Do the Padres Have a Viable Trade Candidate in the Cubs' Carson Kelly?

[Randy Holt]

While a team in need of depth virtually across the board, the catcher spot could represent an area worth addressing for the San Diego Padres. A spot that was something of a mess last year remains concerningly uncertain ahead of 2026. 

The early 2025 iteration of the Padres relied on a combination of Elías Díaz and Martín Maldonado on any given day. Neither was particularly successful, with offensive oblivion present and defensive regression manifesting heavily in regard to the latter. Supporting an upper-tier pitching staff was a challenge, and neither was able to supplement the offense, even relative to the lower expectations of the position itself. Maldonado would eventually lose his spot in the regular season's second half upon the team's acquisition of Freddy Fermin. And it's Fermin who remains entrenched behind the plate to start 2026. 

Fermin wasn't particularly strong down the stretch, but the fact that his 64 wRC+ still represented an upgrade over either of his two predecessors speaks to how minimal their production was. With a career mark of a 90 wRC+ at the plate, it stands to reason that he'll fare better in a full season with the Padres. And even if he doesn't, he provides enough defensively as a blocker with an 88th percentile pop time that should compensate well enough. Behind him, though, is where things start to get a little bit messy. 

As of now, Luis Campusano is projected as the No. 2 catcher behind Fermin. A longtime prospect of the organization, Campusano has yet to get a genuinely extended run as an opportunity to be a full-time catcher. He caught two very brief stints at the top level last year and has regressed massively with the glove over time. Some upside still exists with the bat, but even if the team was inclined to give him an opportunity, could they still look to upgrade their catching duo and let his bat instead serve as an option at first base or designated hitter? If they were to choose such a route, there's at least one intriguing option that could be, theoretically, available in the Chicago Cubs' Carson Kelly. 

Kelly is coming off something of a career year with the Cubs, posting an offensive output that was at or near his career high just about everywhere you look. He parlayed a strong approach on breaking and off-speed pitches with improved contact skills to post a .179 ISO and 115 wRC+, the former of which was his best since 2019 and the latter serving as easily the highest of his time in the big leagues. 

Among the 34 catchers with at least 300 plate appearances to their name last year, Kelly's wRC+ ranked ninth. His ISO sat 14th, as did his total value reflected in fWAR (2.6). That latter number was also the highest of Kelly's career. Which makes sense when you start to factor in his defense, which is fairly similar to Fermin's. 

Kelly doesn't possess the pop time of Fermin (51st percentile), but he was still in the 90th in caught stealing above average and in the 91st in blocks above average. His framing was in the same neighborhood as the Padres' current backstop, but it's rare that you get a catcher that excels in each facet of the position. Having two catchers who are adept at blocking and controlling the run game while being at least within striking distance of "average" on the framing side would greatly support a pitching staff that will need every bit of it.

Of course, Kelly being a viable target assumes that the Cubs would even be willing to move him. He's in something of a timeshare with Miguel Amaya, who looked to be on the come up in each of 2024 and 2025 before the latter was derailed by injuries. Even if the two split duties, the assumption is that Kelly's 2025 — from both a health and performance standpoint — would be a springboard toward the majority of duties in the upcoming year. That doesn't mean he's not available, though. 

A free agent after the year, Kelly's contract carries an AAV of $5.75 million. With the Cubs now up against the luxury tax threshold following the addition of Alex Bregman, could they deal from an area of stability in order to give themselves a little bit of breathing room against that marker? It's a bit tough to envision given the lack of options behind Kelly and Amaya and their apparent reluctance to allow top hitting prospect Moisés Ballesteros to get in work at the position. Nevertheless, the fact that they have two starting-caliber options, on paper, could allow them to feel more comfortable in such an endeavor. 

The Padres' side of it is easy. They don't feel comfortable allowing Luis Campusano to serve as a full-time backup. They'd rather him work in as a bench bat, first baseman, or designated hitter before doing so as a catcher. They get a solid option to partner with Freddy Fermin who offers more offensive upside and a similar skill set behind the plate. It's a way to fortify the position while deploying Campusano's best asset (his bat) in areas where it's not a detriment. 

It's a relatively murky picture to really make clear given the absence of an indication that Kelly is truly available. But with so few intriguing options on the free-agent market and the same lack of clarity permeating throughout the rest of the trade winds (to say nothing of the fact that the Jed Hoyer and the Cubs have awoken from what was a mid-winter slumber), it's an option that could be on the table if A.J. Preller gets aggressive enough.

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[Stuart Shaffer]

I don't see Kelly joining the Padres this year.  However, as always, Mr. Preller probably will try to add a ML catcher.  If he can afford the FA route, I'm guessing Jonah Heim (or maybe Gary Sanchez), partly because Preller is partial to TX players.  If he makes trades, I can see him trading Campusano.  I suspect other ML teams have a higher opinion of the young man than the Padres do.