Walker Buehler's 2026 Padres Debut Looked Concerningly Like 2025

[Brandon Glick]

Walker Buehler was an unmitigated disaster with the Boston Red Sox in 2025. He signed with them after a strong postseason run the year prior with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he never rediscovered the form that made him a perennial All-Star and Cy Young candidate earlier in his career. Here's what I had to say about the right-hander when he was released by the Red Sox last August:

"Buehler isn't the same pitcher who hurled the final out of the 2024 World Series, and he certainly isn't the same pitcher who finished top-10 in NL Cy Young voting in 2019 and 2021. In 112 1/3 frames this year, he's surrendered a 5.45 ERA that actually looks manageable compared to his 5.88 FIP. He's allowing more than a hit per inning and his walk rate has spiked to 10.8%, hence his grotesque 1.56 WHIP. Add it all up, and he's been a negative contributor for the Red Sox this season, no matter who you ask (-0.7 fWAR, -0.9 bWAR)."

He then salvaged his season (and possibly his career) in a late-season cameo with the Philadelphia Phillies, allowing just one run across 13 2/3 innings. The stuff wasn't much better, nor were his peripherals, but the raw results impressed the San Diego Padres enough to give him a minor-league deal with an invite to camp.

Spring training didn't go terribly well, either -- Buehler recorded a 6.60 ERA and 6.39 FIP while allowing 21 hits in 15 innings -- but a setback in Joe Musgrove's timeline and a general lack of pitching depth earned him a spot in the Friars' rotation by default. Thus, he made his Padres debut in the fourth game of the 2026 regular season against a winless San Francisco Giants team. And, as anyone who watched him pitch last year could have predicted, Buehler stumbled.

There were some highlights in the start. About 70% of the contact he generated was on the ground, which would be downright elite if it held up over a full season. Buehler also wasn't shy about leaning into his diverse arsenal, flashing all seven of his pitches at various points. The echoes of a once-great starter reverberated throughout the outing.

But the worst parts of Buehler reared their ugly heads far more often. Batters not only made loud contact, but they made a lot of it; they only whiffed on about one-fourth of his offerings while chasing outside the zone at the same rate. As you'd expect, then, the veteran right-hander only managed to secure three strikeouts in four innings pitched, surrendering three runs on five hits and two walks along the way.

His locations were generally okay, but they were hardly consistent. His heat maps look like a pitcher who didn't have a firm plan of attack heading into the start.

*Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Likewise, when he did miss, batters made him pay. Buehler no longer has the raw stuff to get away with mistakes, which is how Harrison Bader hunted down his knuckle curve and hit it 408 feet (107.3 mph).

It's just one start's worth of data, so don't read too much into any of the noise just yet. Buehler can still turn things around, particularly if he leans into an arsenal clearly designed to generate groundballs rather than whiffs.

But this was not the proof of concept he or the Padres needed to see. With Joe Musgrove set to return at some point in the near future and Griffin Canning soon to follow, Buehler's lease in this rotation will not be long, especially if Germán Márquez can out-pitch him in the early going. Beggars can hardly ever be choosers, but the version of Buehler we just saw isn't capable of handling a starter's workload for a playoff contender.

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