Stuart Shaffer
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Everything posted by Stuart Shaffer
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The Padres' group of recently injured SPs suggests that a six man rotation would be the best way to start the season.
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All 50 states have approximately the same overall tax levels. However, they use various ways of getting the money from their citizens and visitors. Income and property taxes are more 'in your face' taxes than other revenue sources, such as sales taxes. A high money earner such as Kelly, working on a contract, is going to be acutely aware of the income tax bite. However, he'll probably never notice the sales taxes he pays every year. (Comment: I think Kelly and Nick Martinez are the two most overpaid pitchers in this year's FA class.)
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1. I think the question of bench/utility players is mostly unsettled at the moment. Castellanos, Andujar and Song will make the 26 man, but Taylor, France, Johnson, Miranda are all still candidates. 2. Note that Vasquez's velocity is up this spring. He's taking advantage of the brief outings to throw harder so the 95 mph fastball might not last, but he's also getting the best results of any SP candidate. Results matter.
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Signing Song, Andujar, and Castellanos, and talking up Campusano as a keeper apparently leaves just one position player spot available to begin 2026. The decision on that last spot often turns on back-up MI who can play SS vs. a fourth OF who can play CF. I suspect most managers, looking at the defensive capabilities of the Padres' current 12 players, would say they need both a backup CF and a backup 2B/SS. As it happens, Mr. Preller signed a young player who can play both MI and CF: Samad Taylor. Watch his performance this spring.
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Canning and Marquez establish Mr. Preller's price range. I think he needs one more potential SP, and FA Jon Gray (late of TEX) fits the bill, if he can pass a physical.
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1. As with Arenado, the rapid decline of Castellanos in 2025 makes me worry about Machado and Bogaerts. All are essentially the same age. On the hopeful side, the last thing to go on Castellanos is likely to be his ability to hit LH pitchers, but that fell off last season along with everything else. However, the selling point for the contract is its cost and the fact that the alternatives aren't any better. 2. I was hoping Mr. Preller would sign Canning. NYM made him a breaking ball pitcher and that helped a little. The Padres' pitching coach should help even more. Preller still needs two more pitchers to compensate for his bereft farm system.
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Mr. Seidler/Preller made Cronenworth almost untradeable when they decided to buy out his career.
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Mr. Preller's apparent pursuit of Goldschmidt even after signing Andujar implies he wants another RH hitter. Now that Goldschmidt is gone, I think the other RH FAs aren't worth pursuing. A few days ago, a writer suggested Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) as a good substitute. I agree with him, and would add Ronny Mauricio (NYM). Both players are available and likely to be sent to AAA after ST because NYM and CIN have full IFs without them. Both are controllable over the next few years, partially compensating for SD's empty farm system. Both have 60-70 grade power; both will K too often. Mauricio is currently masquerading as a SH but is really a LH hitter; he has a legitimate chance to become a power hitting 2B/SS. E-S will hit homers and can play an average 1B/3B. Mr. Preller should complete his position player roster with power hitters. The potential bench players currently on the 40 man have essentially no power. The Padres can't afford to carry them.
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I like your Encarnacion-Strand idea. If Mr. Preller uses a trade to get another RH corner player, E-S or Mark Vientos (NYM) would be worth a try. Cheap homers (and SD needs more homers) and many Ks, but controllable players who would help compensate for Preller's empty farm system.
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Putting Gavin Sheets at 1B isn't much of a gamble. He'll be a little above average defensively and, hopefully, a little above average offensively. The only time the Padres gambled on 1B was when Mr. Preller, for no good reason, bizarrely bought out Eric Hosmer's average career at an All-Star price.
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Randy Vasquez has two attributes that endear him to management: He gets out there when it's his turn, and he generally gives you what he's got. Those are valuable assets. Also, Vasquez's development improves the Padres' grade on the Soto trade. So far, by trading Soto to NYY, they've gotten two useful SPs, and two seasons of Cease, who also was sometimes useful. If Brito ever pitches again, maybe he'll help too.
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Nick Castellanos, Baggage and All, Has What Padres Need
Stuart Shaffer replied to Randy Holt's topic in San Diego Padres Talk
Compare the statistics you presented for Castellanos with the same stats for Paul Goldschmidt. -
1. It would not have occurred to me to list those 3 FA SPs in a poll for the Padres. 2. Now that LA has Kyle Tucker, the Dodgers are a LH heavy lineup. Therefore, Mr. Preller and other serious GMs should be looking for more LH SPs. Try a poll using available LH pitchers.
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Another reason for Bryce Johnson to not get complacent.
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How many former Padres minor leaguers were on the list?
