A.J. Preller Loves Blockbusters, So Which Team Represents the Padres' Ideal Trade Deadline Partner?

[Randy Holt]

While a multi-game deficit and a handful of teams ahead of them in the National League Wild Card race isn't the most ideal set of circumstances for the San Diego Padres, their weekend sweep of the Miami Marlins likely gave A.J. Preller all the clearance he needed to work in an additive direction ahead of next week's trade deadline. With only the lowly Colorado and San Francisco organizations standing in their way prior to August 3, the expectation is that the Friars fancy themselves buyers at the present moment. 

It's at least a mildly more encouraging picture than last week, when we didn't any level of clarity over which direction the team could head. Buying doesn't necessarily mean keeping all of their current major-league talent, however. There's a path where the team trades one of their high-leverage relievers (Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon) with an eye on adding starting pitching and catapulting themselves square into the middle of the NL Wild Card race. 

And that's an important note within all of this. The Padres don't have an upper-tier farm system; in fact, their minor-league talent pool generally ranks among the league's worst (if not at the very bottom). Even within the context of buying, Preller is likely going to have to move impact talent if he seeks to add impact talent in turn. That means that even buying is going to result in someone like Miller or Morejon finding their way to a new organization in the name of improvement elsewhere. While those aren't the only appealing names the team has on their roster, it feels like at least one would have to go for the necessary improvements to be made to other areas of the team.

With that in mind, which prospective trade partner represents the most ideal organization with which to strike a deal?

The Milwaukee Brewers are a team that immediately springs to mind. This is for two reasons. The first is that they can offer the Padres at least one major-league caliber starting pitcher in a trade for one of Miller or Morejon. Someone like Logan Henderson represents exactly the type of arm the Padres would covet. He's having an exceptional year (3.05 ERA, 2.98 FIP in eight starts) pitching in the latter half of the Brewers' rotation and isn't even eligible for arbitration until 2029. There are other arms that could be appealing here (Robert Gasser, Coleman Crow), but Henderson and some combination of prospects would be an ideal path given the Padres' current shortcomings in their starting staff. 

The prospect component represents the other reason Milwaukee is such an ideal trade partner. The Brewers have a system lauded by essentially every outlet, with six prospects inside of MLB Pipeline's Top 100. While we wouldn't necessarily expect one of those six in a potential deal alongside an upside play like Henderson, it speaks to the strength of their system to have such a consistent presence throughout that list. 

Overall, it's a team with which the Padres have a transactional history and can help to fill a need. The Brewers are in need of some starting pitching help in their own right given injuries, but they're also in search of relief help. If the Padres were to part with one of Miller or Morejon, then a move here presents plenty of logic for both parties (with room for either to seek out other organizations for additional needs). 

In a similar vein, the New York Yankees could represent the type of organization that represents the ideal partner for Preller. Like the Brewers, the Padres have a history of trades with the Yankees (the Juan Soto deal being most notable among them). And, like Milwaukee, New York has the ability to provide the Padres with what they need ahead of this deadline. The dynamic is only slightly different. 

On the minor-league side of things, the Yankees do not boast the farm system depth that the Brewers have. What they do have, though, is pitching in abundance. Roughly 20 of the team's top 30 prospects come from the mound, with many featuring an ETA of 2026 or 2027. Could a package involving someone like Will Warren and additional minor=league arms make sense in a deal? Absolutely, but that would also come at a similar expense in that the Padres would be likely to part with Miller or Morejon in such a scenario. It's similar contexts and similar needs from both New York & Milwaukee, which would then come down to which minor-league system Preller and the scouting department favor more. 

That doesn't mean those are the only two teams worth watching out for ahead of Aug. 3. Nor does any trade for impact mean that Preller will be forced to send Miller or Morejon the opposite way; it just feels like the most efficient way of shifting the fortunes of the current roster. Preller could also approach Detroit about Casey Mize, the Mets about someone like Clay Holmes, or the Royals (another team with which there's a recent transactional history) about old friends Michael Wacha & Seth Lugo. Options exist here toward improving the Padres' most vulnerable phase of their roster. 

But if we're talking about the type of deal Preller loves to make — the one where he gets to turn the baseball world on its head — then facilitating a deal with the Milwaukee Brewers or New York Yankees is the best bet.

View full article