Padres System Analysis: How Industry Experts Rank San Diego's Internal Prospect Hierarchy

[Steve Drumwright]

Editor's note: Padres Mission spoke with two industry experts about the state of the San Diego Padres' minor-league system, what they have done right, what they have done wrong, and how they got to this state. This is the third of four articles on the subject.

Part 1: Trades Have Depleted Majority of San Diego's Prospect Capital
Part 2: Despite Farm Ranking, Padres Are Good At Acquiring Talent

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With the San Diego Padres sitting at the bottom of the team prospect rankings, that means finding the top prospects in a system like this can sometimes be a difficult task. The good news is that there is a clear-cut No. 1 prospect in Ethan Salas.

After that? You get a mixed bag, including who we and our readers at Padres Mission ranked in our Top 20.

“You look at (the system) and you're like, ‘Are there 20 prospects here I would get excited about? No, are there six or seven? Yes,’” said Sam Dykstra, a senior reporter at MLB Pipeline. “And then they end up trading four of those and getting a key piece to make a postseason run. Now, that hasn't resulted in a pennant or a trophy or anything really substantive, but they're the ones who could pull off, were willing to pull off the Mason Miller trade last year.”

Who does Dykstra have in his personal top five?

“My top five right now, it's interesting,” Dykstra said. “We (at MLB Pipeline) have Ethan Salas, Kruz Schoolcraft, Miguel Mendez, Kash Mayfield and Jorge Quintana as the top five right now. ... (Former Top 100 prospect Schoolcraft is) a long-term project. I think there's a debate between him and Mayfield at two and Mendez, I still really like the fastball. I think it's major-league-quality stuff. So I think it's a clear one, you can put Schoolcraft, Mendez, Mayfield in any order, two through four. And then, at No. 5, I know (center fielder Ryan) Wideman's been really good this year. I'm tempted to go Tucker Musgrove, which is more aggressive than I would like for a relief prospect. I get that, but I'm pretty convinced that that (pitch) mix and now that he's healthy ... that fastball is really going to work well. The carry is really good, the velocity is really good. He's going to get important major-league outs for some team, whether that's the Padres, whether that's another team, I don't know.”

Keith Law of The Athletic, on the other hand, was really high on another catcher the Padres have.

“Salas one, (Ty) Harvey two and Schoolcraft three and then it starts to get kind of dicey,” Law said. “I mean, I know everybody wants to put Mayfield four, but I have not had good reports on him at all this year. The stuff is down, it's a little concerning. It can come back. That happened with (ex-Padres prospect Robby) Snelling actually. Snelling had a period where his stuff was also down. ... I had Miguel Mendez fourth before the season. I probably have him fourth now over Mayfield. You know, I'm trying to like mentally recalibrate the list as we're talking too. (Shortstop) Jorge Quintana, he's having a lousy season, but he's also 19 and at Low-A. He could be in short-season ball. I'm not giving up on him, but I don't see a reason to elevate him over Mayfield at this point. I guess that's kind of where I come down, I would say, Mayfield this fifth. It's a little bit by default.”

The 19-year-old Harvey was the Padres’ fifth-round draft choice a year ago out of Inspiration Academy in Florida and is currently on the injured list with a fractured left hand. In 15 games, Harvey has a .340/.466/.447 slash line with no homers, six RBIs and five stolen bases.

Harvey was also included in Baseball America’s top five. That outlet has, in order, Salas, Mayfield, Schoolcraft, Harvey and Wideman as the current cream of the crop. Of course, now that the 2026 MLB Draft is complete, a few new names (like first-rounder Coleman Borthwick) should be competing for this distinction soon.

As for under-the-radar prospects from a national point of view, Dykstra was keen on outfielders Braedon Karpathios and Alex McCoy and right-handed starter Winyer Chourio and Bryan Balzer. He also mentioned outfielder Kale Fountain, who is out for the season following shoulder surgery, as someone to watch once he returns to action.

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