NL Wild Card Race Temperature Check: Padres Improve Position, Open Up New Postseason Path

[Steve Drumwright]

This weekend in San Francisco changed a lot regarding the San Diego Padres' postseason possibilities. Not only did the Padres sweep the Giants in three games, but they went from a half-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks to 2½ games up thanks to a seven-game winning streak. The Padres are 81-78 with 13 games remaining, while the Diamondbacks are 79-71 with 12 games remaining. The swing game comes Thursday in the Friars' finale of a four-game series vs. the Colorado Rockies.

Of course, still looming is the three-game set to end the regular season against Arizona at Petco Park. There is a chance that the Padres will have less at stake in that series than you would have thought entering this past weekend.

Elsewhere in the NL wild-card race, the Padres also got good news. There is a chance the Friars could improve their seeding for the postseason. The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies, once head and shoulders ahead of the Padres, are now tied for the top two NL wild-card spots, 1½ games clear of San Diego.

Depending on your outlook, the Padres should either just sit in the No. 6 seed (No. 3 wild card) or try to jump one or both of the Cubs and Phillies. Whether that is possible, is another thing. In the No. 5 or 6 position, the Padres would be on the road. The No. 4 seed would host the No. 5 seed in the best-of-three NL Wild Card Series. The No. 6 seed will be the visiting team against the worst of the three division winners, which is currently Atlanta, 2½ games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Milwaukee Brewers are 2½ up on the Dodgers for the No. 1 seed. The top two teams get first-round byes.

Let's take a look at the remaining schedules for the four teams battling for the three NL wild cards.

San Diego Padres

If you don't have this memorized by now, are you even a Padres fan? Just kidding (sort of).

As mentioned above, the Friars begin the final two weeks in Denver against the Rockies, MLB's worst team at 55-94. The Rockies have been much more competitive this season as a whole, but they are still destined to lose 100 games for the fourth year in a row. The Padres, in order, will send right-handers Casey Mize, Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray and Michael King to the mound. After riding left-hander Adrian Morejon and right-handed closer Mason Miller hard in the last week-plus, a few blowouts to give them extra rest would certainly be nice.

This weekend, the Padres return home against a dangerous Miami Marlins team. The Marlins have some weapons to play spoiler and will have a chance to do so (as I will expound upon in a bit), with a combination of pitching and power. Remember, this is the series the Padres swept in July as they started their second-half push.

Then we come to the final week of the season. First up, after their next day off next Monday, is three games on the road against the Dodgers. At that point, the Dodgers will have the NL West wrapped up and could still be jockeying with Atlanta and the Brewers for a first-round bye. Rivals will always want to ruin the other's season, so those three games will be intense as always. Then the Diamondbacks come to Petco Park for the last three games of the regular season. Mize, Buehler and Ray are lined up for that series barring right-hander Randy Vasquez getting a spot start during this current stretch of 10 consecutive games. That also puts King in position to start the playoff opener, but also available to jump up and pitch the final Sunday of the season if needed.

The Padres and Diamondbacks are currently tied in the season series 5-5, so if it comes to that, whoever wins two games in the series will win the tiebreaker. The Padres, however, lose the tiebreakers to the Phillies (0-6) and Cubs (1-5), so they would need to finish ahead of either to get a better seed.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Remember how we talked about the Marlins playing spoiler? They could be the Padres' best friend to start this week as they begin a nine-game road trip against the Diamondbacks. Arizona has already been swept in Miami and is the definition of a .500 team, having gone 24-22 since July 25. The Padres have gone 26-19 in that same stretch, including 1-5 to begin that run.

Arizona is in the middle of a nine-game homestand, which opened with a 1-2 series against the Texas Rangers, a team that hadn't won a road series in two months. After the Marlins, the Diamondbacks host the New York Yankees, who are pretty locked in as the AL's top wild-card team at the moment. Right-handers Cam Schlittler and Gerrit Cole will each get a start this weekend.

Before the Diamondbacks come to Petco Park, they will also face the Rockies, this one being three games in Denver. Like the Padres, Arizona will have next Monday off, meaning that they will come directly to San Diego after playing in the Denver altitude, which can sometimes be a challenge for a team for at least a day. 

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have 12 games remaining and have a favorable schedule this week, although that is on the road. After a day off Monday, the Phillies have a pair of games against the Washington Nationals and then four against the New York Mets. Both teams are capable of playing a spoiler role and the Phillies have lost seven of their last 11.

After that, the Phillies return home for the final six regular-season games. But those are two tough series, facing the Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays, the probable No. 1 seeds in the NL and AL, respectively. The Phillies went 1-6 vs. the Cubs, thus losing the tiebreaker.

Chicago Cubs

You can make a good argument that the Cubs have the toughest schedule in the final two weeks. And their travel schedule doesn't help. The Cubs wrap up a six-game homestand beginning Monday against Atlanta, then travel to the Cincinnati Reds for three games. The Reds (70-79) are the cushiest opponent remaining for the Cubs.

The Marlins come back into play as the Cubs go back home for three games vs. Miami. There are days off before and after the Reds series for the Cubs, mitigating the short road trip to Cincinnati. But there is not a break for the Cubs following the Marlins series as they travel to the Boston Red Sox to finish the regular season. The series could mean nothing to the Red Sox, who enter the final two weeks as the probable No. 2 wild card in the AL.

Conclusion

The Padres are sitting in a good spot entering the Rockies series and that might be the best position for them entering the postseason. As the last wild card, the Friars are likely to face Atlanta in the NL Wild Card Series. (Atlanta has a fairly challenging schedule in the Cubs, Houston Astros, Reds and Marlins.) San Diego would need a lot to happen in order to climb over the Cubs and Phillies and claim the top wild-card spot.

So it really comes down to which team would the Padres rather play on the road: the Cubs or Phillies? While the Phillies have been struggling recently, they have two weeks to correct that and have the starting pitching that can shut an opponent down, not to mention the game-changing power of Kyle Schwarber. The Cubs, on the other hand, have had to scramble all season to put competent starters out there and their bullpen is a mess. Offense is the strength of the Cubs, who can trot out probable NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong and a loaded lineup behind him.

Considering the Padres were swept at Wrigley Field, including a forgettable 23-3 loss in the series finale, a couple weeks before the All-Star break, the Friars would probably love a chance to redeem themselves for that, as well as last year's three-game NL Wild Card Series loss to the Cubs.

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