Randy Vásquez's Command Woes Have Taken On A New Form

[Randy Holt]

It was just two months ago that Randy Vásquez was one of the more exciting stories of the 2026 San Diego Padres. The former depth starter with command issues parlayed a strong spring into a firm gig in the rotation to start the year, with numbers in March & April that supported his role. As the calendar prepares to flip over to July, however, we're looking at some familiar issues manifesting for Vásquez in all new ways.

The old book on the right-hander was that he is a more contact-oriented pitcher who needed to harness a deep mix of pitches to find success sans big strikeout numbers. The harnessing itself proved to be an issue in 2025 in particular, as he only struck out 13.7 percent of hitters against a 9.1 percent walk rate. 

His offseason work, however, proved fruitful, as he showed up to spring training with an uptick in velocity and compounded that with improved command in the season's first month. His strikeout rate sat way up at 24.8 percent in March & April with an 8.0 percent walk rate. He featured a 2.94 ERA that paired with a 3.40 FIP to indicate a pitcher demonstrating marked improvement rather than getting away with something. 

Then, the regression monster came for him in May. In the month that followed the strong start, Vásquez featured an ERA that jumped up to 3.71. That's a survivable figure in itself, but more worrisome was the fact that the FIP leapt to 5.35 while the strikeout rate cratered at just 11.6 percent. He managed to survive by a barrel rate that dropped between the two months and a walk rate of just 5.4 percent, but concerns certainly emerged for a player with little margin for error within his skill set and track record. 

Those worries have been further realized here in June. Through his first 17 innings and change of the month, Vásquez has an ERA up at 7.27. His strikeout rate is back up a touch but still sits at only 14.1 percent while the walk rate has climbed back up to 9.4 percent. The peak of those concerns came last Friday when Vásquez, who was spotted a 5-0 lead in the first inning, allowed eight hits and three walks through just 3.1 innings of work. 

Considering the aforementioned lack of a margin for error, it's difficult to pinpoint a central issue causing Vásquez's regression over the span of two months. His command has been fine in the sense that he's largely continued to mitigate walks even as he's begun to struggle. His case may start at the concept of a pitcher with three different types of fastballs (four-seam, cutter, sinker) and two different types of breaking pitch (curve & sweeper) struggling to solidify his usage. 

On the fastball side, the four-seam has increased steadily, the cutter has dropped quite a bit, and the sinker has varied. As far as his breaking stuff goes, he's ditched the more standard curve in favor of the sweeper. The reasoning for such a shift over these three months is unclear, but there are some other trends present beyond (and related to) the usage itself. 

For one, Vásquez is getting fewer hitters to chase. The breaking pitches were the highest source of chase in April. In May, hitters began chasing them less frequently and making hard contact at a higher clip, so Vásquez began relying on the four-seam and sinker more often. The latter represented his highest source of chase that month. In June, though, hitters have started to lay off the sinker and the cutter when they're thrown outside the zone, so he's pivoted back to the sweeper while continuing to rely on the four-seamer. The results on contact have varied, but it's all a bit muddled. If anything, there's a reactionary component to Vásquez that has mixed up his usage and pinned down his ability to remain consistent. 

That's not to say that usage in itself is the central issue, even if its messy nature could be yielding some of the declining results we're witnessing. There could be an issue with the stuff itself, as only the four-seam has resulted in a positive run value for Vásquez, and only the four-seamer (105) & sweeper (also 105) are above average in their effect by Stuff+. Or perhaps it's just a matter of the command needing continued refinement in order to find more sustained success. A pitcher in command of his arsenal would be able to locate not only for the called strikes we all love, but induce the chases he needs to avoid quality contact. Even if he's not walking people at as high a clip during this regression, the other elements speak to a pitcher not entirely in command.

Whatever the issue may actually be, it's becoming increasingly clear that the Padres have a bit of a Randy Vásquez issue on their hands. For a rotation in as much peril as the Friars' is, both Vásquez and Michael King are the only members of the starting five entrenched in their role for the foreseeable future. Given those stakes, it's clear that the former needs to get back to his early season ways sooner rather than later.

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