Bryan Jaeger

After a tough NLDS loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2024, the San Diego Padres entered the offseason with high hopes—only to stumble and fall to the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card round this past season. Now, as the Winter Meetings begin, big names are signing, but the Padres, facing tight finances, must tread carefully. Their projected 2026 payroll is $201 million, down $10 million from last season. They still have $43 million before they reach the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, but with the ownership group contemplating selling the team, that amount may not be in their budget. The team will need to be strategic with how they approach free agency this offseason and can't just pursue the "beauty of the ball". With that in mind, here are three players that the Padres DO NOT need to sign. Luis Arráez, 1B/2B Arráez wasn't much of a producer offensively last season, posting career lows with a .719 OPS and .289 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). For the first time in his seven MLB seasons, his BABIP fell below .300. He did avoid strikeouts, fanning only 21 times last season, but his refusal to draw walks—just 34 in 675 plate appearances—limits his value. He is a contact hitter who recorded a mere 1.1 percent barrel rate in 2025, another personal low. Defensively, Arráez was the Padres' primary first baseman last season, logging 993 2/3 innings at the position, with only 82 innings at second base. The Padres do not need him at either spot. Jake Cronenworth firmly handles second base when healthy. Arráez posted a positive fWAR (0.9) last season, but his -16.6 defensive rating from FanGraphs is a clear liability. He is a below-average defender at a position most notably held by power hitters. The Padres could use an upgrade over Gavin Sheets at first base, but Arráez is not that solution. Cody Bellinger, OF Bellinger's name is everywhere this offseason, aside from Kyle Tucker. Every contender seems linked to him. He managed a strong rebound at the plate after missing 32 games in both 2023 and 2024. He played 152 games this year, the most since 2019. Although he's hit 23 or more home runs each of the past four seasons, his BABIP has topped .300 only once since 2019, when he hit 47 home runs. Bellinger, like Arráez, does not walk enough. He struck out a career-low 13.7 percent of the time but walked only 57 times in 656 plate appearances (8.7 percent). Given his contact approach, his BABIP should be better for an everyday starter. Defensively, Bellinger is solid in the outfield with a +8 and +7 DRS (defensive runs saved) in the corner outfield positions, but was a liability in center field with a -3 rating. He won't take innings from Fernando Tatis Jr., who just won his second Gold Glove Award in right field, but Bellinger would be a slight improvement over Ramón Laureano (+2 DRS) in left field. However, Bellinger's inconsistency at the plate doesn't warrant the massive contract he will receive. J.T. Realmuto, C Freddy Fermin is currently the starting catcher, but he lacks experience as a primary catcher despite four years in the league. Defensively, he excels, ranking second among eligible MLB catchers with a +13 DRS over 803 1/3 innings, though he offers little offensive upside. He had a 1.0 fWAR last season but had a -11 offensive rating. An upgrade is likely needed, but Realmuto doesn't need to be that guy. The former Phillie turns 35 before the season begins and has caught in at least 110 games in nine of his 12 MLB seasons. That workload will wear on catchers quicker than other positions. Offensively, he doesn't provide enough upside to warrant the $10-15 million annual contract. However, Realmuto's BABIP has exceeded .300 in all but one of his 12 MLB seasons. Striking out is an issue, doing so 23.5 percent of the time last season, and he only hit 12 home runs and 52 RBIs in 550 plate appearances. The catcher doesn't produce enough offensive production to warrant the Padres paying for him, since Fermin outperforms him defensively. There are cheaper options available, or give Luis Campusano a sixth try to live up to the hype he produced as a prospect. I'm anticipating a relatively quiet Winter Meetings for the Padres, given their financial limitations; however, this is when crazy acquisitions happen, so who knows what will happen. View full article

