What Would The Padres Selling At The Trade Deadline Look Like?

[Dan Rosaia]

After a red-hot start to the 2025 season, the San Diego Padres have slid back in the standings. With the National League West being the most competitive it has been in years, could this lead the team to punt on the season and sell at the upcoming trade deadline?

Through the first 26 games of the season, the Padres played to a record of 17-9. The team was playing so well that they spent the bulk of April in first place in the division, holding onto division leads as large as 1 1/2 games and first place until April 27. This had much of the baseball world surprised because many people believe the Los Angeles Dodgers to be far and away the best team in baseball.

Since that blazing hot start, the team has slowed down significantly. Since their 17-9 start, the team has a record of 27-27. Their lead in the division has evaporated, turning into a sizable deficit that has been as large as six games, and they are now tied for second place with the surprise San Francisco Giants, who recently acquired Rafael Devers in trade with the Boston Red Sox.

During the Padres’ slump, they have endured some sizable losing streaks, including a six-game streak on one occasion and a three-game streak on two occasions. They have also lost back-to-back games three different times. 

Over the last 20 games, the Padres are 9-11. They are also just .500 in games that go to extra innings since cooling down from the hot start, playing to a record of three wins and three losses in those games.

If the team continues to play like they have lately, it is not hard to imagine them falling to fourth in the division. As of June 26, the Padres have a three-game lead on the Arizona Diamondbacks for fourth place in the NL West. 

If the Padres underperform during the next few series, management might reevaluate the season's progress since losing first place in the division and decide to act as sellers at the trade deadline, effectively abandoning the season and focusing on retooling the team for the 2026 season.

The Padres could consider trading many of their players to other teams before the trade deadline. One idea that has been getting a lot of attention lately is trading relief pitcher Robert Suarez. Suarez has been relatively solid this season, posting a 3.48 ERA in 31 innings pitched over 32 games, earning 21 saves in the process. 

Suarez has a player option after this season, so it makes sense for the Padres to move off of him because he could walk in free agency, and the team would get nothing in return for him. He could command a decent return in a trade, although his ninth-inning collapse against the Diamondbacks on June 14 does not help his trade value.

Dylan Cease may also have a new team before the end of July. The Padres may want to get something in return for Cease through trade because he is on an expiring contract. Cease is having a down year, posting an ERA of 4.59, but he is only 29 years old and has been very solid over his career, so another team could look to add an arm like his to their rotation as a backend starter. The downside with a mid-season Cease trade is that the Padres, who are likely to field Cease a qualifying offer after the season, will need to recoup the lost draft pick in any potential trade.

The Padres may also look to get something in return for Luis Arraez before his contract expires after the season. Arraez, the utility infielder who can also play designated hitter, is one of the best contact hitters in all of baseball. Many teams can use a player like Arraez at the top of their lineup and may actively pursue a trade to land him.

A potential move that is getting less coverage is trading Jake Cronenworth. Cronenworth may be difficult to move due to his contract, as he is earning over $12 million per season for the next five seasons. However, moving him makes sense considering the contract they gave to Xander Bogaerts and the fact that they have Leo De Vries on the way, though likely not until the 2027 season.

Bogaerts is not exceptional on defense at the shortstop position, but he is earning $25 million per season through the 2033 season. The Padres' front office may decide to move Cronenworth, which would open up the possibility of moving Bogaerts to second base and signing some to bridge the gap until De Vries is ready.

Soft rebuilding in this way can be effective when considering the core of players the team has under long-term contracts right now. Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are all All-Star caliber players signed to huge contracts that the team does not want to see leave anytime soon. Machado is under contract until after the 2033 season, Merrill is signed until after the 2025 season, and Tatis Jr. is not a free agent until after the 2034 season.

If the Padres struggle over the next couple of weeks, the team may look very different in no time. However, if the team overperforms during that span, we may see a 'go for it' type move from the front office to help the team make a deep postseason run.

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