The Xander Bogaerts Signing Was Ill-Conceived From The Start, But He's Adjusting To Life In Petco

[Aidan Kurt]

When watching Xander Bogaerts today, it's easy to forget how good a hitter he actually was when he signed his 11-year, $280 million deal with the Padres in 2023. Bogaerts was coming off his second 6.0 WAR season, having earned his fourth All-Star appearance and fifth Silver Slugger.

He was among a mega-free agent shortstop class that included Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson. At 30 years old, Bogaerts was the oldest of the four, but the Padres still gave him an 11-year deal in hopes of getting exclusive rights to his prime offensive years.

However, it’s starting to look like his prime years may be behind him.

Since these shortstops all inked their deals in 2023, Bogaerts has recorded the lowest SLG+ among the group and the fewest extra base hits, fewer than Correa, who has over 200 fewer plate appearances. In 2024, Bogaerts led the Padres in payroll but ended the season with the eighth-highest wRC+ at 95. He’s off to a similar start in 2025 with a 94 wRC+.

Bogaerts’ offensive stumble is reminiscent of Troy Tulowitzki, another shortstop who dominated offensively early in his career. From 2006 to 2015, Tulowitski had the second-highest wRC+ among shortstops. The Rockies traded him away at the age of 30, and he never regained his offensive form, posting a 96 wRC+ over his next three seasons.

Between Bogaerts and Tulowitski, it’s hard to understand why a player of their caliber would trail off at the age of 30, considering many of the most productive offensive players in baseball are in their 30s. Even Bogaerts’ 32-year-old teammate, Manny Machado, is registering a 145 wRC+ in 2025.

However, perhaps the primary factor behind Bogaerts’ decline isn’t age. When Tulowitski was traded away from the Rockies, he was leaving the most favorable hitters' park in MLB. Bogaerts had a similar departure from Boston, leaving Fenway Park, the second most favorable hitters' park behind only the Rockies’ Coors Field.

Fenway Park has always been hitter-friendly thanks to its unusual dimensions. The “green monster” in left field, for example, sits just 310 feet from home plate but stands over 37 feet tall. These dimensions would turn would-be flyouts at other stadiums into singles and doubles.

For right-handed hitters like Bogaerts, the “green monster” is a certified stat-booster. Since 2015, no stadium has given up more hits to left field by right-handed hitters than Fenway Park. Over his last five seasons with the Red Sox, Bogaerts had just one season with a home wRC+ below 140.

Petco Park, on the other hand, was the fifth-worst stadium for right-handed hitters in 2024. Its left field foul pole sits 26 feet further back than Fenway Park, and when you compare Bogaerts’ hits at Fenway to Petco, it’s easy to see the effect of exchanging home fields on his offense to left field.

What were once hits to left field at Fenway have turned into outs at Petco. Bogaerts’ batting average on balls in play (BABIP) at home went from .370 in 2022 to .329 as a Padre in 2023. It fell even lower in 2024 with a .279 BABIP at Petco.

His 2023 numbers were a predictable step down from what he put up in Boston, but he still managed to be a productive offensive player, finishing the season with a 117 OPS+. He adjusted nicely to Petco Park, relying less on his pull side than he did in Boston. At home, he went to the opposite field for a team-leading 29.2% of the time and put up a 128 OPS+ at Petco.

But even with adjusted expectations in San Diego, Bogaerts put up some of the lowest numbers of his career in 2024. He put up his lowest batting average and WAR since 2014, excluding the shortened 2020 season. He particularly struggled at home, putting up a 93 wRC+ and slashing .246/.294/.369.

His opposite-field usage at home dropped to 17.4%, and he recorded just seven hits to right field at Petco. Again, it’s in this season that we see Bogaerts’ BABIP at home fall below .300 for the first time since his rookie year. 

There are still eight years left in Bogaerts’ contract, but he’s not getting any younger. At this stage in his career, Bogaerts is surely not going to put up his Boston numbers at Petco Park, but it’s evident by his 2023 season that he is still capable of being a productive offensive player in San Diego. Even last season, he put up a 115 wRC+ in the second half.

2025 feels like an indicator of what to expect from Bogaerts going forward. He’s looking better so far, putting up a 1.0 WAR at the end of May. He’s hitting balls harder and has stepped up his opposite-field usage to 20.9%.

At the end of April, his opposite field usage was 29.5% with a .312 BABIP. In May, however, these have fallen to 11.0% and .268, respectively. The correlation between his approach and productivity will certainly be something to monitor the rest of this season.

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