Are Bryce Johnson's Heroic Efforts Off the Bench All Smoke and Mirrors?

[Andy Johnson]

If you take a look at Bryce Johnson’s game logs with the Padres in 2025, you might think he is the greatest bench piece of all time.

Johnson has been a revelation off the pine for the Padres. Here’s where his numbers lie after his first career home run, which came during a pinch-hit appearance against the Rockies:

In games Johnson enters as a pinch-hitter: 2-for-5, HR, BB, 2 RBI (1.600 OPS) 

In games Johnson enters as a pinch runner: 2-for-4, 3 R, SB (1.000 OPS) 

In games Johnson enters as a defensive substitute: 7-for-9, 2 2B, 2 BB, SB, 2 RBI (1.818 OPS) 

Overall, in games when Johnson comes off the bench, he is 11-for-18 with a home run, two doubles, three walks, two steals, three runs scored and four runs batted in. He has a 1.556 OPS in 21 plate appearances in games when he comes off the bench. He’s also never committed an error or been caught stealing. Essentially, Johnson has been nearly flawless when coming off the bench. 

Compare that to the fourteen games he’s started. In 49 plate appearances, he is slashing .283/.286/.326. Off the bench, Johnson has been Barry Bonds. As a starter, he’s Victor Robles. 

What’s the story here? Is Bryce Johnson really breaking out, or are his numbers a mirage, propped up by a lucky string of hits late in games that he entered off the bench? Let’s take a deep dive, looking at his Baseball Savant page. 

One thing Johnson is doing exceptionally well this season is hitting the ball in the sweet spot of the bat. He’s hit the ball in the launch angle sweet spot 42.7% of the time, which is among the best in baseball. It’s a big reason why his expected batting average is .302. Still not as good as his actual batting average of .371, but a .302 expected average is impressive. 

Unfortunately, that’s where the positive metrics end for Johnson. 

His average exit velocity is low, at 86.7 MPH. It’s only a slight improvement over his career average exit velocity, which is exactly 86 MPH. That's not a large enough improvement to explain his WOBA jumping from .243 to .390, and indicating that regression will likely come soon. His barrel rate is also low, at just 6.4%. Again, better than his career 3.5% barrel rate, but not by enough to indicate Johnson has figured things out at the MLB level. 

A similar story can be told when looking at Johnson’s hard-hit rate. In 2025, he has a 31.9% hard-hit rate. That’s a big improvement from his 24.1% hard-hit rate in 2023 and 2024, but it still ranks among the bottom fifth of the league. Johnson’s 68.7 MPH bat speed is not very impressive either, sitting around the tenth percentile when compared to the rest of the MLB. His 20.5% squared-up rate is also around the tenth percentile.

Johnson is also whiffing too much, striking out at a 25% clip. And while he’s never had a great eye, he has a career-low 4.4% walk rate in 2025. As such, you shouldn't be surprised to learn that his quality of contact numbers are also troubling. The outfielder is making weak contact 14.9% of the time, compared to the MLB average of 4%. He’s also rarely, if ever, making solid contact.

It’s clear Johnson’s numbers are probably better than where they should be based on the advanced metrics, but why is that? What is Johnson doing that is allowing him to get so many hits, particularly off the bench as a substitute? 

One thing he’s doing is crushing sinkers. Against the sinker, Johnson has a .667 batting average and a .664 WOBA. He has a 54.5% hard-hit rate against the sinker, meaning he’s making hard contact more than half the time a sinker is thrown to him. 

It’s great to see Johnson have so much success against that pitch type, but there is an easy fix for opposing pitchers. All they need to do is throw more fastballs. Against four-seam fastballs, Johnson is hitting .167, with a .150 wOBA. He’s whiffing 40.5% of the time against fastballs and striking out 38.5% of the time. 

Last year, 40.7% of pitches thrown to Johnson were fastballs. In 2023, 44.9% were fastballs. This year, he’s seeing a career-low 31.4% of pitches as fastballs. On the other hand, he’s seeing a career-high amount (14.4%) sinkers. 

Why isn’t Johnson getting fastballs as often? It’s probably because so many of his plate appearances are coming at the end of games against relievers on mop-up duty. The Padres have not utilized him much in high-leverage at-bats, and there’s probably a good reason for that. 

While it’s cool what Johnson has done with his opportunity, the final verdict is clear: These numbers are not sustainable. Johnson can still be a weapon off the bench with his good baserunning and defense, but don’t expect to see him as an everyday starter anytime soon.

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