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Reuniting with Iglesias should be out of the question for Mr. Preller. In 2026 every position player on SD's roster must be able to hit homers -- at least 10 (if not 30) over the course of a season. If Preller wants to add an all-purpose IF to replace Iglesias he should consider FA Ramon Urias.
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Andujar is a professional hitter, can play 3 positions, hits LH pitchers well, and, importantly, he hits well vs. LA. However, as the article states, there is competition to sign him. Paul Goldschmidt hits LH pitchers as well as or better than Andujar, hits well against LA, but is older and confined to 1B/DH. Competition to sign him should be less and his contract is likely to be only one year. Either can do the job if Preller has the money.
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I don't see Kelly joining the Padres this year. However, as always, Mr. Preller probably will try to add a ML catcher. If he can afford the FA route, I'm guessing Jonah Heim (or maybe Gary Sanchez), partly because Preller is partial to TX players. If he makes trades, I can see him trading Campusano. I suspect other ML teams have a higher opinion of the young man than the Padres do.
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1. Now that Bichette has chosen NYM, they might be ready to discuss trading for a SD SP. NYM has one or two presumably ML ready SPs they might exchange for a veteran SP. If Mr. Preller talks to NYM, he should consider also asking for SP Tyler Megill who is out until 2027. NYM might trade a SP they can't use this year, and the Padres would get a reasonably priced pitcher with two more years of control. 2. BOS might now be ready to discuss a trade for a SD 2B. BOS has more ML ready SPs than NYM, and a 2B plus a RP in exchange for one of them might work out. Also, BOS has SP Tanner Houck on the IL until 2027, and they might be willing to move him, giving SD another reasonably priced SP candidate for '27/'28.
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The Padres don't have enough power in large part because the players paid to provide it don't. So, every new position player added to the roster this winter should be able to hit homers. Unfortunately, Mr. Preller already has established light hitting Freddy Fermin at C and Sung-mun Song in a U role. Preller has three more spots to fill, including the one currently held by Bryce Johnson. All three of these spots should go to players who hit for power.
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Arenado's rapid decline is what worries me about Machado and Bogaerts, starting with the coming season. Good luck to him in AZ. However, Mr. Preller should consider Nathaniel Lowe and Paul Goldschmidt for his L/R 1B/DH openings. Goldschmidt is 38, but he is still one of the best hitters of LHPs in MLB -- much better than Arenado ever has been. Plus, he'll need only a reasonably priced one year contract.
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If Mr. Preller makes a major trade, the three most likely partners are BOS, NYM, and BAL. If it's BOS, they will want a 2B. If Preller is willing to trade his 2B, he should consider adding a reliever and asking for Garrett Whitlock (currently a reliever) and Tanner Houck, who won't pitch again until 2027. Whitlock can be converted back to a SP for 2026. BOS gets its 2B and a RP to replace Whitlock, and Houck is a throw in to make it two for two. If it's NYM, they'll want a starter. If Preller wants to trade, send the starter for a ML ready young SP (NYM has one or two) and Tyler Megill, who, like Houck, is out until 2027. Trading his 2B and pricey SP would allow Preller to hire people such as Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning, and a Mr. Nieblas-type project, old friend Chris Paddack, who can still throw hard but can't currently pitch.
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Arraez is fun to watch, but homers are fun too, and the Padres need all of the homers they can get from their new hires. If Mr. Preller signs FAs for his remaining position player vacancies, he might consider Nathaniel Lowe, Paul Goldschmidt, and Willi Castro. They would be reasonably priced, have mid-range power, and Castro is the most versatile player in MLB.
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Top 25 San Diego Padres Player Assets of 2026: #25-21
Stuart Shaffer replied to Andy Johnson's topic in San Diego Padres Talk
SD's experience with Bogaerts and Pivetta illustrate how leaving Fenway and the other Al East homer havens often affect hitters and pitchers. Position players, such as Bogaerts, often go downhill, while pitchers go up. I think Mr. Preller should consider trying to replicate his Pivetta experiment with Walker Buehler. -
Signing Sung-mun Song and Jose Miranda shows that Mr. Preller understands that every position player he adds this winter must be able to hit homers to help compensate for the power deficiencies of the incumbents. Willi Castro might have been a better choice than Song for 2026 because he has ML experience and he can play SS. However, Song might outhit Castro over the succeeding years of his contract, and Song's AAV might also be lower. Preller's next decision on a new position player is a big one: Choosing a RH hitter to potentially share 1B/DH. As of today, Preller has only a brittle Miranda and an Okamoto rumor for the job. Those choices aren't good enough for an aspiring playoff contender.
