Jake Cronenworth's Trade Candidacy Reeks of Smokescreens

[Randy Holt]

On Tuesday, The Athletic's Dennis Lin published a column in which he explored how the San Diego Padres could approach the trade deadline with respect to future needs. The premise therein speaks to the idea that the organization could use the deadline not only to address immediate holes in the roster, but utilize some of their current major league talent in a trade with more of an eye on future projection. 

As such, it does lend itself to the idea that the Padres could move someone like, say, impending free agent Dylan Cease. Or Robert Suárez, who could test the free agent market via an opt-out after the 2025 season draws to a close. While a mid-season departure for either would represent some level of damage for the roster, there is some logic in the discussion given some of the team's payroll constraints and lack of impact talent in the upper levels of the minors. It's a difficult needle to thread, though, to be sure.

When Jake Cronenworth's name is invoked in said column, however, the clarity of such rationalization starts to become a little murkier. 

Now, Lin didn't say that the Padres were actively shopping any of the three players. In Cronenworth's case, it was more of a note that contenders were interested. And while the same justification for exploring a trade of Cease or Suárez could be applied to Cronenworth, his role and his contract would appear to shift the context into something much more difficult to justify. 

Cronenworth isn't an elite bat. He hasn't returned to his 2021 levels of power (.194 ISO), nor has he shown an ability to get back to his 2022 levels of defensive stability (three Outs Above Average). But this is a Padres lineup that is already top-heavy. The skill set offered by the team's keystone player is something that remains useful, especially down the lineup. 

Earlier in the year, we discussed Cronenworth's walk rate as being responsible for propping up his overall offensive production. Roughly a month-and-a-half later, that component still sits as his greatest asset. His 12.9 percent walk rate is not only the highest of his career, but the top rate on a team that has been middle-of-the-road in working their way on base via the free pass. It's an asset in itself. But since that writing, it's not his only one. 

The power has returned in a fairly notable way. No, Cronenworth isn't approaching a .200 ISO again. But, his .163 mark is his best since that 2021 campaign. He's parlayed that patience into his highest hard hit rate since 2020 (38.7 percent) while generating the most fly ball contact that he's seen since '22. It's been a process toward finally settling back into the type of player he was purported to be a few seasons ago. 

In terms of the defense, he's experienced a bounce back in moving back to second base on a (mostly) full-time basis. His Fielding Run Value sits at exactly average for the year. So, you're getting above average offensive production (119 wRC+) and average defense out of a secondary contributor to your lineup. In short, he's serving exactly the type of role you'd want him to be serving. And at an reasonable price. 

Cronenworth's average salary sits a shade above $11 million. He ranks ninth among second basemen in that regard and 41st among all infielders. At present, Cronenworth's 1.6 fWAR ranks 10th among second basemen with at least 250 plate appearances. Another way to read this is the Padres are essentially getting exactly what they're paying for. And, while he'll see a $1 million bump in each of the next three seasons, it remains an entirely reasonable contract. 

Plus, none of this discussion mentions that the Padres don't have infielders coming up through the pipeline. Leo De Vries is the team's top prospect but is unlikely to move off shortstop (leaving him more as a part of a separate Xander Bogaerts discussion). MLB Pipeline's other top Padres prospects include Cobb Hightower, Deivid Coronil, and Jhoan De La Cruz. Hightower is the oldest of the group, at 20 years old, and none are projected to arrive at the top level before 2028.

The team simply does not have the organizational infrastructure at present to give a youngster an opportunity in Cronenworth's stead. That stands in contrast to Cease & Suárez, where the team has proven capable of providing sufficient depth (more so in Suárez's case, where one of the other elite late-inning guys could step into his big shoes). 

Again, we don't have anything to suggest that the Padres are actively exploring moving Jake Cronenworth. But, with the idea that the Padres want to keep an eye on the horizon and contenders being interested in his services, it isn't an impossible scenario. The context is just so vastly different from his veteran counterparts on the mound, making it a really tough sell were A.J. Preller to act on such a move.

View full article