Now That The Padres Have Caught The Dodgers, The Season Could Be Decided Over The Next 11 Days

[Samuel Cozart]

The month of August has October-level stakes for the Padres, as four consecutive series against Los Angeles and San Francisco will likely determine the outcome of the NL West.

Just a month ago, it seemed like the Dodgers were on a cakewalk to the division title. On July 3, they stood nine games ahead of the Padres and Giants for the division’s top spot. Since that date, the Padres have surged with a 22-12 record, compared to 12-20 records for LA and San Francisco, respectively. 

Now, tied with Los Angeles for the division lead and nine games ahead of San Francisco, a chance at the NL West crown has become very real for the Padres. As luck will have it, San Diego’s next four series go as this: @SFG, @LAD, vs. SFG, vs. LAD. 

As it stands, the odds are still heavily in favor of the Dodgers winning the division for a fourth-straight season. FanGraphs' playoff odds model gives them a 70.6% chance at the division title, with the Padres at 29.3% and the Giants at 0.0% (as of the morning of August 13). 

With the odds against them, the Padres will need to show up and show up big in their upcoming series to put themselves in the division’s driver’s seat. 

First off, let’s take a look at the battle at the top between the Padres and Dodgers. The clubs are slated to face each other six more times this season, all of those coming in the upcoming weeks. Each game in these series could very well make or break the Padres’ 2025 campaign. 

In their head-to-head matchups this season, the Padres are just 2-5 against Los Angeles, so they are playing from behind. To earn back the tiebreaker, San Diego will have to dominate the Dodgers the rest of the way. To get this done, the Friars need to win at least five of the six remaining games against their Southern California foes. 

Even if the Padres are tied with the Dodgers after these series, the odds will be against them. In that case, they’d have to be one game better than the Dodgers in their remaining schedule, excluding head-to-head games. 

According to Tankathon, San Diego has the second-easiest remaining schedule in the league. So, how hard could it be to gain ground on LA? Well, the Dodgers have the easiest remaining schedule. 

With virtually the same strength of schedule, it can be assumed that the gap between the Padres and Dodgers will remain around the same. That makes the matchups between them all the more important. To optimize its chances of winning the division title, San Diego will need to win at least five of the remaining head-to-head games. 

Luckily, this portion of the schedule is coming at the right time for the Padres. As their earlier-mentioned records since July 3 indicate, San Diego is finding its groove as soon as Los Angeles is losing it. The Padres are being given an optimal chance to put destiny in their own hands and take over the division lead. 

However, this isn’t a two-team battle. At least not yet. 

The Giants are still lurking at the back of the race, trying to claw their way back into it. By taking care of business this month, the Padres can take them off of life support. 

Despite the Giants’ sizzling hot start to the season, the Padres have still managed a 5-2 record in their head-to-head matchups. 

With a much less daunting matchup than the LA series, San Diego can utilize its upcoming series against San Francisco to both knock them out of the race and gain ground in the division. The Giants are not just trying to ride the Padres’ coattails in the divisional race, but also in the Wild Card race. FanGraphs gives them just a 5.7% chance to clinch a Wild Card spot, so a couple of series wins for the Padres against them would dwindle those chances even closer to zero.

Each time San Diego beats San Francisco, the Giants’ odds get even grimmer. Before Monday’s victory over the Giants, San Francisco had a 7.7% chance of a postseason clinch. Those odds dropped 2% after the game, showing the sheer weight each loss holds.

A strong showing in August’s two series against the Giants can help push the Padres’ other California division rival to near-zero playoff odds. Not only would this help San Diego get one more team out of their vicinity, but it would also help them creep closer to the top of the NL West.

If the trends continue, the Padres have a golden opportunity to take advantage of their Golden State rivals this month. An opportunity to enhance playoff position to this degree before September even begins is rare, so they have to be prepared to play October-level baseball in these series. 

If the Padres can do that, the NL could very well be theirs.

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[Transplanted twins fan]

It’s good to see the padres catching the dodgers. It would be poetic justice for many mid market teams. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

20 minutes ago, Transplanted twins fan said:

It’s good to see the padres catching the dodgers. It would be poetic justice for many mid market teams. 

It's kind of unbelievable that the Dodgers are free falling the way they are. I fully expected them to walk away with the division.

[Transplanted twins fan]

Mostly injuries or bad play?

[Padrefan since 84]

For us to overtake the Dodgers, our big dogs are going to have to step up.  Manny going 0 for 4 in game 1 and swinging at the first pitch in the 8th isn't good.  We needed game 1 with Snell on the bump for the Dodgers in game 2.  Let's go Padres!

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 hours ago, Padrefan since 84 said:

For us to overtake the Dodgers, our big dogs are going to have to step up.  Manny going 0 for 4 in game 1 and swinging at the first pitch in the 8th isn't good.  We needed game 1 with Snell on the bump for the Dodgers in game 2.  Let's go Padres!

Game one was important, but King going down and effectively running a bullpen game is a big ask. Kershaw has pitched pretty well this season.

And welcome to the site!

[Padrefan since 84]

Thanks.  Glad to be here!