Which Name-Checked Free Agent Pitcher is Best Fit for San Diego Padres?

[Randy Holt]

Earlier this week, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal name-checked three free agent pitchers that the San Diego Padres could be pursuing at this late stage of the offseason: Justin Verlander, Lucas Giolito, and old friend Nick Martinez. 

The rationale was primarily due to the cost, as each of them would require in the neighborhood of between $8 million and $12 million in average annual value (according to Rosenthal, at least). When you factor in that each could likely be had on a short-term contract, the appeal starts to gain some clarity. It certainly lends itself to a more realistic outcome than, say, a trade for Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta ever was.

As such, let's talk about those three names in Verlander, Giolito, and Martinez. Each has a track record of success, but none of them are without questions. It's at least partially those questions that leaves them looking for a new team as the calendar prepares to flip over to February, with pitchers and catchers just a few weeks away from reporting to team sites. Nevertheless, there's a good deal of intrigue present with all three. Assuming all things are equal in the contract for the purpose of this exercise, which veteran pitcher is the best fit for the 2026 Padres? 

Justin Verlander

An ageless wonder, the fact that Verlander will turn 43 before the start of the season hasn't slowed him down much. Across 29 starts with the San Francisco Giants last year, Verlander pitched to an identical ERA and FIP, at 3.85. His fastball still checks in at 93.9 MPH on average, and while his strikeout and walk numbers have come down from his peak, he still limits hard contact at a high level. His 37.0 percent hard-hit rate allowed finished in the 78th percentile last year.

The issue with Verlander is obviously the age and recent injury history. He averaged 5 2/3 innings per start last year, but experienced a pectoral issue in May that resulted in a stint on the injured list. Prior to that, he battled neck and shoulder woes in 2024. It's unreasonable to expect him to handle a full season at this stage, even if the performance is still there when he does. If the Padres feel comfortable about their depth, though, it becomes a very easy deal to justify. Especially when you factor in the unquantifiable experience that he'd bring to the rest of the staff.

Lucas Giolito

Giolito's situation isn't all that dissimilar from that of Verlander, albeit without the Hall of Fame credentials and an even more recent injury history. Perhaps, in that case, it's quite different. When the performance is intact, he's flashed a level of dominance at time throughout his career. The issue is sustaining it. Giolito hasn't been the same pitcher since he bookended 2020 with a 5.2 fWAR in 2019 and a 4.1 in 2021 with the Chicago White Sox. But in 2025, he proved there's at least something left in the tank. 

Starting the season late after an internal brace procedure wiped out his 2024 season, Giolito pitched to a 3.41 ERA and a career-best 9.3 percent home run rate. The issue is that his strikeout rate plummeted from previous years (19.7 percent) and his 9.1 percent walk rate was just 30th percentile. Even the homer rate looks less appealing when you consider the fact that he pitched his home games at Fenway Park, which ranked 22nd in the league for home runs according to Statcast's Park Factors. His numbers also got progressively worse across the board as the season wore on.

Nick Martinez

After a pair of seasons serving as a swingman in San Diego, Martinez has spent the last two pitching for the Cincinnati Reds. His role there was much the same, as he made 42 appearances in 2024 (16 starts) and 40 appearances in 2025 (26 starts). The latter of the two represented his highest volume of starts in a season at the major-league level. The results were promising, too. 

Martinez doesn't offer the strikeout upside of Verlander or even what we've seen at Giolito's heights. But his 2025 campaign was indicative of the skill set he could provide the Padres with. Martinez pitched to a walk rate of just 6.1 percent (84th percentile) and was very adept at avoiding quality contact. He avoided barrels (6.9 percent) and posted an opposing hard-hit rate that fell in the 90th percentile (34.5 percent). That so much of his work came as a starter provided some optimism that he could handle bulk in a way that might've been questioned in years prior. 

The Verdict

Consider where things stand for the Padres' current starting group. Nick Pivetta and Michael King are the only Opening Day locks. Joe Musgrove should return not long after. Beyond that, it's a collection of Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron, Kyle Hart, Sean Boyle, and non-roster invitee Triston McKenzie. What the Padres need more than anything is stability. When you factor in Verlander's age and Giolito's shaky performance and own injury history in recent memory, Martinez may actually represent the most stable choice of the three, though he may be the most expensive after playing last year on the qualifying offer.

Ultimately, though, it'd be hard to turn away any of the three given the upside they bring and the team's lack of mid-rotation certainty.

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[Stuart Shaffer]

1.  It would not have occurred to me to list those 3 FA SPs in a poll for the Padres.  2. Now that LA has Kyle Tucker, the Dodgers are a LH heavy lineup.  Therefore, Mr. Preller and other serious GMs should be looking for more LH SPs.  Try a poll using available LH pitchers.