Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Recent Power Surge Could Signal A Padres Lineup Finally Rounding Into Form

[Pratik Sharma]

With Fernando Tatis Jr. finally breaking his homerless streak on Wednesday night, he’s brought a much-needed spark to the San Diego Padres' lineup, which might be the start of a more consistent and powerful offense as they push toward October.

Tatis ended a 27-game slump with his 20th home run of the season, a towering 441-foot home run.

This increase, with three home runs this month, matches up with improved barrel contact and exit velocities, suggesting some mechanical adjustments that might impact the batting lineup as a whole.

In a game where the Padres scored 10 runs against the Rockies, Tatis's three-run homer in the second inning really set the stage, allowing for solid contributions from players like Luis Arraez and Freddy Fermin, who together racked up five hits and five RBIs.

Tatis had a rough patch earlier this year, going 128 plate appearances without a homer, the longest stretch of his career. This slump happened alongside the team's struggles, including a five-game losing streak that was finally broken by the win in Colorado.

During this tough time, his average exit velocity fell below 93 mph, and his launch angle was only 8.9 degrees in 2025, which made it harder for him to hit home runs. (Per Baseball Savant).

Still, recent patterns indicate a comeback. His barrel percentage rose to 14.5% in 2024, and in the matches after the dry spell, the exit velocities on homers averaged 110 mph, with launch angles adjusted for distance.

This mechanical change, possibly featuring a more responsive barrel as Tatis himself mentioned, addresses previous challenges such as over-swinging after his injury, allowing him to take advantage of pitches in the strike zone.

The Padres had scored fewer than five runs in four of those five losses, but Tatis's homer ignited a six-run inning, showing how his power can compel pitchers to adapt, creating chances for on-base threats like Arraez, who has a .316 batting average in 2025. His OPS rises to .866 when he's at bat with runners in scoring position, boosting his contribution to the team's scoring.

In 2024, Tatis wrapped up with 21 home runs and a .276 batting average, but in 2025, he experienced a slight drop to .262 with 20 homers, mainly because of some inconsistent slumps.

His hard-hit rate hit 55.8% in 2024 and has carried over to 52.1% this year, showing he’s still making solid contact.
It is noted that Tatis's no-doubter home runs made up 40% of his total in 2024, and this trend is still going strong with shots like the 441-footer that reached a max exit velocity of 116.7 mph.

This could be linked to better plate discipline; Tatis cut his chase rate by 5% during this hot streak, leading to improved pitch selection and higher launch angles for extra-base hits.

Tatis's added efforts, including a single and a 419-foot flyout that might have cleared the fence in other parks, forecast an xHR of 24.3 for 2024, suggesting there's more to come if he maintains this level.

During August and September 2024, the team's performance, which saw them alternating between five-game win and loss streaks, pointed to larger issues: a .771 team OPS in losses against .866 in wins, frequently tied to a lack of power.

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