Happy Thanksgiving from us at Padres Mission. It's a time to sit back and think of everything you can be thankful for. I'm grateful for my first year here, covering the San Diego Padres. It's been a fantastic, fun first season, and I look forward to the future, which hopefully includes a World Series run. For the Padres faithful, there are many things to be thankful for regarding the team, but here are five things that should be at the top of your list. The Padres add experience behind the former reliever, now manager, Craig Stammen. Stammen had a solid 13-year career as a reliever, posting a 3.66 ERA over 885 innings. He's only been retired for three years, but he served as a special assistant to the Padres, helping with player development in that span. Even though he's still been around the game, he needs experience on his coaching staff. The inexperience was addressed by hiring Randy Knorr. Knorr has been a bench coach, first base coach, bullpen coach, catching coordinator, minor league coach, and has recently been an advisor in player development. When a team has a rookie manager, it's reassuring to fans that there is experience somewhere within the coaching staff. This team, on paper, looks solid next season, so Stammen is stepping into a comfortable situation. A.J. Preller's dedication to building a competitive team. Preller has been determined to put together a competitive team. That included this past season, acquiring notable players, including Mason Miller and JP Sears from the Athletics, and Ryan O'Hearn and Ramón Laureano from the Baltimore Orioles, to help bolster an already impressive roster. Preller has been known to do whatever it takes to put together the best team, including trading for Fernando Tatis Jr. from the Chicago White Sox in 2016 and Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals in 2022. Preller's contract expires after the 2026 season, but discussions are ongoing, so Padres fans can feel confident the Padres will remain competitive for the foreseeable future. The former ownership group, specifically Peter Seidler. With the uncertainty of the ownership group, let's be thankful for the years we had with former owner Peter Seidler, who tragically passed away in November 2023. He was an owner who supported backing Preller's big moves, including the massive contracts to land superstars in free agency, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts top this list, and the blockbuster trades stated earlier. During Seidler's tenure, the Padres made the postseason during the 2020-shortened season, ending a 14-year drought. After that season, he became the controlling owner. He not only had a passion for baseball, but he also poured his love into the community. He formed the "Tuesday Group", which addressed homelessness in San Diego and helped raise money for the Padres' "Pedal the Cause" for local cancer research. The Padres remain owned by the Seidler family, with Peter's brother, John, named chairman before this past season. The family is currently exploring options, including a potential sale. With the Padres coming off their first consecutive 90-plus-win seasons in franchise history, the team is performing at its best and appears appealing to potential buyers. Despite this news, the ownership group is committed to getting the resources to bring a World Series home. You, the Padres fanbase. The Padres fanbase has been electric, especially over the last decade. After breaking the 14-year postseason drought in 2020, the Padres have now made the postseason in four of the previous six seasons, including a 2022 NLCS trip. This past season, 3,437,201 fans attended 81 games at Petco Park, with 72 games selling out. With the Seidlers showing the willingness to do what's needed to win, the fans are rewarding the loyalty. Gone are the days of finishing fifth in the NL West. However, as promising as the season looks, by the end, the fans are left heartbroken and looking to the next season. The Padres again look prepared to contend in 2026, and the fans will be there for all the ups and downs. The 2026 Padres look promising (again). Ryan O'Hearn, Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Robert Suarez are notable names to leave for free agency. The number one bullpen in ERA (3.06) last season is left intact, except for Suarez, whose 2.97 ERA was a key to the bullpen's success, although we replace him with a full season of Mason Miller closing games. The starting rotation returns Nick Pivetta, coming off his best season over his nine-year career. He posted a 2.87 ERA, 9.41 strikeouts per nine innings, and 3.49 FIP over 181 2/3 innings. Joe Musgrove will return after missing all of the 2025 season with a UCL injury that required Tommy John surgery. With the loss of Cease, King, and Yu Darvish, who will miss the entire 2026 season due to a UCL injury, a back-end starting pitcher is a significant need this offseason. JP Sears and Kyle Hart are projected to be the number four and