Padres Free-Agent Case: Michael King Reestablished His Value, Likely Leading to an Exit

[Steve Drumwright]

Is there a direct correlation to the San Diego Padres making three consecutive trips to the postseason (a franchise record) to the trade of a certain enigmatic right fielder?

Maybe. One thing that you can certainly say is that right-handed starter Michael King has been a big part of however you view the Padres’ success in this recent stretch.

Since being one of five players the Padres acquired in the Juan Soto deal on Dec. 7, 2023, King has been a vital member of the rotation, with all but one of his 78 regular-season games coming as a starter. For the Yankees, King made just 19 starts in 114 appearances.

Now, the Padres appear on the verge of losing that stabilizing force. That's not their fault—this is how baseball works. He isn’t the only member of the team with an uncertain future, after all. King is likely to opt out of his contract, a three-year, $75 million deal that would pay him $28 million in 2027 and $30 million in 2028. He received a qualifying offer last offseason, meaning he can't be given one again.

Michael King's 2026 Season At A Glance

First, let’s address those 2025 injuries, the most significant of which was a long thoracic nerve injury in his right shoulder, sidelining him from late May to early August. Before he could make his second start back, he went on the injured list again with inflammation in his left knee. He came back a month later to make four starts.

As for his 2026 campaign, let’s separate the regular season from the postseason first. King was supposed to be the Padres’ No. 3 starter entering spring training. Joe Musgrove’s spring training setback from Tommy John surgery moved King up a rung on the ladder. just behind Nick Pivetta. Then Pivetta went down with an injury in his fourth regular-season start. Suddenly, King was the No. 1.

After a little bumpiness in the first half, King turned it up a notch in the second half. While not dominant, he was very good. King put up a 2.93 ERA over his final 13 starts, including a stretch of eight straight quality starts. That put his final regular-season numbers at a 4.13 FIP (3.21 ERA) with a 9.2% walk rate and 21% strikeout rate, the latter two of which were career worsts over a full season. However, he did log 185 innings and made all 32 starts he was scheduled for.

Then came what he did in the postseason. In Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series vs. the Chicago Cubs, King had a no-hitter for 6⅓ innings, ultimately striking out eight over seven innings in an 8-0 victory. Then against the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of the NL Division Series, he turned in five standout innings, striking out six and allowing a run in what would be a 4-3 loss. With the bullpen short its two biggest arms in Game 3, King came out of the bullpen to pick up a two-inning save on minimal rest.

It was just about everything you could have asked for out of a No. 1 pitcher.

Why the Padres Should Re-sign Michael King

As it stands at the moment, you can definitely count Musgrove and Randy Vasquez in the starting rotation, relying on Musgrove to figure out why his arm didn’t bounce back in a starting role at the end of the season. Pivetta is likely coming back, too, if the Padres feel he can hold up for a full season in 2027.

But with questions about the health of Musgrove and Pivetta, the Padres need an ace who they can count on. With his questions from 2025 behind him, King is that guy.

There is no other reason that would outweigh what he would mean to the starting rotation.

Why the Padres Should Not Re-sign Michael King

King is going to be the second- or third-most coveted starting pitching on the free-agent market this offseason. After the obvious choice of Tarik Skubal, King is in the next group of starters that includes Freddy Peralta and Taylor Rogers. Older starters Sonny Gray and Kevin Gausman would be part of the next tier.

That also means there will be plenty of suitors for the 31-year-old King. That will drive up his price. Of course, how that all plays out with the lockout looming is another thing. Will there be a rush for some of the top free agents to find a new home? Will owners across MLB be willing to fork out big-time contracts before crying poor in negotiations?

The Padres would have to be comfortable signing King to a term of at least five years (and perhaps a six- or seven-year deal) at around $25 million to $28 million per year. Already with long-term commitments to Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts through 2033 and Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill through 2034, another singular big-money deal could be too much for the budget that owners Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones give to president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. Perhaps that money is better spent on two (or more) players over a shorter term.

The Bottom Line

Without knowing about how Feliciano and Jones will approach their first offseason as owners, It feels like King will opt-out of his contract and hit free agency. If he does hit the market, the chances are slim that he returns. Could Preller, given that authority by ownership, pull out a surprise for the second straight year and lock up King? That would open up a whole new playbook for the Padres entering this offseason, especially if a new deal for the right-hander doesn't prevent the front office from making other high-octane pursuits.

View full article