Lineup Inconsistency: The Numbers Behind Craig Stammen's Unceasing Tinkering With Padres' Batting Order

[Steve Drumwright]

Ever since it was mentioned that right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. might not be hitting leadoff for the San Diego Padres this season and that first-year manager Craig Stammen was going to tinker with the top half of his lineup, conversations have stirred from barstools and coffee shops in La Jolla to those down in Chula Vista.

The question being asked: What is the best lineup for the Friars?

While the experiment in spring training was interrupted by the World Baseball Classic, Stammen and the Padres have had two weeks of the regular season to work it out on the fly. And although days off, slumps, hot streaks and injuries will certainly play a role, there are signs of stability forming in the top five spots, even with the offense still trying to find some consistency.

For now.

In the first 12 games of the season, the top five has had six combinations involving eight players. Before Wednesday, the only players to appear in the top five in every game are ones you would expect: Tatis and third baseman Manny Machado. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts has done so in all but one game. Machado was given his first day off in the series finale against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The others to make appearances are left fielder Ramon Laureano, center fielder Jackson Merrill, second baseman Jake Cronenworth, designated hitter Miguel Andujar and first baseman Gavin Sheets.

The evolution has been interesting to watch. It felt like Stammen was the exclusive voice putting together the first five lineups. Then, in the sixth game, the series finale vs. the San Francisco Giants, Stammen credited bench coach Randy Knorr with the batting order that produced a 7-1 win. Since then, Stammen's comments have indicated a more collaborative process.

There have been two constants throughout: Tatis has hit either first or second, and Machado third or fourth in every game he has appeared. Those are the no-brainers. Who fits in around them is where the real experimentation has happened.

Prior to the series against the Colorado Rockies, Laureano started the last four games in the leadoff spot, followed by Tatis, Merrill and Machado. This feels like the regular top five for the time being. Sheets replaced Machado in the cleanup spot Wednesday, with Andujar getting the start at third and batting sixth. Bogaerts has hit fifth in three of those four contests, with Andujar holding down the fort in the other. Where is Cronenworth? After leading off in three straight games on the opening homestand, the veteran infielder has been eighth or ninth in the last six games, the same spots he was in for the very first two games of the season. That is more because Cronenworth can be more effective at getting on base for the top of the order once the lineup flips.

How the first five aligns also doesn't seem to matter whether there is a right-hander or left-hander on the mound to start the game. The Padres have faced four left-handed starters, with Tatis leading off three times and Laureano the other. Merrill and Cronenworth were the only left-handed hitters in the group of eight to bat in the top five before Sheets made his initial appearance Wednesday. Merrill has been in the middle of some rallies by the Friars thus far, while Cronenworth has yet to get rolling.

In fact, no one in the Padres' lineup has been rolling, not even in the bottom half. Still, Machado said as recently as Tuesday that he liked the at-bats the Friars were having even if they didn't produce much.

That could be the reason why Laureano has emerged as the leadoff hitter for four straight games. Tatis told Stammen in the offseason that he wasn't fond of the leadoff spot, yet that is where the manager had the superstar in his first two lineups. Tatis has hit seven times in the No. 2 spot, which seems to be where he will settle as the Friars try to get more run production out of their most talented position player.

Merrill has split his time fairly evenly between third (six) and fourth (five), with Machado being in the cleanup spot in six times and No. 3 the other five. All of that has pushed Bogaerts from the No. 2 slot, where he was the first two games of the year and four times overall, down to fifth for seven games. The only time Bogaerts didn't hit in the top five was when he hit sixth against Boston Red Sox left-hander Ranger Suarez with Andujar, who has a strong track record against southpaws, in the No. 5 slot.

One other interesting piece of the lineup construction has been the usage of Nick Castellanos. The first baseman-outfielder picked up after he was released by the Philadelphia Phillies in spring training has started just five of the first 11 games. Three of those have come as the designated hitter, while he made his first career start at first base and his first since 2022 in left field. He also has come off the bench as a pinch-hitter in three games. Castellanos' starts have come in spurts, not in the lineup for the first two games, then in for three straight, benched for two more, then another two starts in a row before going back to the bench.

The series opener against the Rockies also marked the 13th lineup combination in as many games, so expect this long-running experiment to continue deep into the dog days of summer.

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