Lucas Giolito Is the Best Answer the Padres Could Have Come Up With

[Randy Holt]

The San Diego Padres made perhaps the only noteworthy transaction remaining in early 2026 (non-trade division) in agreeing to a one-year deal with starting pitcher Lucas Giolito on Wednesday. In a vacuum, such a deal should be a welcome addition. There's also reality to consider, however. 

The Padres began the season with something of a patchwork rotation that has only been further depleted by the absence of Nick Pivetta and repeated setbacks in Joe Musgrove's return from Tommy John surgery. They'd already been hoping for rebounds from Germán Márquez and Walker Buehler and received mixed results from each. Matt Waldron was called back into service prior to last weekend. Griffin Canning remains on rehab assignment ahead of what will be an eventual debut at some point in the near future. With so much abstract in the picture, the fact that Giolito is a solid veteran with a track record that reads even more so should help to provide something a little more certain. 

At the same time, certain factors leave one to wonder where the realistic expectations fall. 

It's been a while since Giolito was at his height. He bookended the COVID year of 2020 with exceptional seasons in 2019 (5.2 fWAR) and 2021 (4.0 fWAR). He struggled in 2022, pitched for three teams in 2023, and had a 2024 that was entirely lost to injury. There was something of a rebound across 26 starts with the Boston Red Sox last year (2.0 fWAR), but the strikeouts were down, the walks were up, and he didn't pitch in the postseason because of an elbow issue. 

As such, any optimism over Giolito's addition to the mix is going to come on paper. When he's at his best, he's able to deploy his four-seam-slider-change combination to run up a fair bit of strikeouts (24.6 percent for his career). He can also eat innings effectively, averaging 5.6 innings per start in each of his last two seasons. In general then, you're looking at an arm that isn't exactly going to mow down opposing hitters, but can work efficiently enough to keep you in games and work deep enough into them. 

That's what the projection models are considering, too. Steamer, for example, has him at a 4.68 ERA, 20.6 K%, and 9.6 BB%. ZiPs is only slightly better at a 4.58 ERA, the same strikeout rate, and an 8.9 percent walk rate. Back in 2021, Giolito had two pitches (slider and change-up) that ranked above average by Stuff+. Now, it's only the change-up. The name of the game is stability, though. If Giolito can provide the Friars with that, then the signing is worthwhile regardless how the stat sheet shakes out.

As an innings-eater, Giolito's presence alone forced ZiPS' playoff projections to increase for San Diego by 10 percent in the wake of signing the veteran. That's easily more than any other team with which he could have signed, with the Chicago Cubs' 8.1 percent increase falling in second. Even if he's not going to bring the swing-and-miss upside he was flashing on the South Side of Chicago a handful of years ago, he should be able to help fortify a unit that sits in the bottom half of the league in innings pitched by their starting pitchers (and sits among the league's worst in that regard over the past week). 

Reality for the Padres is not knowing what the timeline looks like for Pivetta or Musgrove. Michael King doesn't have the cleanest of histories in his own right, and each of Márquez and Buehler have been start-to-start in their performance. Canning is a total wild card. So, while the rotation has probably performed better than expected, there's too much uncertainty lurking to let a pitcher who can raise the floor of the group sign elsewhere. Especially at an entirely reasonable price point.

Giolito, even with a decline in his performance over the last handful of seasons, offers the team's best chance at stability at this early stage of the season. That's why you make a signing like this. You're not looking for the upside. You're in it for the innings and relatively consistent performance, considering the bullpen you can roll out as his reinforcements. Even the most grounded-in-reality type of thinker can understand the benefit of pursuing that kind of stability.

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