Should the Padres Circle Back to Luis Arráez to Fill Their Lineup Vacancy?

[Randy Holt]

With Japanese slugger Kazuma Okamoto agreeing to a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend, choices are suddenly limited for the San Diego Padres to round out their infield group. Specifically, it's the first base position that still lingers as one of the team's most pressing questions a mere six weeks out from the beginning of training camp.

What the team could do to fill their first base vacancy loomed as one of the top questions heading into the offseason. With each of Luis Arráez and Ryan O'Hearn reaching free agency, it represented the most obvious pathway toward bolstering the offensive production of the roster. Okamoto was a corner infielder who could've served such a purpose. Willson Contreras could've been another prior to his trade to the Boston Red Sox. With those two now off the board, O'Hearn signing in Pittsburgh, and A.J. Preller unlikely to traverse the Cody Bellinger waters, the problem of what shape first base will take for San Diego persists. Not that the team is entirely without options. 

There is certainly an in-house path toward addressing the position. Gavin Sheets is coming off something of a breakout and has first base experience. He could form something of a platoon with out-of-options backup catcher Luis Campusano, if Craig Stammen & co. were so inclined. Jake Cronenworth could also slide back over from the keystone upon the arrival of former KBO star Sung Mun Song, even if the former's offensive profile doesn't necessarily fit the spot. Should the team look outside the present roster, though, could they turn to a familiar face? 

Luis Arraez remains a free agent. He's coming off a career-best 3.5 K%, which represented the lowest full-season strikeout rate since Tony Gwynn's 1995 campaign. However, he also sat in the first percentile in hard-hit rate (16.7 percent) and barrel rate (1.1 percent), both of which were at least partially wrought by a bat speed figure that has consistently dropped in the last three years; his 62.6 MPH average bat speed was the lowest of his career. But even as a contact-only bat, he's not entirely without value to a lineup. 

Consider that his .289 batting average on balls in play represented a 35-point drop from the previous season. He still posted a line that included a .292 average and a technically-above-average 104 wRC+. Even his isolated skill set does provide value, especially within the context of a Padres lineup that, on paper, could use him as an effective supplement. In a lesser lineup, his one tool might get lost. In a San Diego lineup that employs Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, should see a bounce back year from Jackson Merrill, and features the likes of Ramón Laureano and Song, there's an argument to be made that he's still a worthy fit with this group. 

In such a scenario where the Padres were to re-sign Arráez, it takes some of the pressure off to settle first base specifically. You could roll out Sheets and/or Campusano or Cronenworth from a defensive standpoint. while Arráez serves primarily as a designated hitter to compensate for his below-average defense at the cold corner. It solidifies the lineup at what would likely be a lower price point for a cash-strapped team, too. 

Which brings us to the specific circumstances under which such a return would be logical. 

The first is that the contract would have to make sense. Arráez has just the one notable tool. With a glut of long-term contracts on the books, Preller can hardly afford to overpay on a multi-year deal, even if Arráez is still only 28. The other is that Stammen would have to avoid the tendency of hitting him near the top of the lineup in the way that Mike Shildt did. His on-base percentage isn't in good enough shape for such an integral role. If you can get him on a team-friendly, short-term deal in a way that still allows for an addition(s) on the pitching side, all while having him serve a role further down the lineup where his contact skills would get the OBP guys at the top moving around the bases, then you have a case.

A few months ago, such a move would've seemed outlandish. But as the winter and the personnel options begin to dwindle, one could make the argument that this is precisely the type of short-term move Preller should explore before pivoting back to the much larger need that continues to live on the mound.

View full article

[Stuart Shaffer]

Arraez is fun to watch, but homers are fun too, and the Padres need all of the homers they can get from their new hires.  If Mr. Preller signs FAs for his remaining position player vacancies, he might consider Nathaniel Lowe, Paul Goldschmidt, and Willi Castro.  They would be reasonably priced, have mid-range power, and Castro is the most versatile player in MLB.