How Does JP Sears Fit With San Diego Padres, Now and Later?

[Randy Holt]

When the San Diego Padres acquired Mason Miller in a blockbuster deal at the trade deadline, he didn't come alone. As part of the massive package it required to bring in one of the most electric arms in the league, A.J. Preller was able to add some depth, for both now and the next handful of seasons, to the starting group in the form of JP Sears. 

Not that it's been a particular memorable start to his Padres tenure, though. 

Sears has made just one start with San Diego thus far, something of a dud of an outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks back on August 4. There, the lefty threw five innings of five-run ball, allowing 10 hits and a walk along the way. He was somewhat unceremoniously optioned to El Paso following that start, leaving the Padres with just four clear-cut starts to speak of on the active roster. 

In the days since, Nestor Cortes has returned to action to put the Padres back at five. Given some of what he's flashed, going back to 2022 when he was a member of the New York Yankees, it's logical to make the upside play at the back end of the rotation. With that, behind the rest of the group that also includes a now-healthy Michael King, Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, and Nick Pivetta, Sears' role in all of this has become quite murky in a present context. As long as the health stands up for each of the team's individual starters, there isn't room for Sears to ply his trade against that list of arms.

Sears was acquired by the Athletics back in '22 as part of the deal that sent Frankie Montas & Lou Trivino to the Bronx. He was the No. 22 ranked prospect in the Yankees' organization at the time, with MLB Pipeline having the following to say about his skill set: 

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"Though Sears' fastball sits at just 90-93 mph and maxes out at 95, hitters don't get good swing against it. He's just 5-foot-11 and his low arm slot makes it seem like he's throwing uphill, producing a flat approach angle and lots of riding action up in the zone. His slider also lacks power, parking at 78-81 mph, but it too misses bats because it has plenty of sweep as well as two-plane depth when he stays on top of it. He'll use a decent changeup with fade to give batters a different look, but it's often too firm."

The writeup also noted that Sears doesn't have much margin for error given the somewhat limited ceiling in the stuff game, relying much more on location than overpowering opposing hitters. That certainly tracks given that, prior to his demotion to El Paso, he was sitting in only the 37th percentile in K% (20.3 percent) but 83rd in walk rate (6.0 percent). Sears has been able to drop his Barrel% against by one percent in each of the last three years, which speaks to the type of presence he offers when considered in conjunction with his ability to limit free passes.

Lucky for Sears, he won't have to wait too much longer to gain some clarity over his role with the Padres. Even if it doesn't come until 2026, he'll be an important piece moving forward.

From a pure personnel standpoint, Sears will represent an important component to the '26 pitching staff. Darvish, Pivetta, and Joe Musgrove are the only starters under a guaranteed contract for next season. Cease and Cortes are free agents while King will almost certainly decline his end of a mutual option and reach free agency. Even if the team does re-sign one of them (and King is the one they're rumored to want to lock in longer term), you're still looking at a vacant fifth spot in the rotation. 

Outside of Sears, Randy Vásquez and Matt Waldron represent the only starters currently on the 40-man roster, with Preller's frenzy of prospect movement at the deadline pushing back the timeline for any reinforcements coming in from the system. Assuming Musgrove is ready—and there's reportedly an outside shot he somehow returns this season—you're looking at three locks in the rotation. If the team should sign King or another starter with more upside, that leaves just one spot for Sears, Vásquez, or Waldron. 

Of course, all three will probably factor in on some level. Depth in the pitching staff is almost always utilized during a 162-game season, and each of Vásquez and Waldron have two more years of team control. Sears has three of his own to his name. Given Vásquez's command woes and Waldron's penchant for getting touched up in terms of contact quality, one would imagine that Sears would have the inside track at the No. 5 starter gig ahead of 2026 spring training. 

His skill set certainly profiles well for this group. The Padres rank in the top half of the league in starting pitching ERA (3.99) while offering the league's fourth-highest fly ball rate (43.5 percent). Combine that with just okay strikeout numbers (22.1 percent), and it feels somewhat logical that the team would deem a command-oriented, fly ball-prone starter as a strong fit in the back of the rotation.

And that really is JP Sears' future with this organization. Part of the reason they acquired him was because of some of the uncertainty in the rotation beyond 2025. More of it was the team control component, with the skill set also serving as something with which this coaching staff has familiarity. So, while we might not see Sears too much down the stretch here for August and September of this season, it seems likely that he's going to get a whole lot of work at the top level from the jump in '26.

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