five starters. Giving Sears a shot makes sense, as he's only pitched in four MLB seasons and has shown flashes of brilliance; however, regarding Hart, an upgrade is needed. He just turned 33, but hasn't had an ERA under 4.00 since 2019, except his 2024 season in the Korean Baseball Organization. The offense returns all the starters from last season, besides O'Hearn and Arraez. We got to see a blip of the number seven prospect, Tirso Ornelas, last season in 16 plate appearances. He struggled, slashing .071/.188/.071, but he showed great vision at the plate, walking and striking out both at 12 percent. The offense as a whole finished in the bottom half of all primary stats last season, so a bat or two are high on the needs list this offseason, but they can be bench bats that can platoon at positions or a first baseman. View full article

The San Diego Padres finished 90-72 last season, three games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. Their postseason run ended in a Game 3 Wild Card loss to the Chicago Cubs. Manager Mike Shildt left the dugout as a result, and newbie Craig Stammen has taken his place. All told, this is a roster capable of competing for a World Series title, but the margin for error is thin. With financial constraints, the Padres will find it hard to add free agents, making in-house depth essential for 2026. Let's examine their depth options at each position, starting with the middle infield. Second base Starter: Jake Cronenworth (31 years old, .246/.367/.377, 61 runs, 11 home runs, 59 RBIs, .744 OPS. 117 wRC+) Cronenworth will return for the 2026 season as the everyday starter at second base. He played in 135 games despite missing a month due to a fractured right rib after being hit by a pitch. The second baseman doesn't offer a great deal of power, but when he's played at least 155 games in a season, he has hit a minimum of 17 home runs. He's a reliable bat for the bottom-third of the lineup. Cronenworth will have no competition for starts unless he misses time due to injury; however, he's played at least 127 games in each of the last five seasons. Depth: Will Wagner (27 years old, .225/.324/.279, 15 runs, 7 RBIs, .603 OPS, 78 wRC+) Wagner appeared in 55 games in his second MLB season, joining the Padres from the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline in exchange for Brandon Valenzuela. While he struggles offensively, he provides solid infield defense across multiple positions. Wagner, 27, won't compete with Cronenworth for innings but will fill in on days off or in case of injury. He is currently the only backup second baseman on the roster. With a weak farm system, additional depth would require a trade or free-agent signing. Shortstop Starter: Xander Bogaerts (33 years old, .263/.328/.391, 63 runs, 11 home runs, 53 RBIs, .720 OPS, 104 wRC+) Bogaerts exemplifies durability, having played at least 135 games in 10 of 12 seasons (excluding the shortened 2020 season). A four-time All-Star and five-time Silver Slugger (all with the Boston Red Sox), the 33-year-old no longer delivers elite offensive numbers, though he'll run an above-average wRC+. The lineup does not require much from him if everyone else is clicking, but a return to form from the shortstop would go a long way to fixing what ails the offense. Despite limited production, Bogaerts posted 3.2 fWAR last season. He has only 22 home runs over the last two seasons despite 463-plus plate appearances each year. Due to his lengthy contract signed after his fifth Silver Slugger in 2022 (11 years, $280 million), he remains the team's shortstop for the foreseeable future, health permitting. Depth: Mason McCoy (30 years old, .136/.269/.182, five runs, 1 RBI, .451 OPS, 42 wRC+) McCoy has played only 43 games in his brief three-season career. He hit 21 home runs in 2023 for Triple-A Tacoma, an affiliate of the Seattle Mariners. However, he has not matched that production since, hitting just five and 11 home runs in the last two seasons in Triple-A and failing to homer at the MLB level. Like Wagner, McCoy serves as the only backup at his position, at least for right now. The farm system remains depleted at every position, and shortstop offers no exception. So, if Bogaerts gets injured, the Padres will turn to McCoy unless Wagner shifts to the other side of second base. View full article

