velocity has dropped, from 94.2 mph to 92.9 mph. And yet, opponents are hitting just .111 against it this year, and slugging the same percentage. Last year, they hit .434 with a .592 slugging percentage against the offering. His putaway rate, the percentage of two-strike counts that end in a strikeout, has jumped from 13.5% to 22.2%.

So, how does a pitch that’s slower, generates fewer whiffs, and gives up harder contact suddenly become one of the most valuable in baseball?

Let’s start with the similarities. Vasquez’s sinker usage is nearly identical to 2024: 15.6% this year compared to 16% last year. The movement profile is also similar to last year, but with slightly more vertical drop of 0.6 inches and slightly less arm-side horizontal run of -0.4 inches. That alone should raise eyebrows. Pitchers typically see dramatic swings in run value when they change something, whether it's grip, velocity, usage, or movement. Vasquez changed almost nothing.

In fact, some of the peripheral numbers look worse. His whiff rate on the sinker is down from 11.2% to 4.2%, and his strikeout rate is down from 8.3% to 7.8%. His sinker "stuff+," a blend of velocity, movement, and deception, is also graded as the lowest of his young career at 91. The pitch is still getting hit hard when contact is made, as the average exit velocity off his sinker has risen from 87.4 mph to 89.3 mph. But, that contact is happening a lot less frequently, and when it does, it’s often straight into the ground. His ground ball rate on the pitch has ticked up, and hitters have been pounding it into the dirt more frequently.

One possible explanation for the turnaround of the pitch is better sequencing.

Even though Vasquez’s sinker hasn’t changed much in isolation, the way he’s using it and what he’s pairing it with has shifted. He’s throwing more four-seam fastballs early in counts, setting hitters up with elevated heat before dropping the sinker in late. That tunnel effect, where pitches look similar out of the hand but break in different directions, may be helping the sinker play up without needing more movement or velocity.

Here’s the thing: Vasquez’s sinker location is still middle-of-the-pack. He’s not painting edges or dotting corners. Sometimes, though, average location works if hitters don’t know what’s coming. Baseball is a game of inches. That Vasquez is throwing a very similar pitch to last year but getting drastically different results might say less about the pitch itself and more about the situations it appears in.

In 2024, Vasquez often leaned on the sinker in hitter’s counts, where it got punished. This year, he’s been more surgical, using it as a finisher or as a surprise offering in counts where hitters are expecting something else. His 22.2% putaway rate on the sinker is proof that he’s closing out at-bats with it more efficiently than ever.

It’s tempting to write this all off as noise, a statistical fluke caused by a small sample size or a lucky string of matchups. Maybe it is. Vasquez has only thrown the sinker 140 times this year. A few extra hits, or one bad outing, could swing the numbers in the other direction. However, it’s hard to argue with the results so far. A plus-nine run value is elite territory. Even if it’s not sustainable over the long haul, it’s enough to shift perceptions of the pitch.

Vasquez, still finding his footing in the league, has leaned on his sinker to get big outs in 2025. It’s become his safety net, even though, statistically, it shouldn’t be. That’s what makes the story of his sinker so compelling. Not all pitch success is cleanly measurable. Maybe Vasquez just believes in the pitch more. Maybe he’s found a rhythm in how and when to deploy it. Maybe it’s just baseball being weird.

But, right now, Randy Vasquez’s sinker is one of the most valuable pitches in baseball. And there doesn’t seem to be a clear reason why.

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