Jake Cronenworth's Walk Rate Is Propping Up His Numbers. Can It Last?

[Randy Holt]

There are 308 players in Major League Baseball with at least 100 plate appearances thus far in 2025. By OPS, Jake Cronenworth is the 54th-best player out of that group. And as much as it'd be nice to believe that the San Diego Padres' second baseman has regained form and reached an upper tier of the league's offensive talent, there's something deceptive happening within the numbers. 

Cronenworth's OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) currently sits at .816. For context, an OPS figure of over .800 is considered very good. Above average, even. It's a number, though, that is more propped up by the on-base side of things than the slugging. As of this writing, the former number sits at .384, while his slugging checks in at a mere .432. 

As far as the on-base figure goes, Cronenworth's OBP ranks 21st in the league among that same large group of players. That's primarily courtesy of his walk rate, which at 15.8 percent, sits eighth. It's important to note that both of those components of his game are admirable. You need those drivers of on-base presence to create opportunities for your top sluggers to drive in runs. The nature of these specific numbers, however, speaks to the one-dimensional nature of Cronenworth as a hitter in 2025. 

The issue is reflected in his percentile distribution thus far: 

The approach numbers are very real. Cronenworth has been able to work plate appearances effectively, both avoiding pitches outside the strike zone and limiting swings and misses. In turn, he has an absolutely elite walk rate. The larger concern lies in the blue areas of the top half. 

By measures of expectation, Cronenworth features an xBA of just .224 and an xSLG of only .335. Those expected outcomes are roughly 50 points and 70 points lower than what he has actually turned in to this point, respectively. Therein, we begin to find cause for concern regarding Jake Cronenworth's overall production, both in OPS and the overall output at large. 

While Cronenworth has been able to work each plate appearance to his advantage, he's been unable to parlay that into much success in terms of contact. His barrel rate, at 4.7 percent, is the second-lowest mark of his career. And while his 41.9 Hard-Hit% is okay, he's putting the ball on the ground almost 45 percent of the time. That would be his highest GB% since his rookie season in 2020. 

There is no obvious or immediate fix, either. His bat speed is up, which should play to his benefit considering the approach. His attack angle has dipped slightly against fastballs and breaking pitches, but not seemingly enough to generate as much groundball contact as he is at present. 

Ultimately, though, the concern is whether the walk rate can sustainably prop up the rest of his performance. Because when he's making contact, he's outperforming his peripherals. We know that in baseball, that's not always going to be reliable. Even a modest .296 BABIP is at risk of allowing one to maintain a steady on-base presence when the contact quality isn't there. 

Again, it stands to reason that Jake Cronenworth can remain a valuable part of this lineup on the merit of his approach alone. However, the contact quality will have to improve if he's to sustain such value.

View full article