Expectations were high for the San Diego Padres after a 93-win season and NLDS appearance in 2024. Fans and the organization anticipated a deep 2025 postseason, but the team's season ended early with a Wild Card loss to the Chicago Cubs. That disappointing finish creates urgency to upgrade the roster, but financial restraints make it difficult. FanGraphs projects that the Padres will begin the 2026 season with a payroll of $201 million, which is within $43 million of the 2026 CBT threshold of $244 million. While they could exceed the CBT threshold and incur penalties, it is worth noting that the Padres had a budget of $211 million last season, despite the 2025 threshold being $241 million. Their prior spending patterns might suggest less room to work with than previously believed. The team's reluctance to spend last season may stem from the fact that it was the first offseason without former owner Peter Seidler, who passed away in November 2023. Known for aggressive spending to build a competitive team, Seidler's absence makes leaving $30 million unspent before reaching the CBT threshold notable. With the Seidler family seeking to sell, ownership uncertainty could affect future player investments. However, despite the possibility of new ownership, that scenario will not alter this offseason's plans. In free agency, the Padres' urgent need is in the starting rotation. Dylan Cease and Michael King are free agents, and Yu Darvish received devastating news that he will miss the entire 2026 season due to needing reconstructive elbow surgery. Offensively, the Padres finished 28th in home runs (152) during the regular season. With Ryan O'Hearn and Luis Arráez also hitting free agency, they are leaving offensive and defensive voids, making the process of targeting a cheap power bat even more crucial. Further complicating the flexibility, the team has $70 million allocated between Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. for the upcoming season. Still, the amount increases to $85 million, $90 million, and $100 million through the 2027-2029 seasons, and remains at $100 million in 2030. These escalating contracts make finding relief challenging, as moving one of these would bring significant salary relief; however, all three have full no-trade clauses. Jake Cronenworth could be a trade piece, but he has five years ($12.28 million annually) left on his seven-year, $80 million deal and holds a partial no-trade clause. Still, the bullpen offers flexibility, returning as a strength after leading the league in ERA last season (3.06). As the Padres finalize their finances and roster, the budget available to president of baseball operations A.J. Preller remains uncertain, although several needs persist. The team should prioritize signing a reliable, middle-tier starting pitcher (if an ace is too expensive). Re-signing Michael King on a short-term contract could be a strong option, as it appeals to both sides, given his recent injury history and the need to prove his value. Target a power hitter who can play first base or designated hitter, ideally a right-hand bat, to potentially platoon with Gavin Sheets or Tirso Ornelas. This addition would strengthen the lineup's offensive output, addressing the team's low home run totals. Seek additional affordable bench bats that provide offensive depth and flexibility for matchups across the lineup. The Padres have the worst farm system in MLB, which has been depleted over multiple seasons of trading prospects for stars. Given these limitations, the free agency market is the best approach to building a competitive team. While the Padres aren't far from reaching a World Series, how Preller approaches this offseason will be crucial to their chances. View full article

The San Diego Padres lacked power production this past season. They ranked 18th in the league in RBIs (663) and 28th in home runs (152). Only six players hit more than 10 home runs: Manny Machado (27), Fernando Tatis Jr. (25), Gavin Sheets (19), Jackson Merrill (16), Jake Cronenworth (11), and Xander Bogaerts (11). These numbers fall well short compared to their NL West counterparts who won the World Series; the Los Angeles Dodgers finished second in home runs (244). To compete for a World Series title next year, the Padres must add power to their lineup. The Padres face a budget limitation of $52 million in Competitive Balance Tax Space, so they must remain selective, as they have several needs to address. They could pursue a cheap power bat who would give them the needed boost and allow them to pursue other top-tier talent. Likewise, the Padres benefit from not requiring a starter; they can target a bench bat who could serve as a platoon or DH option for rookie manager Craig Stammen. Let's analyze three players who fit this archetype and what they could bring to San Diego next season. *All contract predictions are based on NBC Sports' Free Agent Rankings Rhys Hoskins Hoskins has reliably produced over his eight-year MLB career, excluding the 2023 season that he missed due to a torn