JP Sears Can Only Answer A Few of the Padres' Many Rotation Questions

The San Diego Padres' rotation is going to look quite a bit different in 2026. 

Michael King is likely to decline his mutual option. Dylan Cease was already set to be a free agent, as is the case for Nestor Cortes Jr. None of that trio appears all that likely to return. Joe Musgrove, though, should be back early from Tommy John surgery, and how pre-arb arms like Randy Vásquez or Matt Waldron factor in is anyone's guess. Yu Darvish returned in the second half of the year, but there are certainly longevity concerns. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the lone true holdover, with JP Sears the only other name of note that drew at least on4 start in 2025. It's a plethora of uncertainty clouding the starting group in San Diego.

A.J. Preller's approach to the trade deadline demonstrated a clear awareness of some heavy rotation turnover. In acquiring Mason Miller for an intense package of prospects that included Leo De Vries, Preller was able to also bring in Sears as part of the return. While not a particularly exciting arm, he's arbitration-eligible through 2028. Hence the appeal. 

That appeal, though, was put on hold with lackluster results in a small sample for Sears post-deadline. He turned in a 5.47 ERA in five starts with a 6.18 FIP suggesting he wasn't even that good at run prevention. Each of his K% (18.0), BB% (6.8), and HR% (6.3) were worse across his 24.2 innings with San Diego than his 111 innings with the A's. With all that said, however, it wasn't a total loss for Sears. There were, in fact, a couple of areas of improvement. 

Sears was able to limit hard contact in a way that he didn't in Sacramento, checking in at a 34.9 Hard-Hit% by Baseball Reference's measure (95 MPH or higher). He also had a groundball rate seven points higher (34.9 percent) than his time with the Athletics. Combine that with a .324 BABIP and there's enough there to suggest that while Sears' results weren't terrific, he was also something of a victim of circumstance. Luck played its role, primarily acting against Sears. 

Ultimately, those factors provide only some optimism. Sears' scouting report back in 2022 from MLB Pipeline reported the following: 

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Sears doesn't have much margin for error and succeeds by avoiding mistakes. He has a fairly simple delivery and repeats it well, enabling him to locate his pitches where he needs to. His size leads to long-term durability concerns if he remains a starter, though that's probably a moot point because he seems destined to be a multi-inning reliever who concentrates on his invisiball and slider.

The first portion of that passage certainly tracks. Sears doesn't have overpowering stuff, averaging just 91.9 MPH on his fastball (15th percentile) with a sweeper that provides only modest results. It's a fine line to walk as a starting pitcher, when you're operating with two primary pitches that would qualify as "just okay" in what they provide. It's also something of which the Padres already have a decent volume among '26 rotation candidates when one considers what Vásquez or Waldron offer. 

So, while it's possible that Sears could have more to extract from his arsenal in a full offseason program within the Padres' pitching infrastructure, it's hard to deem him as too reliable a piece as they begin to build out the 2026 rotation. The results weren't encouraging (despite a few underlying positives) and speak to his already-limited upside. Not that he won't be in the mix, mind you. The Padres only have six starting pitchers set to remain under contract on their 40-man roster at present.

But the acquisition of Sears, while important as a depth starter or length arm out of the bullpen, shouldn't preclude Preller from seeking additional help in the rotation. Not even a little bit. Getting anything out of him has to be treated as gravy; the bulk of the rotation still needs to be overhauled.