Three Questions the Padres Must Answer Before 2026 Opening Day

[Steve Drumwright]

There are precious few days left before the San Diego Padres depart sunny Arizona and return home to sunny SoCal to begin the 2026 season.

But as the clock ticks down toward Opening Day on March 26 vs. Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers, there are still some key items to figure out regarding who will be on the Opening Day roster. Some are more simple, like which players start the season on the injured list, and others will come to choosing the right player for the right role.

Let's take a look at the top three questions remaining:

1. Who fills out the Padres' starting rotation?

We know that right-handers Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Randy Vasquez are in the rotation barring anything unforeseen in their final Cactus League outings.

That leaves two spots. Or is it one? An interesting wrinkle in this decision is that the Padres have two days off in the first eight days of the regular season. That means the Friars don't need a fifth starter until the second Sunday of the season, April 5 on the road against the Boston Red Sox. There are different ways for the Friars to approach this; they could ho with a traditional five-man rotation and give the starters a little extra rest to begin the season, which is not a bad idea, or go with four starters and a nine-man bullpen.

There are two primary candidates for this: right-handers Walker Buehler and German Marquez. Buehler is not currently on the 40-man roster after signing a minor-league deal with an opt-out before Opening Day if not on the MLB roster. Buehler does get a $1.5 million contract if added to the Padres' roster. Marquez signed a major-league deal for one year and $1.75 million.

Buehler has been the better of the two thus far in spring, with a 3.09 ERA in three Cactus League games, walking four and striking out 13 in 11⅔ innings. Marquez hasn't been as sharp, with a 9.26 ERA in four appearances, with five walks and 15 strikeouts, nine coming in his five-inning start Tuesday.

With Pivetta having dealt with some arm fatigue and skipping a spring start (he did return last weekend), this feels like a five-man rotation situation, with Buehler and Marquez taking those Nos. 4 and 5 slots.

2. What does the Friars' bullpen look like?

First-year manager Craig Stammen, himself a former MLB reliever, has enjoyed using the term "bridge" when referring to some Friars bullpen candidates this spring. That could be key when trying to figure out who will be among the eight relievers selected for Opening Day.

The Friars boasted one of the best bullpens in all of MLB last season and that doesn't figure to change much despite losing closer Robert Suarez to Atlanta via free agency. That, in large part, is due to having added arguably the top reliever in baseball at the trade deadline in right-hander Mason Miller.

Adrian Morejon and Wandy Peralta are the locked-in left-handers, while right-handers Jeremiah Estrada, David Morgan and Bradgley Rodriguez are the top right-handers.

The other two spots depend on the health of left-hander Yuki Matsui, who has been throwing after sustaining an oblique injury in camp. He probably needs two solid Cactus League appearances to make the Opening Day roster. Left-hander JP Sears, who had been a candidate for the rotation, could instead be a bullpen option or sent to Triple-A El Paso for rotation depth. The latter seems the better choice for the team.

With left-hander Kyle Hart and right-hander Logan Gillaspie showing good signs in camp and fulfilling the bridge role they likely take the last two bullpen spots thanks to their ability to cover multiple innings. Left-hander Jackson Wolf is another bridge option, but was reassigned to minor-league camp earlier this week.

3. Where does Craig Stammen's bench stand?

The Padres' starting lineup pretty much returned intact, with the only true subtraction being Luis Arraez.

Catcher: Freddy Fermin. First base: Nick Castellanos. Second base: Jake Cronenworth. Third base: Manny Machado. Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts. Left field: Ramon Laureano. Center field: Jackson Merrill. Right field: Fernando Tatis Jr. Designated hitter: Gavin Sheets.

With four bench spots, one goes to Luis Campusano as the backup catcher. Infielder Sung Mun Song's second oblique injury likely means he will begin the season on the injured list, although he has been swinging in recent days. Outfielder-infielder Miguel Andujar has a spot secured. Needing a backup outfielder who can play center gives Bryce Johnson a spot, at least to begin the season. That leaves just one remaining. Ty France, in camp on a minor-league contract, has been good this spring, with the 2025 AL Gold Glove first baseman also playing second, third and left field. He is back after beginning his MLB career in 2019 with the Friars and could be the ultimate beneficiary of Song's lingering oblique troubles.

Bonus: Who will enter MLB Opening Day on the injured list?

It is never fun to be on the injured list, especially for Opening Day. Right-handed reliever Bryan Hoeing is already on the 15-day IL and is scheduled to have season-ending surgery on his right flexor tendon. He will eventually be transferred to the 60-day IL, opening up a 40-man roster spot (possibly for France or Buehler).

Right-hander Joe Musgrove will also begin the season on the 15-day IL, as he still is on the comeback path from Tommy John surgery. Another starter, right-hander Griffin Canning, is still working his way back from a ruptured left Achilles. Both could return in mid- to late April if things go well. Right-handed starter Matt Waldron is in more of a sticky situation; he had hemorrhoid surgery in camp and has been working his way back on the mound and made his Cactus League debut with two innings Tuesday. With no minor-league options remaining, going on the 15-day IL with a possible rehab assignment will give the Padres an outlet to keep him around until they need him.

Right-hander Jason Adam, a key member of the bullpen, has been on track to be ready for Opening Day following a ruptured left quad on Sept. 1 that required surgery. The Padres might take a cautious rout with his return with an IL placement. Matsui's oblique injury could be an excuse to put him on the 15-day IL and give the injury more time to heal. Right-handed reliever Ty Adcock made his Cactus League debut Monday following an oblique injury and was optioned to Triple-A on Tuesday.

The same story applies to Song. The former Korea Baseball Organization star is likely to go on the 10-day IL considering he has had the same injury twice since the start of the calendar year. Infielder Will Wagner is yet another player with an oblique injury and he is likely to begin the season on the 10-day IL before heading to Triple-A.

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