Padres Rule 5 Planning: Debating Which Notable Prospects Need 40-man Roster Protection

As San Diego Padres fans know well, the Rule 5 draft is an easy way to find cheap talent. Remember 2016 when the Friars took three players, all of whom made it to the Opening Day roster?

Usually there is a reason a player is left unprotected, most of them having to do with a flaw in their game. However, sometimes that reason is a team just doesn’t have enough spots on the 40-man roster available to protect everyone who needs protecting, though that's usually reserved for the franchises with the better farm systems.

Space on the 40-man isn’t a problem for the Padres. The Friars came out of the weekend with only 30 spots accounted for on their 40-man roster. Players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft are those signed at age 18 or younger five years ago (or earlier) as well as those signed at 19 or older at least four years prior.

Of course, we have to acknowledge that this whole process is in flux this year. One part of the collective bargaining agreement being negotiated that is of interest has been the Rule 5 draft. Typically held in December as the final event of the Winter Meetings—technically slated to be held in San Diego but a virtual certainty not to happen—there has been talk that it would be moved up to late November. The MLB Players Association wants it to happen Nov. 24. The owners have made a proposal that instead of having to stay on a major-league roster all season, Rule 5 selections could be sent to the minors, but that is also contingent on a salary cap, which is a nonstarter for the union, so that part of the process might be pushed to next offseason. There is a minor-league portion of the Rule 5 draft that is expected to happen regardless. The minors have a separate collective bargaining agreement that expires next offseason.

With all that said, we'll operate under the assumption that the Rule 5 draft will happen in some capacity. As such, let’s take a look at the Padres prospects who might be worthy of protecting.

Tucker Musgrove, RHP

A seventh-round draft choice in 2023, the right-handed reliever should be a lock to be protected. He has the potential to be a lockdown reliever with triple-digit heat. Musgrove, who will turn 25 before spring training, split 2026 between High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio after not making his pro debut until 2025 due to Tommy John surgery.

All Padres Mission’s No. 12 prospect did was put up a 42.8% strikeout rate (Mason Miller’s was 47.4%, for reference) to go along with a 3.41 ERA. After just 15 games in 2025 (he was handled gently in his comeback from right elbow surgery and a few setbacks in that process), Musgrove threw just 34⅓ innings over 34 games this year. That included four appearances of between four and six outs, all in a seven-game stretch. He also had a 15.7% walk rate, seven percentage points above the MLB average.

Musgrove has a four-seamer that can reach triple digits and a sinker not far behind, then a cutter. He also features a sweeper and a slider that can be nice complements to the hard stuff. He would be an ideal candidate for a pitching-starved team to grab as a last player in the bullpen. The Padres don’t need him on the MLB roster at the moment, but he could be in consideration for a call-up at some point in 2027 if injuries hit the relief corps. It would be a mistake to let an arm like this slip away.

Luis Gutierrez, LHP

The 23-year-old left-handed starter, signed as an international free agent out of Venezuela in 2019, hit the injured list after just three games due to a bum left shoulder. He returned to make 10 more starts—five between Triple-A El Paso and Double-A San Antonio—but only logged 36 innings for the season. That lack of innings this year makes him a risky proposition for any MLB team to carry him as a starter, but he could be a long man out of the bullpen, where his innings could be better managed.

Gutierrez had an 11.6% walk rate and 28.4% strikeout rate in 2026. He handled full workload in 2025, pitching 125 innings over 25 games (21 starts) while posting an 8.3% walk rate and 21.8% strikeout, to go along with a 3.31 ERA. Of those starts, 13 came at High-A Fort Wayne. Gutierrez is more of a long shot to get picked in the Rule 5 draft.

Jagger Haynes, LHP

The 24-year-old was the Padres’ fifth-round selection in the 2020 draft and doesn’t have the health questions of Musgrove and Gutierrez. Haynes made 27 starts this year, 18 at Double-A San Antonio and another nine at Triple-A El Paso, plus a relief appearance at the latter. He had a 4.80 ERA over 135 innings with a 10.5% walk rate and 19.9% strikeout rate. He also allowed a .244 opponent batting average, the highest of his four professional seasons.

Padres Mission’s No. 13 prospect had Tommy John surgery that caused him to not make his pro debut until 2023. He doesn’t have a real attractive trait where a team might take a shot with him purely based on projectability. His four-seamer sits in the low-90s, with a really nice slider and a good changeup. Perhaps a team that knows how to fix pitchers sees something to work with, but it doesn’t feel like Haynes will get one of those valuable 40-man spots.

Other Key Eligible Players

• OF Braedon Karpathios
• OF Jake Cunningham
• 1B Romeo Sanabria
• IF Rosman Verdugo
• C Lamar King Jr.
• RHP Ian Koenig
• RHP Carson Montgomery
• RHP Francis Pena
• RHP Eric Yost
• LHP Harry Gustin
• RHP Ethan Routzahn

This group is truly filled with more long shots considering the experience of some here. King, Padres Mission’s No. 10 prospect, is the biggest name here, but he has only played as high as High-A Fort Wayne this year due to the depth the Padres have at catcher in the system. He is playing in the Arizona Fall League last year after slashing .234/.327/.325 with four homers and 39 RBIs in 93 games during the regular season.

Koenig, Pena and Routzahn are other possibilities from this group. Koenig had a five-start audition at Triple-A El Paso and showed well (2.33 ERA with five walks and 22 strikeouts in 27 innings). Pena, a reliever, is being showcased in the Arizona Fall League after a terrific season at Double-A San Antonio. Routzahn, a reliever at Triple-A El Paso, had a nice first half before a few blowup outings sent his ERA skyrocketing. Anyone who isn’t at the Triple-A level is eligible for the minor-league Rule 5 draft as long as they fit the aforementioned criteria.

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