Jackson Merrill's Next Goal Involves Breaking Into the 30-30 Club

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Jackson Merrill’s 2026 season is a complicated one to discuss. He recorded his first 25-25 season, combining terrific value on the basepaths with a powerful second half at the plate—not to mention his incredible defense in center field—to contribute 4.2 fWAR to the San Diego Padres' cause. Yet actually getting to that number wasn't easy.

Merrill became the fourth player in Padres franchise history to record a season with 25 or more home runs and 25 or more stolen bases, joining Fernando Tatis Jr. (4 times: 2021, 2023, 2025 and 2026), Wil Myers (2016) and Reggie Sanders (1999). He and Tatis are the only MLB teammates who reached those figures this season.

Everything carries much more value when we appreciate his youth. Merrill has the second-highest number of home runs (66) by a Padres player aged 23 or younger in franchise history, behind only his teammate Tatis (81). He also ranks second in hits among players aged 23 or younger in Padres history, with 434, behind Roberto Alomar (497).

So, the 30-30 threshold is not that far away for Merrill. I think he missed the opportunity to reach it when he went through an inconsistent start at the plate between March and June, with a poor .213/.271/.343 slash line and just a 72 wRC+ in 343 plate appearances. That stretch accounted for 51.6% of his 664 plate appearances for the entire year. Without a doubt, it made a difference, but it also demonstrated Merrill’s ability to focus and make decisive adjustments that changed his season.

The breakout began after July 19, when Merrill started punishing pitches that were not fastballs, posting a .293/.321/.547 slash line in 81 plate appearances that finished with off-speed or breaking balls. Compared with the previous stretch, which covered 101 plate appearances, his xSLG increased from .371 to .570, his BABIP went from .235 to .315, and his barrel rate more than doubled, from 8.2% to 16.9%.

In the chart on the right, you can see how Merrill’s swing generated more hard contact, with greater production in several locations outside the strike zone against pitches that were not fastballs.

Likewise, according to Statcast, Merrill ranks in the 90th percentile among position players, including the 99th percentile in arm value (6), the 94th percentile in fielding run value (12), and the 91st percentile in both outs above average (6) and arm strength (92.0 mph). He's simply superlative defender in center field, and he's got the baserunning chops to match.

His mark of 6 Baserunning Runs was the best of his career and leads San Diego Padres players over the last two seasons. Merrill’s ability to steal bases was the complement that placed him among the league’s best baserunners. Along with the development of his power, that progress makes him a strong candidate to reach a 30-30 season in the future.

But even without another jump in his power numbers, his floor in all three main facets of the game (hitting, fielding, and running) is as high as anyone not named Fernando Tatis Jr.

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