Buyer Beware: Three Free-Agent Hitters The Padres Should Avoid

After a tough NLDS loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2024, the San Diego Padres entered the offseason with high hopes—only to stumble and fall to the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card round this past season. Now, as the Winter Meetings begin, big names are signing, but the Padres, facing tight finances, must tread carefully. Their projected 2026 payroll is $201 million, down $10 million from last season.

They still have $43 million before they reach the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, but with the ownership group contemplating selling the team, that amount may not be in their budget. The team will need to be strategic with how they approach free agency this offseason and can't just pursue the "beauty of the ball". With that in mind, here are three players that the Padres DO NOT need to sign.

Luis Arráez, 1B/2B
Arráez wasn't much of a producer offensively last season, posting career lows with a .719 OPS and .289 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). For the first time in his seven MLB seasons, his BABIP fell below .300. He did avoid strikeouts, fanning only 21 times last season, but his refusal to draw walks—just 34 in 675 plate appearances—limits his value. He is a contact hitter who recorded a mere 1.1 percent barrel rate in 2025, another personal low.

Defensively, Arráez was the Padres' primary first baseman last season, logging 993 2/3 innings at the position, with only 82 innings at second base. The Padres do not need him at either spot. Jake Cronenworth firmly handles second base when healthy. Arráez posted a positive fWAR (0.9) last season, but his -16.6 defensive rating from FanGraphs is a clear liability. He is a below-average defender at a position most notably held by power hitters. The Padres could use an upgrade over Gavin Sheets at first base, but Arráez is not that solution.

Cody Bellinger, OF
Bellinger's name is everywhere this offseason, aside from Kyle Tucker. Every contender seems linked to him. He managed a strong rebound at the plate after missing 32 games in both 2023 and 2024. He played 152 games this year, the most since 2019. Although he's hit 23 or more home runs each of the past four seasons, his BABIP has topped .300 only once since 2019, when he hit 47 home runs. Bellinger, like Arráez, does not walk enough. He struck out a career-low 13.7 percent of the time but walked only 57 times in 656 plate appearances (8.7 percent). Given his contact approach, his BABIP should be better for an everyday starter.

Defensively, Bellinger is solid in the outfield with a +8 and +7 DRS (defensive runs saved) in the corner outfield positions, but was a liability in center field with a -3 rating. He won't take innings from Fernando Tatis Jr., who just won his second Gold Glove Award in right field, but Bellinger would be a slight improvement over Ramón Laureano (+2 DRS) in left field. However, Bellinger's inconsistency at the plate doesn't warrant the massive contract he will receive.

J.T. Realmuto, C
Freddy Fermin is currently the starting catcher, but he lacks experience as a primary catcher despite four years in the league. Defensively, he excels, ranking second among eligible MLB catchers with a +13 DRS over 803 1/3 innings, though he offers little offensive upside. He had a 1.0 fWAR last season but had a -11 offensive rating.

An upgrade is likely needed, but Realmuto doesn't need to be that guy. The former Phillie turns 35 before the season begins and has caught in at least 110 games in nine of his 12 MLB seasons. That workload will wear on catchers quicker than other positions.

Offensively, he doesn't provide enough upside to warrant the $10-15 million annual contract. However, Realmuto's BABIP has exceeded .300 in all but one of his 12 MLB seasons. Striking out is an issue, doing so 23.5 percent of the time last season, and he only hit 12 home runs and 52 RBIs in 550 plate appearances. The catcher doesn't produce enough offensive production to warrant the Padres paying for him, since Fermin outperforms him defensively. There are cheaper options available, or give Luis Campusano a sixth try to live up to the hype he produced as a prospect.

I'm anticipating a relatively quiet Winter Meetings for the Padres, given their financial limitations; however, this is when crazy acquisitions happen, so who knows what will happen.