How Nestor Cortes Exorcised His Past Demons & Reset Expectations

[Randy Holt]

The most surprising element of the San Diego Padres' series victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers this weekend wasn't so much that they won the series. It was how they went about it. 

Not only did the offense show up in ways that we hadn't seen against that particular opponent going back to last year's postseason, the Padres received two of the highest-possible percentile outings from each of Yu Darvish & Nestor Cortes. While Darvish had previously flashed signs of the pitcher of old, the start from Cortes stands out as especially impressive given his recent history, both against Los Angeles and in general.

Combined with his pair of starts with Milwaukee prior to an injury keeping him out until the trade deadline, the output from Cortes has been relatively uninspiring. On the season, the lefty has pitched to a 4.66 ERA and 7.18 FIP to go along with a 20.0 percent strikeout rate and 12.0 percent walk rate. The long ball has been a particular source of woe for Cortes in 2025, as he's working off a HR/FB rate a touch over 21 percent, a number largely wrought by a start at Yankee Stadium in which he surrendered five to his former club (to say nothing of his third start with San Diego in which he gave up another three in one inning against the San Francisco Giants). 

Things have improved with the Padres, however. Across his quartet of starts thus far in August, he's turned in a 3.00 ERA, a still-not-great-but-much-improved 5.40 FIP, a 19.5 K%, and a 9.2 BB%. His HR/FB% is down to 14.3 in a Padres uniform. None of it is screaming that we're seeing the Cortes of 2022, but you'll take that type of production at the back of the rotation. 

Even with the improvement we've seen during his brief time in San Diego, though, the start against the Dodgers came across as something quite shocking. 

That shock comes largely due to the last time we saw Cortes throw in a high-leverage game against this Dodgers team. In last year's postseason, it was Cortes who served up the walk-off grand slam to Freddie Freeman. Considering that history, Cortes' previous start in which he allowed three long balls to the Giants, and the fact that the Dodgers rank second in the league in home runs, things didn't appear to bode well ahead of Saturday's start. 

And yet, Cortes showed up and turned in six innings of one-hit ball to put the Padres back atop the division for a spell. It was just the second time this season that Cortes has completed six full innings of work, and the first time he didn't walk a single hitter. Indeed, his location data from the start is indicative of a pitcher in total control of everything he was throwing: 

The most notable change from what we'd seen from Cortes in his previous starts was the incorporation of the sweeper at a higher rate. It's a pitch he's only thrown roughly 12 percent of the time, but that was bumped up in a not-insignificant way on Saturday: 

Including that start, the last two outings for Cortes have featured the highest usage of that particular pitch. While his changeup usage had been climbing since joining the Padres, he took a big step back on deploying the offspeed in favor of the sweeper. The results were exactly what you'd hope to find, too:

Cortes isn't the type of pitcher who is going to garner high whiff totals. Especially when he's so heavy on cutter and four-seam usage, but the sweeper serving as a factor on that side of things could be important. That pitch had represented his most frequent non-fastball offering up until his six starts this year, when he started to utilize the changeup at a higher rate. Its increased presence could be indicative of the way in which Cortes could use that pitch to play off of his two primary pitch types. 

Ultimately, we'll need a larger sample before the usage becomes a legitimate point of discussion. Our immediate concern at present is the start itself and what it means. Cortes has turned in strong work for the Padres outside of the one inning in San Francisco, but he was able to demonstrate something we hadn't quite seen yet: efficiency. A start like that against an opponent like that isn't only going to help the Padres secure a postseason position, but is going to make the bridge between the starting gate and the bullpen that much smoother. And given where things stand with the construction of this pitching staff, that really is the only thing that matters.

They don't need Cortes to be the 2022 version of himself, when he nearly touched four Wins Above Replacement for the Yankees; they just need him to bring this brand of efficiency.

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