Making Sense of Walker Buehler's Confusing First Half with Padres

[Cory Sparks]

Walker Buehler is having a confounding season on the mound, and if the San Diego Padres want to salvage any chance at a playoff run down the stretch, he’s going to have to figure out how to be more consistnet. Fresh off of a brief stint where he flashed signs of his old self in 2025, the veteran right-handed pitcher has struggled mightily. Let’s break down what’s going wrong, and more importantly, if this is fixable. 

Walker Buehler’s Updated Padres Scouting Report

Before fully diving into his struggles this year, it’s important to understand what type of pitcher Buehler is at this point in his career. The 31-year-old Vanderbilt alum was a first-round pick in 2015 by the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he holds a 62-34 career record with a 3.69 earned run average. The righty has managed to strike out 927 hitters in just about the same amount of innings, but his main issue has been staying on the field.

Buehler had a stretch between 2019-2021 where he struck out 200 hitters in back-to-back full seasons (with COVID-19 shortening the 2020 campaign). After 2021, he hasn’t managed to toss 150 innings. In fact, 2019 and 2021 were the only two times the starter has accomplished that feat in his nine-season career. 

A Magical 2025 (But Short) Run 

Buehler’s injuries have made him a rather inconsistent rotation piece in the last few years, but he seemed to have turned back the clock in a couple of appearances with the Philadelphia Phillies last year. Buehler logged a 3-0 record, allowing just one earned run over 13.2 innings for a really impressive 0.66 ERA. He struck out just eight hitters while relinquishing six walks, and it was an extremely small sample size, but the signs of him being able to unlock performances reminiscent of his prime were there. 

Diminishing Velocity

In 2026, his numbers have tumbled. Buehler is on pace to break the 150 innings mark for the first time in five years, but his 5.36 ERA and 1.44 WHIP shows that hitters aren’t having nearly the amount of trouble they once did while facing him.

The diminishing velocity is the first rung to address. What was once a firm, high-90s four-seam fastball has fallen to an average of 94.0 mph, putting Buehler in the 40th percentile among all MLB pitchers (per Baseball Savant). There are ways to offset this issue, and building a more diversified pitch arsenal is a great way to start. 

Buehler has explored that route, featuring a mix that now includes the following seven pitches: a cutter, four-seamer, sinker, slider, knuckle curve, changeup and sweeper. He’s had to lean off of the four-seamer, as opposing hitters are collecting a .393 batting average against it. The slider has been his best tool, as he’s allowed just five hits in 42 plate appearances (.122 AVG) that have ended with the pitch.

Quality Contact Control

Unfortunately for the veteran hurler, the quality of contact has really spiked. Batters are managing a 42.2 percent hard-hit rate (batted balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater), which puts him in the 25th percentile league-wide. The average exit velocity of 90.5 mph (15th percentile) that he's allowing falls right in line, and with below-average whiff and chase rates, he’s been hit around quite a bit in his age-31 season. 

Silver Lining: Contact Trajectory

The silver lining for Buehler is two-fold: he has his varied arsenal, and he’s not allowing opposing hitters to launch the ball on him very often. While he’s allowing hard-hit balls, a lot of them are on the ground, as shown by his 46.3 percent ground ball rate (72nd percentile). 

His 4.48 expected ERA implies he’s run into his fair share of bad luck, but at this stage of his career, Buehler needs to be a finesse pitcher, keeping hitters off balance and forcing weaker contact. If he combines that with an already remarkable groundball rate, we could see Buehler return to form and serve as a pivotal part in a Padres playoff run. 

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