ACL. He owns a career .820 OPS and 121 wRC+, but striking out remains an issue. Last season, he posted a 27 percent strikeout rate, slightly higher than his 25 percent career average. Staying healthy has recently become another problem, as he has played more than 110 games in only four seasons. However, in each of those four seasons, he hit more than 25 home runs. When healthy, he consistently demonstrates power at the plate. As a right-handed bat, Hoskins could platoon at first base with Sheets, since Ryan O'Hearn became a free agent. Sheets struggles against left-handed pitchers over his career, and though he improved his OPS against lefties to .669 in 2025, significantly above his career average of .557, he's still a below-average contributor in those situations. With an estimated one-year price tag of $5 million, Hoskins looks like an ideal addition for the Padres. Mike Yastrzemski Yastrzemski spent seven seasons with the San Francisco Giants before being traded to the Kansas City Royals this past trade deadline. His price tag is estimated to be a one-year deal worth around $11 million. This past season, Yastrzemski hit 17 home runs and drove in 68 runs over 558 plate appearances. He had trouble striking out over his career, with a strikeout rate of at least 24 percent in each of his first six seasons, but in 2025, he reduced that to 19 percent. The 35-year-old offers a left-handed bat off the bench who can occasionally play in the outfield. Yastrzemski could platoon with Ramón Laureano, who had a breakthrough offensive campaign in 2025. He had an .812 OPS and a 127 wRC+ after being acquired at the trade deadline with the Baltimore Orioles. However, he's had up-and-down results against right-handed pitchers; overall, in his career, he has a .747 OPS in 1,979 plate appearances against righties. Yastrzemski, meanwhile, posted an .809 OPS and 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. As someone who can reliably fill in at all three outfield positions, he'd make a lot of sense as a fourth outfielder. Max Kepler Kepler stands out as another experienced outfielder who can platoon in left field with Laureano next season. In Kepler's 11-year career, he has produced roughly average overall results, but in seven different seasons, he has recorded more than 17 home runs. He hit 18 home runs last season and collected 90 hits in 474 plate appearances. That lack of overall production leads to an estimated $6 million price tag for a one-year deal. Kepler has alternated between single-digit and 17 or more home runs over his last six seasons—that trend is not ideal for a team that needs power production, but with the Padres facing budget restraints, Kepler's $6 million price tag appears enticing. It would allow them to spend on a higher-tier starting pitcher, especially with the latest news that Yu Darvish will miss the entire 2026 season. View full article

The Padres have a few needs to address this offseason, but a front-end starter is the top priority. Budget limitations leave around $52 million in Competitive Balance Tax Space (25th among MLB teams), so they must be selective in their free-agent signings. This offseason, the Padres lost Dylan Cease and Michael King (who opted out) to free agency. The current starting rotation consists of Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish (who will miss the 2026 season), Randy Vásquez, and JP Sears. Musgrove missed all of 2025 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, which he needed after an injury in the 2024 postseason. Darvish and Sears, meanwhile, struggled with ERAs above 5.00. The depth behind these pitchers is thin. Their inexperience and struggles make adding a reliable starter critical, especially given the team's financial constraints and Darvish's pending absence. So, where can the Friars turn to ensure their rotation stays attached through a 162-game grind in 2026? Re-signing Michael King or Dylan Cease Re-signing both pitchers is unlikely, but bringing back either is sensible. King, with ERAs of 2.95 and 3.44 over the past two seasons, has twice exceeded 100 innings in his seven-year career. There are durability concerns after injuries chopped him down in 2025 (and the fact that he was a reliever before joining the Padres). Still, when healthy, he's a frontline starter. Cease, despite a 4.55 ERA in 2025, has been consistent the last five seasons, logging at least 165 innings and 214 strikeouts each year. Both pitchers will be 30 years old in 2026 and are projected to cost around $24-30 million annually. Zac Gallen Gallen finished this past season far from his stellar 2022 and 2023 form, when he finished in the top five for the Cy Young Award. In 