Ryan O’Hearn’s Bat May Be Struggling, But His Glove Has Given The Padres' Defense A Boost

[Bryan Jaeger]

Luis Arraez has primarily been a second baseman over his seven-year career, although he has made starts at first base over the last four seasons. This season, Arraez has been the primary first baseman, with 97 starts at the position. He has accumulated 642 putouts, 56 assists, and one throwing error, posting a .999 fielding percentage.

This is an impressive performance; however, one stat says otherwise. His outs above average (OAA) statistic is a drastic difference from his successful fielding stats. OAA indicates the number of outs a player has saved. According to MLB.com, four factors go into determining the OAA:

• How far the fielder has to go to reach the ball ("the intercept point").
• How much time he has to get there.
• How far is he then from the base the runner is heading to?
• On force plays, how fast the batter is, on average. (A runner's average Sprint Speed is used in the calculation, rather than his Sprint Speed on that particular play. For new players with no data, a league-average -- 27 ft/sec -- score is used; once the player qualifies for the leaderboard, all of his previous plays are re-run.)

Using these factors, Baseball Savant has posted that Arraez has a -6 on the season, which is tied with Rowdy Tellez for the second-worst among 36 eligible first basemen. He is rated -5 for preventing runs; his biggest weakness is stopping balls down the first-base line, where he has had 104 attempts with a 69 percent success rate, compared to an expected 73 percent. These failed attempts would have likely resulted in an extra-base hit. This weakness is followed up by balls toward the hole between first and second. After 46 attempts, the 28-year-old has achieved a 74 percent success rate, compared to an expected 77 percent.

It's surprising to see a middle infielder struggling with fielding balls to either side, but it shows that Arraez struggles with his reaction time off the bat from left-handed batters pulling the ball. He has a -4 rating against lefties than a -2 from righties, but his height can also be an issue with his reach. The average height of first basemen this season is 6 feet 0.82 inches, and Arraez is only 5'10".

Ryan O'Hearn's arrival via the trade with the Baltimore Orioles brought a potent bat to the Padres' lineup, although it's been a slow start; however, he brought along his glove, which is far more impressive according to OAA. Although O'Hearn has played first base for eight seasons as a utility guy, he has just 120 more games at the position than Arraez.

O'Hearn also has a height advantage, standing at 6'2". He ranks 3rd in OAA with a seven rating and five runs prevented. Where Arraez struggled is where O'Hearn is succeeding. The 32-year-old has an 88 percent success rate compared to an expected 81 percent on balls down the line on 86 attempts. He has also been successful on 11 attempts, achieving a 55 percent success rate in the hole, which is higher than the expected 53 percent.

Although O'Hearn's bat has struggled in San Diego, slashing .200/.326/.429, he's found a way to impact the Padres. The Padres trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by two games in the NL West title race, after the August 8th narrow 4-3 loss to the Giants. To catch the Dodgers, the Padres will need their new run-preventing first baseman.

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