Do the Padres Have a Path to Overcoming Cubs' Lefty Starters?

[Randy Holt]

When the San Diego Padres step into the box at Wrigley Field on each of Tuesday and Wednesday, they'll have a left-handed member of the Chicago Cubs' rotation looking down on them. An opponent down a budding star in Cade Horton will turn to the likes of Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd to begin the wild card set in Chicago. Whether that's good news or bad for a lefty-leaning San Diego lineup, however, remains to be seen. 

A typical Padres lineup features the following left-handed hitters: Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, Luis Arráez, Ryan O'Hearn, and Gavin Sheets. That's over half the lineup taking hacks from that side of the plate, with the late finger injury to Ramón Laureano essentially locking Sheets into left and some sort of combination of Arráez & O'Hearn at first base and designated hitter. 

As a team, the Padres have a collective wRC+ of just 96 against southpaws this season. That figure ranks 17th among their MLB counterparts in 2025. They're 15th in batting average (.244), 14th in on-base percentage (.316), and 23rd in isolated power (.130). From a standpoint of the Padres' own lefties, this is where each sits in terms of production this season: 

• Jackson Merrill: .236/.278/.369, 20.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, 81 wRC+
• Jake Cronenworth: .248/.373/.353, 19.4 K%, 12.7 BB%, 116 wRC+
• Luis Arráez: .262/.294/.350, 4.9 K%, 3.9 BB%, 82 wRC+
• Ryan O'Hearn (45 PA): .341/.400/.659, 26.7 K%, 6.7 BB%, 195 wRC+
• Gavin Sheets (153 PA): .255/.301/.369, 18.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, 89 wRC+

It's not a particularly encouraging distribution from the jump, especially when you compound those numbers with Fernando Tatis Jr being less effective against lefties (104 wRC+) and Freddy Fermin serving as a virtual non-factor (8 wRC+). Only Manny Machado (128 wRC+) and Xander Bogaerts (114 wRC+) have proven reliable with any kind of regularity in left-handed matters.

And the bad news doesn't stop there. 

Each of Imanaga & Boyd has, somewhat predictably, been quite good against hitters of the same handedness. Imanaga allowed a .276 wOBA against lefties this season with a 23.4 percent strikeout rate and 3.62 FIP. Boyd, meanwhile, went for a .258 wOBA, 23.5 K%, and 2.63 FIP. Both pitchers, also predictably, have been quite a bit better against left-handed hitters than those that swing righty. None of the ideas presented thus far would appear to bode super well for the San Diego lineup. 

If there is a path forward, though, it's likely going to come against Shota Imanaga, for two reasons. The first is that his walk rate is actually quite a bit higher against lefties (6.9 percent) than it is against righties (3.8 percent). The Padres have walked at the league's sixth-highest rate against left-handed pitchers (8.9 percent). Some traffic on the bases would serve the Padres well, especially if it's their desire to get a starter removed early to get a right-handed arm out of the bullpen early. Additionally, Imanaga allowed a 52.0 percent hard hit rate and a .309 xBA against left-handed hitters in September. So, he's not on a terrific trajectory against same-handedness hitters at this particular moment in time. 

It, at the very least, offers quite a bit more optimism than a path against Boyd. In addition to Boyd pinning down the ability of left-handed hitters to reach base at all (.280 OBP), the quality of contact he's allowed throughout the year has remained rather steady and topped out back in May (43.4 Hard-Hit%). Beyond that, the Padres have to hope that his highest volume of innings since 2019 catches up to him. Or, that the lineup's right-handed group can go to work in a manner that includes Tatis Jr and, perhaps, even Fermin.

That's also assuming the Padres, ultimately, get very little out of their left-handed hitters in the first place. But there is room for at least some level of optimism. Ryan O'Hearn has been quite good against southpaws. Jake Cronenworth has demonstrated a keen approach regardless of from which hand a pitcher is throwing. Jackson Merrill's September surge included a 44.0 Hard-Hit% that stands as his highest against left-handed pitchers in any given month. Gavin Sheets just had his best quality-of-contact month since June and could be in for an uptick in actual production if it weren't for a groundball rate near 50%. Even a bit of elevation from him could yield some dividends in the impact game. 

So, while it's not a terribly uplifting outlook overall, there are various paths that the Padres could take toward discovering some success against the Cubs' two left-handed starters. And it's not as if they need to do it for three games. If they could scratch through against even one of Imanaga or Boyd, that leaves them with the potential for a Jameson Taillon or Colin Rea matchup in a prospective Game 3. 

The ultimate point remains, however, that while some of the lineup may be stifled by the Cubs on the virtues of their lefty starters alone, there are some components working back toward San Diego's favor. It might just require a bit of patience or good fortune to get there.

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