Griffin Canning's Perfectly Adequate First Start Could Be Just What Padres Need

[Randy Holt]

There was a time when a first start of the season coming against the Chicago White Sox would've represented as soft a landing as possible. But with the San Diego Padres having dropped the first two of three against a Sox team that has been surging over the past week, Griffin Canning didn't quite get the calm welcome of a bad team standing opposed to him. Nevertheless, he managed. 

Sunday afternoon was Canning's first start in a Padres uniform after signing a one-year deal late in the offseason. After working through five rehab starts following last year's Achilles injury, it was an opportunity for the team to get someone else in the mix given the struggles of the Walker Buehler, Germán Márquez, Matt Waldron contingent in the latter portion of the starting five. If Canning's first start was any indication, some of that trio could be on the outs in fairly short order. 

Canning worked five innings (73 pitches), allowing three hits and three walks while striking out seven. He allowed one run on a Drew Romo solo homer, but did enough to leave with the lead (which was later surrendered by Adrian Morejon). 

Craig Stammen was intentional with how he used the deployed the newest Friars starter, limiting both his pitch count and his amount of turns through the order. Canning, for his money, was smart about usage, too. The changeup was his most frequently used pitched of the afternoon (40 percent) with the four-seam following it up at 34 percent (his slider/sweeper comprised the rest of his distribution). The first time through the order, though, Canning was heavy on the four-seamer (48 percent) before pivoting to the off-speed (47 percent) & breaking (26 percent) pitches more the second time through. 

Here is how things broke down for Canning in the start: 

The stuff played, to be sure. Canning was able to generate consistent whiffs with all three pitches and generated a fair bit of chase with the changeup and slider. The former was particularly effective given the volume of its usage and the raw number of whiffs he was able to garner with it. The location breakdown also offered reason for optimism surrounding his presence in the rotation: 

The fastball worked up, the changeup primarily worked down, and the slider moved around horizontally. For a starting pitcher making his first start of the season against a team on a bit of a run, it's not a bad looking distribution. If this is the version of Canning that the Padres are going to get moving forward, then he's absolutely someone who can offer the stability that the back end of the rotation has lacked. 

As easy as it may be to remember Canning as the starter who never realized his potential with the Los Angeles Angels, it's also easy to forget that he was beginning to break out with the New York Mets in 2025. In 16 starts, he'd posted a 3.77 ERA, a solid whiff rate, and an elite groundball rate. If he's going to simplify the arsenal so that his changeup and slider — pitches which have graded out as his best in his career by Stuff+ — are his primary offerings to play off the four-seam, then there's reason to think he could build on that small sample from Queens. 

At the same time, it's only one start. The Padres have had a tough time stabilizing their rotation with the volume approach. With Canning now in the mix and Lucas Giolito on the way, the former's first start is as good a reason as any in recent weeks for some optimism on that front.

View full article