Will the Real Nick Pivetta Please Stand Up?

[Andy Johnson]

If you were feeling concerned after Nick Pivetta's Opening Day start, you were not alone. Watching him allow six earned runs in three innings in his first outing of the season was not fun, creaking the door back open for questions about his long-term ability to be an ace.

Pivetta had never been that caliber of pitcher until 2025, when he transformed himself from a solid back-end starter into a legitimate No. 1 option in the postseason. After a poor outing to start 2026, the one-year wonder allegations began. 

However, Pivetta cleaned things up in his second start of the season, tossing five shutout innings and striking out eight. He looked much more comfortable on the mound and calmed the fears that he would not be the same pitcher in 2026. 

So, which version of Pivetta are the Padres going to get going forward? Let's break down his first two starts to find some clues.

Padres Breakdown: Nick Pivetta's First Two Starts of 2026

Start 1: 

The Tigers hit very well off of Pivetta, with a .438 batting average in three innings. He allowed seven hits and issued three walks. Three of those hits came against the fastball, two against cutters, one against a curveball, and one against the sweeper. Detroit's average exit velocity against Pivetta was 87.6 MPH. 

Detroit did outperform its expected stats against Pivetta, for what it's worth; according to Baseball Savant, their xBA was nearly 100 points lower at .346. Still not great, but better than the .438 average he allowed. 

Start 2: 

Against the Giants, Pivetta looked like a different pitcher. He allowed just one hit, a single to his former teammate Luis Arraez. The Giants had a batting average of .063 and an xBA of .066, which backs up the idea that Pivetta was in command all game. San Francisco's average exit velocity was 85 MPH, significantly lower than what the Tigers produced. 

Pitch usage: 

One thing worth noting is that Pivetta's pitch usage has changed significantly in 2026. He's throwing his fastball more than he ever has. Last year, he threw his fastball on 47% of pitches, but in 2026, that has jumped to 59%. His fastball velocity has also improved to 94.3 MPH, up from 93.8 MPH last year. That leap in velocity is noteworthy, but is that why he is throwing his fastball more? 

With Pivetta throwing so many more fastballs, he's throwing all of his other pitches less. This all could just be due to it being early in the season — it's not unreasonable to suggest that Pivetta is still fine-tuning his approach and has become reliant on his favorite pitch while doing so. There might not be a strategic approach that is causing him to throw more fastballs and fewer breaking balls. 

Or, there might be. 

In 2025, opponents hit .216 off of Pivetta's curveball, the highest of any of his pitches. Batters actually had an xBA of .279 against his curve. His curveball had a 16% whiff percentage, significantly lower than his fastball and sweeper. Perhaps the team weened him off the curve, fearing a regression to the mean.

But why reduce the sweeper usage? Pivetta's sweeper produced an xBA of .177, making it Pivetta's best pitch. It produced matching wOBA and xwOBA figures (.212). The sweeper also had the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches, at 37.5%. If anything, Pivetta should probably be throwing his sweeper more often, not less. 

His cutter, meanwhile, got good results in 2025, but the expected stats told a different story. His cutter held opponents to a .176 average and .244 wOBA, but the xBA was .264, and the xWOBA was .332, nearly 100 points higher than the actual result. It's clearly not an offering he can build his arsenal around.

Pivetta's fastball might be his best pitch, but increasing his fastball at the expense of his sweeper probably won't yield the ideal results. Half the hits he's allowed this year have been off the fastball.

Verdict

It's too early to tell if any of this means anything for Pivetta, but at this point, the Padres should probably expect a slightly worse version of the guy who led their rotation in 2025. He's not going to carry a 6.75 ERA for the rest of the year, but it probably won't be below 3.00. 

Pivetta's increased usage of fastballs could be due to getting poor results from his curveball and cutter last year. He's still doing a good job limiting hard contact, and he's still getting batters to chase. It's true that he probably benefited from some luck in 2025, but he should still be a reliable starter in 2026, even if he's not the no-questions-asked ace that he was last year.

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