San Diego Padres Arbitration Decisions & Projections: JP Sears

[Joshua Hutter]

The San Diego Padres had a volatile starting rotation in 2025, mainly due to injuries and inconsistent availability, forcing the organization to continuously adapt its pitching strategy. San Diego relied on a series of spot starters to eat innings before turning it over to their All-Star-laden bullpen. In that context, JP Sears was a capable backend arm who tried to help stabilize the staff during stretches of uncertainty. 

Originally drafted in the eleventh round by the Seattle Mariners in 2017, JP Sears had a very small sample size with the Padres:

• 5 Games
• 24.2 Innings Pitched
• 5.47 ERA
• 6.18 FIP
• 18.0 K%
• 6.8 BB%
• 2.6 HR/9
• -0.1 FanGraph WAR

Sears was traded on July 31 this past season alongside Mason Miller at the trade deadline. His entire season looked like:

• 27 Games 
• 135.2 Innings Pitched
• 5.04 ERA
• 5.21 FIP
• 20.1 K%
• 6.2 BB%
• 1.99 HR/9
• 0.5 FanGraph WAR

Nothing about these numbers jumps out as exciting, which goes along with what most thought of him prior to the trade. His first start for the team against the Arizona Diamondbacks (who were sellers at the trade deadline, trading away pieces like Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez) was ugly, as he surrendered 10 hits across five innings while giving up five earned runs. After this performance, the southpaw was optioned to El Paso, where he would await spot-start duty for the remainder of the year.

Sears is entering his first year of arbitration after acquiring enough MLB service time (over three years on a roster). He remains club-controlled through the 2028 season, giving San Diego some much-needed flexibility and depth while navigating a rotation that is set to lose Michael King, Dylan Cease, and Yu Darvish next season.

Sears should cost around $3.5M in 2026, according to MLB Trade Rumors. For that price, if he can deliver production near his career average of roughly 0.9 fWAR, then Padres would be getting some value relative to his salary, while preserving payroll flexibility to address other roster needs.

The 29-year-old had a 2025 filled with ups and downs, his underlying stats offering promise and caution. His pitch selection changed significantly after he came to San Diego:

• 39.4% vs 46.3% Fastball
• 35.0% vs 29.5% Slider
• 15.4% vs 12.8% Changeup
• 5.8% vs 9.3% Sinker
• 4.4% vs 0.2% Curveball
• 0.0% vs 1.9% Cutter

We can see that he introduced a seldom-used cutter into his mix and leaned more heavily on his fastball and sinker, while scaling back his slider and changeup and almost abandoning his curveball. That shift may reflect coaching, or an adjustment made in response to pitch effectiveness. For example, his slider, his second-most used pitch, posted a +6.7 Runs Above Average mark with the Athletics, but dropped to -4.0 after coming to the Padres. Optimistically, that decline could be the product of a new environment or simple variance and sequencing luck. More cautiously, it may suggest hitters adjusted, his command wavered, or his usage patterns became too predictable.

While that looks like the start of a decline, his contract profile hints at underlying progress. His hard-hit rate improved from 40.5% to 34.9% post-trade, a promising sign for his future, especially if he can fall into a better groove with his pitch sequencing after a full offseason in Ruben Niebla's pitching lab.

With all of that being said, JP Sears is by no means going to lead the 2026 Padres rotation. There are a lot of “ifs” when it comes to his profile, but what we do know is that he will be able to give the team the ability to eat some innings on a consistent basis. That's hardly sexy, but it's of vital importance for a rotation as thin as the Padres'.

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