Nick Pivetta's Game 2 Start Will Follow A Familiar Padres Formula

[Randy Holt]

After watching Michael King carry a no-hitter into the seventh inning of their Game 1 matchup against the Chicago Cubs, the San Diego Padres will send another savvy veteran to the mound in Game 2 in the form of Nick Pivetta. Regardless of how well he performs, though, we shouldn't necessarily expect the process to look quite the same as last night.

King always seemed destined to turn in at least six innings of work; in his 15 starts since the beginning of July, he had only failed to complete that workload on three separate occasions (and two of those were five full frames). Pivetta, however, doesn't have that type of volume on which to stand. 

Pivetta went down in April with a right elbow injury. His rehab was shaky, including an abrupt departure from an outing in early August following additional tightness. While he went on to throw an additional 30 pitches in the bullpen that same night, we didn't see him make a start for the Padres again until September 7. Three starts followed to close out the year. 

This is how those final four outings looked for him:

• September 7th: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB
• September 13th: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 0 BB
• September 18th: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 K, 1 BB
• September 24th: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 1 BB

All told, Pivetta finished the month with a 1.45 ERA (3.05 FIP) across 18.2 innings, 18 strikeouts (24.3 K%), and a pair of walks (2.7 BB%). As ever with Pivetta, the name of the game is efficiency. While he hasn't provided tremendous volume as he works his way back to full strength, he's been able to turn in just enough of a workload for the Padres' elite bullpen to take over. In doing so, he's left the team in a great situation each time as far as the scoreboard is concerned. 

When he takes the ball at Petco Park on Wednesday night, we should expect it to look largely the same as we did throughout September.

It's obviously difficult to account for what type of production we might see out of the Cubs' offense. While they were the league's best run producers in the regular season, King stifled them entirely in Game 1 largely on the strength of his sweeper. Maybe they rebound against Pivetta and send him to the bench early. If he's able to turn in a continued level of steadiness, though, one expects that their plan will look much the same as it has been since his return. 

Each time out, Craig Stammen gave Pivetta just about two turns through the order. He faced 17 hitters in each of his first two starts back and 20 in each of his third & fourth. He was immediately followed by a lefty; Kyle Hart threw an inning in the first two, Wandy Peralta came out in the third, and Yuki Matsui followed him in the fourth.

It's likely we'll see something similar play out on Wednesday night. If Pivetta can stay the course and work at least four full frames, then you're likely looking at a left-handed arm in relief, especially if the Padres are in a position where Pete Crow-Armstrong or Michael Busch (or even Ian Happ, given his right-handed woes) are due up. King's excellence on Tuesday also left the bullpen quite fresh, with only Matsui & the return of Joe Musgrove featuring after his seven innings. 

Which means that the bullpen is almost entirely in order ahead of Game 2. If Pivetta can give the Padres anything close to what he did down the stretch of the regular season, San Diego should be in legitimately excellent shape with a chance to advance to the National League Division Series in a sweeping effort.

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