Running The Numbers On The Padres-Cubs Game Two Matchup

[Brock Beauchamp]

Chicago will treat today as a tandem day on the mound: Andrew Kittredge will open, then Shota Imanaga will follow with a bulk outing. Kittredge worked a clean eighth yesterday. This season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .690 OPS and left-handed hitters to a .541 OPS while his season FIP sits at 3.40. Over his last six starts, Imanaga has a 5.97 ERA with 12 home runs allowed in 34 2/3 innings, and he has allowed 31 homers in 144 2/3 frames this year. 

Imanaga Against Padres Hitters

Shota Imanaga vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Luis Arráez	L	10	9	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	.111	.200	.111	.311	0	0	0	0	0
2	Xander Bogaerts	R	9	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
3	Manny Machado	R	9	9	1	0	0	1	1	0	6	.111	.111	.444	.556	0	0	0	0	0
4	Fernando Tatis Jr.	R	9	8	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	.375	.444	.375	.819	0	0	0	0	0
5	Jake Cronenworth	L	6	6	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.500	.833	0	0	0	0	0
6	Martín Maldonado	R	6	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	.200	.333	.800	1.133	0	0	0	0	1
7	Jose Iglesias	R	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	.750	.750	1.000	1.750	0	0	0	0	0
8	Jackson Merrill	L	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.667	1.000	0	0	0	0	0
9	Freddy Fermin	R	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.500	.000	.500	0	0	0	1	0
10	Gavin Sheets	L	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 10/1/2025.

Dylan Cease draws a conventional start for San Diego. His overall season included ups and downs, but his September trend was upward: in five starts last month, he recorded a 3.12 ERA with a 2.56 FIP.

Cease Against Cubs Hitters

Dylan Cease vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Ian Happ	B	24	21	1	0	0	0	0	3	10	.048	.167	.048	.214	0	0	0	0	1
2	Willi Castro	B	23	23	5	0	0	1	2	0	8	.217	.217	.348	.565	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kyle Tucker	L	14	12	4	1	0	0	1	2	3	.333	.429	.417	.845	0	0	1	0	0
4	Nico Hoerner	R	13	9	2	1	0	0	0	3	2	.222	.462	.333	.795	0	0	1	1	0
5	Michael Busch	L	9	8	2	0	0	2	4	1	4	.250	.333	1.000	1.333	0	0	0	0	0
6	Justin Turner	R	8	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.125	.125	.125	.250	0	0	0	0	0
7	Pete Crow-Armstrong	L	5	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	.500	.600	.750	1.350	0	0	0	0	0
8	Dansby Swanson	R	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
9	Reese McGuire	L	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
10	Seiya Suzuki	R	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
11	Matt Shaw	R	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	.500	.500	.500	1.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 10/1/2025.

Bullpen usage from yesterday shapes how both sides can deploy relief behind today’s starters. For Chicago, Matthew Boyd covered 4 1/3 innings before the bullpen recorded a postseason-record stretch by retiring 14 consecutive batters without a baserunner. Daniel Palencia handled 1 2/3 innings, followed by one inning each from Drew Pomeranz, Kittredge, and Brad Keller. 

San Diego used four relievers behind Nick Pivetta’s five innings. Mason Miller pitched the 7th inning. Adrian Morejon covered one inning. Jeremiah Estrada worked 2/3 of an inning, and Wandy Peralta recorded the final 1/3 of the 8th. That usage left the Padres’ late-inning group relatively distributed entering today, with Cease on a standard starter’s workload. 

Matchup-wise, Kittredge’s opening inning will likely see him face Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Arraez, and Manny Machado. The Cubs used him yesterday in that same section of the order. Once Imanaga enters, Chicago can stagger right-on-left plate appearances for San Diego’s middle, then turn back to late-inning options after 2 or 3 trips through the order. 

On the other side, Cease’s September FIP hopefully represents what the Padres will receive in a must-win game. With both teams’ bullpens active yesterday but receiving an off-day on Monday, almost everyone should be available out of the bullpen based on game situation.

Padres Bullpen Usage

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	TOT
Estrada	0	19	0	0	10	29
Morgan	18	0	21	0	0	39
Miller	25	17	0	0	13	55
Hart	16	0	0	0	0	16
Suárez	0	9	0	0	0	9
Morejón	0	8	0	0	9	17
Peralta	21	0	0	0	6	27
Rodríguez	21	0	21	0	0	42
Matsui	0	37	0	0	0	37
Vasquez	0	0	19	0	0	19

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