2025, he posted a 4.83 ERA and a 175:66 strikeout-to-walk ratio, allowing over 100 earned runs for the first time in his nine-year career, all with the Arizona Diamondbacks. At 30, his value is lower than Cease's or King's (likely in the $18-22 million per year range). Despite a rough season, his experience in the NL West could aid the Padres, and he may be the best chance for the team to add a frontline arm at a discount, if he can bounce back. Merrill Kelly Another former Diamondback is available in Kelly. He was traded to the Texas Rangers at the trade deadline, posting a 4.23 ERA while striking out 46 batters in 55 1/3 innings with his new team. Before the trade, he had a 3.22 ERA with 121 strikeouts over 128 2/3 innings. Over his seven-year career, he's failed to reach 150 innings only once (excluding the shortened 2020 season). Kelly is older than the three pitchers mentioned above (37), so he could serve as a one-year option that won't break the bank ($15-20 million). The one-year deal could be a smart gamble considering he also has experience within the NL West, and the fact that's made at least 30 starts in three of the past four campaigns. His ceiling is lower than everyone else here, but reliability is arguably more of a need than pure talent in San Diego's rotation. Ultimately, whichever arms the Padres pursue this winter, strategically adding a frontline starter who balances performance, durability, and budget will be key to their aspirations for 2026. Their offseason decisions at the top of their rotation may well determine how far this team goes next year. View full article

Yu Darvish has suffered another medical issue that may ultimately be a career-ending injury. It was announced on Tuesday, November 4, that Darvish will miss the entire 2026 season after undergoing surgery to repair a flexor tendon and an internal brace in his elbow. The recovery time for the ulnar collateral ligament is usually 12 to 15 months. This timeline means Darvish will be in his mid-40s when he attempts a return. At that age, it's not encouraging that he will be able to make an adequate return. The righty missed the beginning of the 2025 season due to elbow inflammation, making his debut in July, and ultimately starting only 15 games. The veteran struggled over his 72 innings of work, posting a 5.38 ERA, a career worst, and struck out 68 batters. His 23 percent strikeout percentage was also a career worst. This injury comes at a bad time for the San Diego Padres. When healthy, Darvish is an inning-eater, which isn't easy to replace. The Padres also lost fellow inning-eater Dylan Cease to free agency, and Michael King has opted out of his contract, becoming a free agent. That's three front-end starters that the Padres need to account for. The team will welcome back 32-year-old Joe Musgrove, but he is returning from Tommy John surgery that forced him to sit out this past season, so his effectiveness will be a question mark. With Musgrove likely to be on the 26-man roster, the Padres must also fill at least two more rotation spots after losing Darvish, Cease, and King. Current rotation pieces include ace Nick Pivetta, Randy Vásquez, JP Sears, and Matt Waldron, all of whom are candidates for rotation or bullpen roster spots. Only Pivetta (2.87 ERA) and Vásquez (3.84 ERA) posted under a 5.00 ERA last season, emphasizing the urgent need to acquire another front-end starter for both competitive and roster stability, while considering financial limitations. The Padres, currently 25th in Competitive Balance Tax Space ($52 million), must navigate available roster spots and budget as they replace front-end rotation members. The front office also faces roster decisions at additional positions, needing a power bat, a first baseman, or a designated hitter. It must also decide if Freddie Fermin can claim the catcher roster spot for the whole season. View full article

Robert Suarez , the San Diego Padres' star closer, opted out of his five-year contract signed in 2023. He had $16 million left on the deal. Now 34, Suárez is among the most attractive free agents. He had a career-high 40 saves this season with a 2.97 ERA in 69 2/3 innings. He led the National League in saves, trailing only Carlos Estévez (42) of the Kansas City Royals for the MLB lead. According to Spotrac, Suárez's market value spans four years, totaling $67 million, with an annual salary of $16.8 million. He likely wants another large payday before age 40. He is the top closer available, with Raisel Iglesias, Ryan Helsley, and Devin Williams as the main alternatives. Edwin Díaz could also opt out, and Andrés Muñoz has a club option. Both are younger and will draw attention. View full rumor