San Diego Padres Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Gavin Sheets

[Joshua Hutter]

Gavin Sheets enters a pivotal season for the Padres. The left-handed bat, with multi-positional flexibility and recent flashes of power, is approaching his next arbitration year, one that could define his standing with the club going forward. Originally drafted in the second round by the Chicago White Sox in 2017 out of Wake Forest University, Gavin Sheets had the best year of his career in 2025:

• 145 Games (most in his career)
• 545 Plate Appearances (most in his career)
• .252 BA (best in his career)
• 19 HR
• 71 RBIs
• .429 SLG
• .317 OBP
• 1.3 fWAR

Gavin Sheets, 29, carved out increased playing time and showed the ability to contribute in the lineup and defensively as a position of need, whether that be left field or first base. Due to injuries to the Padres' outfield, Gavin Sheets moved to where he needed to, playing 64 games in left field and 13 at first base. He is entering his second year of arbitration, following his first in 2024 with the White Sox, where he was non-tendered before signing with the Padres as a free agent on a one-year minor league deal for the 2026 season. Gavin Sheets has two more years of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent in 2028. From the team’s perspective, the decision is whether to treat Gavin Sheets as a core role player deserving of arbitration, negotiate a multi-year deal, or look for cheaper alternatives if they believe that his upside is limited to what they saw this past season. 

There is no denying that Gavin Sheets had the best year of his career; however, you can’t overlook his past or the brief stint in the playoffs, where all of this matters the most. In the three games against the Chicago Cubs:

• 3 Games
• 6 PA
• 1 Hit (Single)
• .167 AVG

Now, these stats come from a really small sample size; however, the picture gets a little bit bigger when you look at his last season in Chicago with the White Sox:

• 145 Games
• 501 PA
• .233 BA
• 10 HR
• 45 RBI’s
• .357 SLG
• .303 OBP
• -0.8 FanGraph WAR

Now, the question really becomes: which version of Gavin Sheets will the Padres be getting? Is this a true step forward, or is this the outlier in all the statistics? To add complexity to that question, Gavin Sheets is projected to make approximately $4.3 million under arbitration, placing him in the mid-tier arbitration group. For context, players like Tyler Stephenson ($6.4 million projected) are at the higher end of this tier, whereas Jake Burger ($3.5 million) is at the lower end. Tyler Stephenson posted a FanGraphs WAR of 1.1, while Jake Burger posted -0.1 for the 2025 season.

With other pressing roster needs, the Padres must not only prioritize adding the necessary bats and run production, but also ensure they maintain the payroll flexibility required to invest in key areas, most notably, starting pitching. Building a competitive lineup only matters if the organization can support it with a rotation capable of carrying postseason aspirations. The Padres outfield graded at a decent level with what many would consider down years from All-Star Fernando Tatis Jr. and up-and-coming youngster Jackson Merrill. With the possible return of trade acquisition Ramón Laureano (the team holds a $6.5 million option), Gavin Sheets more than likely moves to a platoon in the outfield or potentially to first base, with the team not currently addressing this position of need, with Luis Arráez and Ryan O’Hearn both becoming free agents. 

Diving deeper, Gavin Sheets shows a mixed but intriguing profile, with upside and defined areas for improvement. From a batted-ball standpoint, he consistently demonstrates the ability to generate impact contact. His hard-hit rate and average exit velocity sit above league average:

• 46.5% Hard-Hit Rate (54 out of 144 Qualified Players with Qualified PA)
• 95.0 MPH Exit Velocity (72 out of 144)

This signals that when he squares the ball, the damage potential is legitimate. These metrics support the idea that there is more power in his bat than his surface-level traditional output suggests. Meaning, he brings more contact quality than pure contract frequency. However, there are also still notable concerns. His chase rate and swing-decision metrics lag a little.

• 23% Whiff Rate (86 out of 144)
• 31.4% Chase
• 59.6% Zone Swing (126 out of 144)
• 36.9% Out-of-Zone Swing (108 out of 144)

The Zone Swing % shows that there are more hittable strikes that he is not swinging at, while his chase shows that he swings at out-of-zone pitches more than average. Overall, Gavin Sheets makes good contact when he swings at strikes, but his overall swing decision profile shows two side effects: he isn’t swinging aggressively at enough strikes, while he swings slightly too often at bad pitches. This all points to the fact that he has the raw skills to bring to the plate, but still needs to refine his approach. 

Overall, Gavin Sheets represents a meaningful piece in the Padres’ lineup strategy, especially given affordability and flexibility. The team would be prudent to retain him through arbitration, and if the metrics line up, consider locking him in as part of their long-term depth plan. With the right breakout, he could become a key contributor rather than simply a role player.

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