Projecting the Potential Fallout of a Catastrophic Robert Suárez Option Decision

[Randy Holt]

Among the first San Diego Padres moves to watch this winter is a decision to come from closer Robert Suárez. The man who's gotten the ninth for each of the last two years in America's Finest City carries an early termination option in his contract, wherein he can decline his $8 million for each of the next two years and become a free agent now instead of the winter of 2027-28. It's not an entirely clear-cut decision for Suárez to make, either. 

Despite a somewhat shaky close to the year (by his standards), there were a number of things that Suárez did better in Year 2 as the team's closer than in Year 1. His strikeout rate jumped five percent (27.9) while his walk rate fell to a shade under six percent. Opposing hitters went for an average of just .187 against him as Suárez emerged from 2025 with a 2.97 ERA, 2.88 FIP, and 1.9 fWAR. 

If you're looking for negatives around Suárez, that ERA rising from 2.77 in '24 is a good place to start. A primary reason is in contact trends. Suárez allowed slightly more of it (78.2 percent) at a slightly higher quality (9.1 percent barrel rate per batted ball event and a 42.6 percent hard-hit rate). When put in conjunction with fewer chases, fewer whiffs, and the consideration of a velocity-dependent pitcher hitting his age-35 season in 2026, you can start to understand why future projections are something of an issue for Suárez. 

You can also perceive why the decision to opt out isn't so obvious. A closer with 76 saves, a 2.87 ERA, and 2.8 fWAR over two seasons would stand to make a whole lot more than $8 million per year on the open market. But, considering his age and general volatility of older relievers, the interest might not be as widespread as it would if he were even just two or three years younger. Regardless, though, the expectation is that Suárez will, in fact, opt out in order to pursue a heftier contract in free agency. Even if it's on the same term, he'd almost certainly get a sizable bump in his salary.

If he chooses not to do so, the repercussion for the Padres is quite simple: he remains the team's closer. The bullpen remains a strength with the likes of Adrian Morejon, Mason Miller, and Jeremiah Estrada (among others) working the late innings to minimize pressure and allow him to remain fresh into the latter portion of the season. It's pretty black and white in terms of concept. If he does choose to exercise the early termination option, however, that's where things get really interesting for San Diego. 

There's been some talk of the team exploring a move to starting for the aforementioned Mason Miller. Would a Suárez departure lead them away from such a route in favor of inserting Miller into the ninth inning? We know it's a role he's served and one in which he excels. But if his preference is to start, is removing that as an option something the team is willing to do should a need arise for a full-time closer.

The possibility also exists where Suárez departs, Miller gets a crack at a starting gig, and it's instead someone like Morejon, Estrada, or Jason Adam getting the ninth. Perhaps someone like David Morgan and/or Bradley Rodríguez moves back to cover some of the innings lost by Miller and the new closer. It's still a group that would run deep in their ability to close down games (at least on paper) while improving an area where depth is an issue (the rotation). In fact, there's an entire world where a Suárez opt out is a net positive for the San Diego Padres. You free up $8 million to allocate elsewhere while allowing for expanded roles from players capable of handling them. 

Of course, we'll stop short of saying something to the effect of "the Padres are better off with one of the game's elite closers on their roster." It's hard to make a case for that, seeing as his presence would enable the freedom to explore something such as a Miller-to-the-rotation type of move. But a departure not only does have that benefit of some extra cash. It simply offers far more intrigue in terms of roster and pitching staff construction. The gray area feels like it would just be more fun to explore than the simple, black-and-white one. Not that "fun" is always in conversation with "correct." 

Regardless of the outcome, it's (obviously) going to have a significant impact on the roster. Where that impact factors in, though, is going to make for one of the more fascinating elements of the Padres' 2025-26 offseason.

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