How Much of a Decline are the Padres in for Without Xander Bogaerts?

[Randy Holt]

There was a point this year where it looked like shortstop was a position of dire need for the San Diego Padres. Year 3 of the Xander Bogaerts deal looked to be an imminent disaster and, with the team struggling to find offense, a way out of the contract was floated by many across the baseball blogosphere. It's been rather quiet on that front since, however.

The reason for that is once we worked our way through that tumultuous period, Bogaerts has gone on to have a solid year for the Friars. In fact, he's been almost entirely average as a performer. Given where the Padres should be with some of their other pieces on offense, that's something you're more than happy to accept out of the six. But, since the start of June, he's also been one of the better players the position has to offer. 

Since June 1, Bogaerts ranks 12th among 25 qualifying shortstops in fWAR (2.1). He also sits 12th in wRC+ (112), seventh in strikeout rate (15.7 percent), 13th in walk rate (7.3 percent). His modest ISO (.145) checks in at 16th, but his nine steals since that point rank 11th. From a full season standpoint, Bogaerts is carrying a .262/.330/.387 slash with a 103 wRC+ and 20 steals. He's compensated for his sharp power decline with a certain prowess on the bases, including the decent swipe volume and a 1.5 BsR metric that pegs him as an above-average runner in more than just steals. In short, the Padres have had a decidedly average player in most respects manning shortstop for them in 2025. 

The contract, obviously, does not match the production. But, considering where things stood just a few months ago, it's production you'll happily take in the mix with such bats as Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill elsewhere in the lineup. It's a worthwhile skill set to compliment those stars, at the very least. 

Which is going to make replacing even that average production quite difficult, especially when your shortstop production beyond the starter looks like this: 

Iglesias has been the name grabbing the early time at short in Bogaerts' absence as the latter deals with a foot fracture. He's been an important part of the team's bench this year, but that's due almost exclusively to his versatility. He's played 39 games at second base, 19 at third, 24 at shortstop, and has two innings in left field to his name. Since Bogaerts went down, it's been Iglesias and his early 0-for-13 stretch as a lineup regular working in his stead. 

That the Padres are going to be forced to deploy Iglesias in an everyday role is certainly cause for concern. His 64 wRC+ on the year isn't coming from the world of a small sample; there just isn't much that the bat has to offer. Given that, one does wonder if the other choice, Mason McCoy, could offer just a bit more. 

In 98 games with El Paso this year, McCoy posted a wRC+ of 89, with a .272/.354/.450 slash, a .178 ISO, and 17 steals. There's much more of a penchant for strikeouts than we see with Iglesias (25.6 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A), but he does offer at least the potential to run into a bit of impact at the plate. 

While never an upper-tier prospect, McCoy did find his way into MLB Pipeline's Top 30 list for the Baltimore Orioles back in 2020. His scouting report had the following to say: 

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Despite a lack of loud tools, McCoy is a well-rounded player who can contribute in various areas on the diamond. His lack of power limits his offensive ceiling, but a disciplined all-fields approach has allowed McCoy to consistently hit for average over the course of his career. He plays with a bit of a chip on his shoulder and has continued to perform well despite often being overlooked.

McCoy has become something of a minor league journeyman in the years since, appearing in each of Baltimore, Seattle, and Toronto's system prior to his arrival in San Diego's in 2024. While you're not going to get even Bogaerts' level of production out of him, it does stand to reason that McCoy could offer a bit more than Iglesias as the Padres work to bridge the gap between now and the end of the month, when Bogaerts could be back in the mix. 

That's especially true when you consider the baserunning component. That was a primary factor that Bogaerts offered the lineup. He was able to work his way on base and provide a source of competence in that respect. Iglesias is not only a below-average bat, but a below-average baserunner. McCoy not only offers a touch more upside at the plate, but much more of it in those rare instances that he winds up on base. 

That seems a worthy tradeoff as you work to find some level of production in the absence of Xander Bogaerts. Such a scenario would allow the team to continue rolling Iglesias out as a utility infielder to give the other starters a day off in this final stretch of the regular season. Of course, it's a route the team could also go by simply moving Iglesias around and inserting McCoy on days in which someone like Machado or Jake Cronenworth needs a breather. But that would leave a notable gap in the lineup at two spots, rather than one. 

Ultimately, it's an entirely unenviable situation for the Padres. Even if Bogaerts wasn't performing at a level akin to his days in Boston, he was still a source of stability in the lineup. Now without him, there's a rock-and-a-hard-place scenario playing out in San Diego with no "correct" answer in sight. There's an argument to be made that it should be McCoy, but it's likely going to be a limp to the finish out of that spot no matter which way the chips fall.

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