Randy Vásquez Has Rediscovered His Best Form, Giving Padres Honest-To-Goodness Pitching Depth

[Randy Holt]

There was a part of the season early on where it looked like Randy Vásquez wasn't just going to be a factor in the San Diego Padres rotation, but an absolutely crucial element of it.  Grabbing one of the team's many rotation spots early in spring camp, Vásquez turned in a 2.94 ERA through March & April before regressing slightly to a still-respectable 3.71 mark in May. He demonstrated proper command between the two months that illustrated growth from the issues that had plagued him earlier in his career, with an 8.0 percent walk rate in the first month that improved to 5.4 percent by the following one. 

Despite the improved results that came via better control, however, there were some warning signs early on. His inability to generate much on the strikeout side gave way to quality contact, with a hard-hit rate that grew from an already-high 44.4 percent in April to over 46 percent in May. As opposing hitters began to elevate their contact, the triumphant vibe with which Vásquez was working early on began to wane. In June, Vásquez was hit hard.

That early steadiness gave way to a skyrocketing 7.84 ERA in June. Opposing hitters hit nearly .370 off of Vásquez while reaching base at a .423 clip. His hard-hit rate against checked in at an even 50.0 percent. Even through the recent improvement to which we will eventually reach in his 2026 chronology, his percentile distribution is a tough watch.

Vásquez's last appearance of the month was of the bulk variety, wherein he surrendered seven runs across 3.1 innings of work. He, nevertheless, got a start his next time out in July and was unable to complete four innings after being struck by a comebacker and experiencing a fainting spell on his way to get x-rayed. It was 17 days before we'd see him on the mound again. 

Such is the nature of the Padres' collection of starting pitchers in 2026 that Vásquez remained an integral part of the staff through those struggles. Upon his return from the injured list, though, three of his final four appearances in July were in relief, with his lone starting stint coming across 2.2 innings as Craig Stammen introduced his "pitching chaos" to avoid any of his starters working too many times through the order. 

In the subsequent weeks, however, Germán Márquez has been designated for assignment while Griffin Canning has largely lost his grip on any role outside of mop-up duty. That's left Vásquez starting twice in three chances in August, where the results have at least started to trend back toward where he was early in the season. 

Starting his first two times out and working bulk in the third, Vásquez has worked to a 3.38 ERA this month. That's his best mark since the opening month of the campaign. His walk rate, at 3.3 percent, is his best of the season, while his 3.39 FIP indicates that he's not getting away with a whole lot, either. What's especially crucial is that his hard-hit rate reads just 33.3 percent. That's easily his best avoidance of quality contact this year. A key development has been his change in usage:

The three-fastballs concept is nothing new for Vásquez. Nor should we expect any change in usage to have an impact on his characteristically-low strikeout rate. Leaning on the cutter, though, alongside the sinker (and both over the four-seamer) has yielded some really positive results. Most notable is the fact that it's helped him to reestablish some command. He's in the zone nearly 57 percent of the time, features a first-strike rate over 70 percent, and an 18.5 percent called-strike rate. Those are all season highs for an individual month. Factor in the decline in hard contact, and you've got a pitcher capable of contributing in serious fashion down the stretch.

Of course, it remains to be seen just how much of a factor Vásquez will actually be as a member of the rotation. With Joe Musgrove's return becoming more imminent by the day, one of Vásquez or Walker Buehler will be pushed out as a result. Given Vásquez's more recent work in relief, he's likely to be the one. But having this version of him on standby as a spot starter or for bulk purposes remains a much more enticing option that it might otherwise have been considering where things stood less than two months ago.

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