The Padres Have Gained Significant Ground On The Dodgers, Can They Catch Them Over The Final 50?

[Dan Rosaia]

Three days into July, the San Diego Padres sat with a record of 46-40. At that time, being six games over .500 was good enough to net them second place in the National League West. At the same time, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who led the division, had played to a record of 56-32. 

The Dodgers, playing great for the first three months of the season, and the Padres, playing good but not great over the same period, gave the Dodgers a nine-game lead in the division on July 3. It was beginning to look like the Dodgers were running away with the West.

The tables have since turned, and the Dodgers no longer look like a lock to claim the 2025 National League West crown.

Since taking the nine-game lead in the division after beating the Chicago White Sox on July 3, the Dodgers have played to a record of just 11-17 over 28 games. The Padres have played 30 games, winning 18 of them and losing only 12 over the same period. As a result, the Padres have gained significant ground in the division, and the Dodgers have seen their once commanding division lead nose dive from nine games on July 3 to just three games on August 9. The Dodgers won just 39 percent of their games over the stretch, while the Padres simultaneously won 60 percent of their games. The stretch from both teams has reopened the door for the Padres to make a run at the division.

With roughly a month and a half left on the season, both the Padres and the Dodgers have 46 games left. The Padres have 12 teams left to play, and the Dodgers have a series against 11 teams remaining. The Padres still have games against the Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, and Arizona Diamondbacks. 

The Dodgers' remaining schedule consists of games against the Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, and Seattle Mariners. 

Neither team has the advantage of an easier schedule, as the remaining opponents for both teams have an average winning percentage of 49 percent. While neither team has a schedule that is necessarily easier than the other, the Dodgers have an advantage in that they only play one team with a higher winning percentage. In comparison, the Padres have a lower winning percentage than three of their remaining opponents. The Dodgers have a lower winning percentage than the Blue Jays, and the Padres have a lower winning percentage than the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Brewers.

Because both the Padres and Dodgers have schedules of roughly the same difficulty, the matchups between the two teams will be critical for both teams. The two teams play each other six more times this season, with all six games coming within ten days, later this month.

The two have faced off seven times so far in 2025, and the Dodgers have dominated the matchup so far. They have beaten the Padres in five of the seven games they have played.

Although the matchup looks fairly lopsided from the results, the games the two teams have played have been relatively close. The Dodgers never beat the Padres by more than three runs, and the Padres have actually outscored them by two runs.

Putting aside the six games remaining between the Padres and Dodgers, if each team played well enough to maintain their current winning percentage, the Dodgers would end up with 90 wins and the Padres would finish with 86 wins.

Adding in those six remaining matchups, the Padres would have to take five of the six games from the Dodgers to take the division crown. The Padres would have to win five of the six games because the tiebreaker game 163 went away after the 2021 season, and they have already dug themselves into a sizable hole, being down two games to five in the head-to-head matchup with the Dodgers. If this hypothetical situation were to happen, the Padres would finish tied with the Dodgers at 91 wins each, but the Padres would win the division due to winning the season series seven games to six.

The Padres have a lot of work to do for them to make up the remaining ground in the division and dethrone the Dodgers as reigning, defending, back-to-back-to-back NL West champions. While the track record for this year’s Padres has not been ideal when going against this year’s Dodgers so far, the two teams have not met since the Padres made some pretty significant moves at the trade deadline, so it is impossible to say what their past matchups are relevant today.

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